What are all these brands seeing in the sport now?

Pop Shmoke
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KTM bought Husky, then gasgas, now they have 3 brands in the market. Beta is entering the mx market at the end of this year, Triumph is entering right after that. Ducati is then coming a year after. These are huge corporations who spend millions of dollars on research as to where they need to invest to grow the companies. They would not go into something like this blind or without a huge amount of data showing that there is an opening in the sport that they can take advantage of. If only 1 brand was entering the market maybe you could say theyre taking a risk on going all in but 3 new entrants plus 2 more from ktm so 5 new bikes? Plus not only are all of these brands coming into the sport competing against the established brands, but they also know theyre competing against the other new bikes coming in. All of these companies cant be wrong, theyre seeing something. 
 

What are all of these companies seeing in the sport in 2023 that they didnt see before? It cant be the covid sales because they had to be working on this before covid and they would have known that huge bump would be temporary. The last new brand before husky/gasgas I can remember was canondale, why did no new bikes come in the glory years of the 80’s, 90’s, or private jet era of the 00’s which seemed to be the peak of casual riding among the public? All of these brands arent dumb, what are they seeing about the sport in 2023 that were not seeing?
 

Maybe india creating its own sx league, world sx, a new australian gncc series…etc plus hundreds of millions of people in other countries like india/china entering the middle class they see that the rest of the world is poised to explode in bike sales? The usa has 330 million people, thats a small fraction of what some other countries like china/india have. You have indonesia with 273 million ppl, pakistan with 231 million, nigeria 213 million, egypt has 109 million ppl and their population is predicted to double by the end of the century. With all of these huge populations and more and more ppl leaving poverty if even small % of ppl in each country get into riding thats still many times more than the us population in potential bike sales. Since racing is used to promote/sell product, this has to be what theyre seeing, right? Just because riding in the us/europe/australia may have peaked it definitely could be possible that the sport is going to see an explosion world wide just due to population numbers alone plus millions/billions of ppl entering the middle class. 

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Cliffy615
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11/8/2023 12:01am Edited Date/Time 11/8/2023 12:17am

I have 3 assumptions, and they are just my oppinion of why they may be,

1. There’s no hiding from the fact that electric is coming, mx is the only forms of motorcycling where range isn’t really an issue so it’s a great way to develop electric tech in the harshest of applications before the need for longer range on roads

2. From a marketing perspective how many cool mx vids go Viral, Moto videos, media and content is impressive and cool to watch even if you’re not in Moto so to get your brand circulating quickly on the internet, particularly with how much the sport is growing has to be opening some eyes,

wsx, Indian sx, smx, and also gypsy tales and all these other podcasts and content creators popping up are all helping to give the sport way more exposure and get more eyes on the sport and these brands want in before it blows up 

3. These predominantly road motorcycle brands are likely looking towards the KTM group and wondering how in such a short period of time they got bikes to run up at the front of the grid in Moto gp, is data they have from off-road helping them, non of these other teams will have access to that data as they don’t run off road bikes, perhaps it doesn’t, but in my ignorant thought process you’d likely learn a lot more about suspension and it’s data with suspension that compresses and rebounds to the extent and mx or off-road bike does, I know they’re different disciplines and requiring different things but KTM group have data to compare, others simply don’t 

just my 2 cents 

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11/8/2023 12:16am

Funny you started this post. I had the same thought enter my head when I saw beta was coming out with an mx model now too. First Stark comes out with an electric bike now we have Ducati and Triumph trying to compete in motocross/supercross! I thought our sport was pretty small/insignificant in the grand scheme of sports. Where the hell is all this money and attention coming from? I thought if anything we’d be LOSING brands over the next 5 years (sorry Suzuki.)

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Marty1028
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11/8/2023 12:31am Edited Date/Time 11/8/2023 12:31am

I believe it’s a basis of competition, as with what Cliffy said, you have the KTM group coming into MotoGP and has become a top team in a matter of a few years. In turn it’s most likely pissing off the high ups of Ducati, now they want to give KTM a run for their money in the off-road world. Beta is a different story, they’ve wanted to go Moto for a while, I believe they’re just now coming around now due to them being a smaller company and taking more time to develop a bike.

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11/8/2023 2:01am

The Japanese brands had a monopoly on mx sales for a long time and maybe got a bit complacent. KTM came along with innovation, investment etc and became the biggest name in mx and off-road after being almost bankrupt a decade earlier. They committed to the sport and it paid them back.

They've used that income from off-road to springboard into the road market and then into motogp. Maybe there's a bigger income from off-road than people realise? Spares are constantly being bought as the bikes take a hammering ( for example; imagine the rise in spares orders after every extreme enduro). Road bikes don't need anything like the upkeep that off road bikes do; a lot of road riders get their bikes out on dry days and don't actually clock up much wear and tear. Also, the age demographic of road riders is getting older and sales are falling every year.

Also, I'm guessing an MXGP or SX team can be run and financed for a fraction of the cost of a motoGP team, but a winning off road team will sell a lot of bikes for that smaller investment. Those bikes will then help sell a LOT of spare parts.

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The Shop

Alan Dove
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11/8/2023 3:06am

MX is a relatively young person sport. With sport bike sales falling and probably aging demographics elsewhere they want to capture the young audience who will identify with their brand throughout life. Building a dirtbike ain't rocket science either.

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ns503
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11/8/2023 3:15am

I don't get it. The pie isn't that big.

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rileymx
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11/8/2023 3:22am

what really surprises me is the absent of a american made brand.......being one of the biggest market in the world, and a very patriotic one...... its for me surprising that usa doesnt have its own brand of dirt bikes......

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Alan Dove
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11/8/2023 3:37am
ns503 wrote:

I don't get it. The pie isn't that big.

This is from 2010 https://ultimatemotorcycling.com/2010/12/23/motorcycle-buyers-average-a… and I expect this has only got worse. Add in decline in Sports Bike sales and you can see why companies like Ducati are trying to diversify and appeal tio a younger audience.  I suspect it's less about the number of bikes they can sell in the actual dirt bike scene, but overall brand perception. Offers chances to make more marketing material too.

Triumph and Ducati can probably build these kind of bikes in their sleep so their breakeven point is probably very achievable. 

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Spoonguy
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11/8/2023 4:05am

Multi billion dollar corporations like Honda and Yamaha don't build and race dirt bikes for the tiny profit they make from the number they sell. Although it would seem when you see the cost of dirt bikes compared to street bikes it appears dirt bikes would be more profitable per unit, the amount they sell just isn't big for them. They do it for brand awareness, and brand image. Racing dirt bikes sells Ridgelines, snowblowers, pianos, and generators. And one would think brands like Triumph and Ducati are not entering this market to lose. You want to believe Triumph and Ducati see the relative lack of innovation amongst the Japanese makers and see the KTM groups explosive growth and exposure by racing and want some. Not all the current makers of dirt bikes will survive the next five years, and most probably it will be Japanese makers dropping out. And one can not forget these bikes may be stepping stones for a Dakar effort.

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11/8/2023 4:16am
rileymx wrote:
what really surprises me is the absent of a american made brand.......being one of the biggest market in the world, and a very patriotic one...... its...

what really surprises me is the absent of a american made brand.......being one of the biggest market in the world, and a very patriotic one...... its for me surprising that usa doesnt have its own brand of dirt bikes......

Alta was an American brand, before another American brand, Harley Davidson invested, then divested in them!

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1
11/8/2023 4:23am

Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with the older generation. Ducati wants to do the same. 

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tek14
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11/8/2023 5:04am
Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with...

Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with the older generation. Ducati wants to do the same. 

Both should have come out with E-mx bikes also. I dont think there is enough ICE years left for all these brands to kill development cost. 

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AMetts
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11/8/2023 5:06am
Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with...

Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with the older generation. Ducati wants to do the same. 

I can certainly see that being the case, I ride dual sport and ADV bikes and the Triumph crowd is certainly older. I can see a similar reason for Beta to enter MX as well not only to expand but to also get a younger demographic. I go the these dual sport rides where the average age is probably 55 and there is a ton of Betas. Go to a local Sprint enduro where average age is probably 30 and there is hardly any. 

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wwdiii
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11/8/2023 5:06am

I have a different thought on why other brands are popping up and other countries are getting in the mix for motocross and off-road etc.

The uptick in popularity in my simple mind is cost.  Off-road dirt bikes prices have escalated like everything else.  But compared to other hobbies it’s cheap.  A new bass boat is 100k.  I’d guess a wake board boat is the same or more.  4-5 year old used saltwater flats fishing boats popular on the Texas coast run 60k ish.  With rust on the trailer to boot.  Hunting cost have sky rocketed, 30k for a SxS is not uncommon.  An upper end rifle scope is 1500 to 2500 bucks.  Fuel cost to drive half way across the bid state of Texas to hunt is serious money to some.  I dabbled in SCCA racing 25 years ago.  I bet it cost 3-4 times as much to race in lower class like Spec Mazda than motocross.  To race a late model at a local short track motor alone is 15k minimum.  

It boils down to this, dirt bikes are still a lower cost option than some other outdoor activities.  I’ll throw modestly out the window. I’ve done well in life but I’m not going to drop a 100k on a new bass boat or 30k on a dangerous game hunt to Africa.  I can spring for 10k for a new dirt bike.

Dirt bikes are still one of the cheaper games in town.  Manufacturers, race promoters see this. 

 

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Airick
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11/8/2023 5:07am

Maybe these companies saw the sales spike during COVID and want in on the action. That would seem pretty short sighted though.

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Pop Shmoke
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11/8/2023 5:47am
Alan Dove wrote:
MX is a relatively young person sport. With sport bike sales falling and probably aging demographics elsewhere they want to capture the young audience who will...

MX is a relatively young person sport. With sport bike sales falling and probably aging demographics elsewhere they want to capture the young audience who will identify with their brand throughout life. Building a dirtbike ain't rocket science either.

I could definitely see this being one of the reasons. Its common knowledge that sport bike sales have fallen off a cliff. For Ducati especially, who basically only makes sport bikes thats a huge hit. I’m sure some of the drop has been picked up by overseas sales, but still it would be smart for them to diversify.

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Falcon
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11/8/2023 5:54am Edited Date/Time 11/8/2023 5:55am
ns503 wrote:

I don't get it. The pie isn't that big.

That doesn't matter if you can steal someone else's slice. 

All the talk and speculation of Suzuki getting out of the MX market is going to resonate much more poignantly with three more competitors pushing development. 

 

Edited for clarity.

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hanzhonglboy1
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11/8/2023 5:54am
Pop Shmoke wrote:
KTM bought Husky, then gasgas, now they have 3 brands in the market. Beta is entering the mx market at the end of this year, Triumph...

KTM bought Husky, then gasgas, now they have 3 brands in the market. Beta is entering the mx market at the end of this year, Triumph is entering right after that. Ducati is then coming a year after. These are huge corporations who spend millions of dollars on research as to where they need to invest to grow the companies. They would not go into something like this blind or without a huge amount of data showing that there is an opening in the sport that they can take advantage of. If only 1 brand was entering the market maybe you could say theyre taking a risk on going all in but 3 new entrants plus 2 more from ktm so 5 new bikes? Plus not only are all of these brands coming into the sport competing against the established brands, but they also know theyre competing against the other new bikes coming in. All of these companies cant be wrong, theyre seeing something. 
 

What are all of these companies seeing in the sport in 2023 that they didnt see before? It cant be the covid sales because they had to be working on this before covid and they would have known that huge bump would be temporary. The last new brand before husky/gasgas I can remember was canondale, why did no new bikes come in the glory years of the 80’s, 90’s, or private jet era of the 00’s which seemed to be the peak of casual riding among the public? All of these brands arent dumb, what are they seeing about the sport in 2023 that were not seeing?
 

Maybe india creating its own sx league, world sx, a new australian gncc series…etc plus hundreds of millions of people in other countries like india/china entering the middle class they see that the rest of the world is poised to explode in bike sales? The usa has 330 million people, thats a small fraction of what some other countries like china/india have. You have indonesia with 273 million ppl, pakistan with 231 million, nigeria 213 million, egypt has 109 million ppl and their population is predicted to double by the end of the century. With all of these huge populations and more and more ppl leaving poverty if even small % of ppl in each country get into riding thats still many times more than the us population in potential bike sales. Since racing is used to promote/sell product, this has to be what theyre seeing, right? Just because riding in the us/europe/australia may have peaked it definitely could be possible that the sport is going to see an explosion world wide just due to population numbers alone plus millions/billions of ppl entering the middle class. 

Husky and Gasgas were already brands before KTM that made plenty of dirt bikes. They were not as prominent, but they were certainly established.

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11/8/2023 6:01am

It just comes down to market trends and consumer demand. In the early 90's to 2000's, a lot of guys had a crotch rocket or street bike sitting in their garage. You just don't really see that anymore. Triumph and Ducati both had a lot of models sitting at my local shop untouched, to the point where the prices were slashed way below msrp or maybe sent back to factory when they couldn't sell. Every enduro/mx bike was sold year over year. Consumer tastes are just changing and it could be social media and now more people know about off road riding? But practically speaking, who has $15-20k to spend on a street bike they will hardly ever ride, and definitely not be able to ride safely with the current dynamic of drug addicts and phone users out on the roadways. 

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Pop Shmoke
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11/8/2023 7:36am Edited Date/Time 11/8/2023 7:40am

Yea ppl driving and texting is why me and my dad both quit riding on the street. A close family friend of ours was killed on his harley 2 years ago by a distracted driver and that was the final straw. The writing had been on the wall already, but that did it, after that it was impossible to enjoy riding on the street again. You have to ride so defensive and be so hyper aware of what everyone is doing and trying to predict everybodys moved 3 moves in advance that its exhausting and not enjoyable. Sux, but off road is where its at if you have a job/family etc and dont want to be killed/maimed. Obviously dirt bikes have risks too, but its much easier to choose for yourself how much risk you want to take on. On the street its out of your hands and its up to somebody else if they want to be a jackass and risk your life. 

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11/8/2023 8:42am

I think its probably a mix of things. When the Japanese bikes first came out , they were looked at like the chinese bikes are now. But the manufacturing methods are better all around these days and I think that China can build some competitive bikes. They have become great at making stuff , but a lot are copies of other brands. So now brands with established names, can get into the off road market for the cost of R&D and have china build most of the parts for their bikes. 

The amount of data collected by everybody, must also be showing that people are more open to buying new products from established brands. And like another post said, Dirt bikes are  cheaper than a lot of other forms of recreation even as expensive as they are. 

Also a great way to test out electric motors and components, and spread out the cost of manufacturing. They might be building the gas bikes to establish a foothold while they work on the electric bikes. As well as be able to be a part of the rule making that shapes the electric classes of the future. Getting a window into the future by being a part of that Rule making process. Especially if  motors and other parts will be shared across multiple platforms. They might have even been prototyping  an electric alongside the gas bike. 

They can use the same motors and controls on a wide range of off road and street motorcycles. Right now You have to develop an engine and 1000's of parts for that engine for each class of MX bike , and also each street motorcycle has a much more specific engine. With electric You could use a single  motor across multiple different platforms and make adjustments at the controler. Adding or removing battery capacity to get to the "class" of power output. 

 

  As well as giving them a way to get some younger riders , some great cross promotion. It is one of the great things about electric that I have been saying for years now.  All of a sudden You go from having to develop an engine and chassis to bring out a new model or go into a new segment, to developing a chassis and using a motor from one of the other bikes You make. And there is a lot less R&D to do. So Your cost to do it comes down.  And it also makes the other bikes You build cost less by building more of the same exact parts before needing a new mold or new tooling.  

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11/8/2023 9:07am
Pop Shmoke wrote:
Yea ppl driving and texting is why me and my dad both quit riding on the street. A close family friend of ours was killed on...

Yea ppl driving and texting is why me and my dad both quit riding on the street. A close family friend of ours was killed on his harley 2 years ago by a distracted driver and that was the final straw. The writing had been on the wall already, but that did it, after that it was impossible to enjoy riding on the street again. You have to ride so defensive and be so hyper aware of what everyone is doing and trying to predict everybodys moved 3 moves in advance that its exhausting and not enjoyable. Sux, but off road is where its at if you have a job/family etc and dont want to be killed/maimed. Obviously dirt bikes have risks too, but its much easier to choose for yourself how much risk you want to take on. On the street its out of your hands and its up to somebody else if they want to be a jackass and risk your life. 

Exactly this. I spent a few years doing a lot of commuting on a ktm690. Great on gas and pretty fun to get around traffic. But you can't even ride it comfortably in winter and then the exact dynamic you said, always being hyper aware and also terrified of someone pulling out from nowhere. After so many close calls and so many elderly or distracted drivers not seeing me, i ended up selling the bike. Sad about it because i miss my 690, but i always had this feeling deep down i would end up as road kill or an amputee at the hands of the type dirt bag / degenerate i despise. Own a ktm 500 now and its really much more rewarding and worthwhile to just ride mostly off road. Not worth the risk riding street bikes imo after doing it frequently for several years

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Alan Dove
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11/8/2023 10:52am
Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with...

Triumph execs explained it a bit during their initial launch announcement. They want to attract younger riders to their brand as they’ve mostly been popular with the older generation. Ducati wants to do the same. 

tek14 wrote:

Both should have come out with E-mx bikes also. I dont think there is enough ICE years left for all these brands to kill development cost. 

No where to race.

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sowers711
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11/8/2023 11:10am Edited Date/Time 11/8/2023 11:40am

ECC08FA3-BD76-453C-A426-D7C9378A84C0CFFB0F8A-DF4D-45BD-994C-D3350D1CAFBF23A5AB5E-C2F8-47F4-8242-4FDD3B007DCD

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dcg141
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11/8/2023 1:05pm

Everyone, including KTM was waiting for the big response from the Japanese to counter KTM. That never really happened. I mean they did go to E-start but never a 350 and letting the 2 stroke go and no big push into cross-country market. I think they are trying to take some of KTM's business and smell blood in the water with the Japanese and off-road. Pretty sure you will see 350's from them, and for sure cross country bikes and GNCC participation at some point. I don't think most people have their head around just how dominate KTM has become in competition bike sales. They own as of the 3rd quarter of 23, 53% of the US market in that category. 

 

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tek14
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11/8/2023 1:16pm
sowers711 wrote:

ECC08FA3-BD76-453C-A426-D7C9378A84C0CFFB0F8A-DF4D-45BD-994C-D3350D1CAFBF23A5AB5E-C2F8-47F4-8242-4FDD3B007DCD

Found any info about E-MX bike?

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sowers711
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11/8/2023 1:52pm
sowers711 wrote:

ECC08FA3-BD76-453C-A426-D7C9378A84C0CFFB0F8A-DF4D-45BD-994C-D3350D1CAFBF23A5AB5E-C2F8-47F4-8242-4FDD3B007DCD

tek14 wrote:

Found any info about E-MX bike?

Nothing much on any of these yet that I can find.

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Mm471
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11/8/2023 1:56pm

Access to your customers at like age 3, brand loyalty from that age is huge by the time they get to street bikes 

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Nairb#70
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11/8/2023 3:05pm

In addition to all of the above, Europe is full of many small, niche type manufacturers you've never even heard of, creating a whole different market.

Pop Shmoke
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11/8/2023 6:18pm
I think its probably a mix of things. When the Japanese bikes first came out , they were looked at like the chinese bikes are now...

I think its probably a mix of things. When the Japanese bikes first came out , they were looked at like the chinese bikes are now. But the manufacturing methods are better all around these days and I think that China can build some competitive bikes. They have become great at making stuff , but a lot are copies of other brands. So now brands with established names, can get into the off road market for the cost of R&D and have china build most of the parts for their bikes. 

The amount of data collected by everybody, must also be showing that people are more open to buying new products from established brands. And like another post said, Dirt bikes are  cheaper than a lot of other forms of recreation even as expensive as they are. 

Also a great way to test out electric motors and components, and spread out the cost of manufacturing. They might be building the gas bikes to establish a foothold while they work on the electric bikes. As well as be able to be a part of the rule making that shapes the electric classes of the future. Getting a window into the future by being a part of that Rule making process. Especially if  motors and other parts will be shared across multiple platforms. They might have even been prototyping  an electric alongside the gas bike. 

They can use the same motors and controls on a wide range of off road and street motorcycles. Right now You have to develop an engine and 1000's of parts for that engine for each class of MX bike , and also each street motorcycle has a much more specific engine. With electric You could use a single  motor across multiple different platforms and make adjustments at the controler. Adding or removing battery capacity to get to the "class" of power output. 

 

  As well as giving them a way to get some younger riders , some great cross promotion. It is one of the great things about electric that I have been saying for years now.  All of a sudden You go from having to develop an engine and chassis to bring out a new model or go into a new segment, to developing a chassis and using a motor from one of the other bikes You make. And there is a lot less R&D to do. So Your cost to do it comes down.  And it also makes the other bikes You build cost less by building more of the same exact parts before needing a new mold or new tooling.  

Speaking of chinese bikes I wonder how long it is until we see a serious chinese manufacturer try to put together a race bike/team again and take another stab at it. They definitely werent ready for primetime when Ping rode one, but they definitely could put out a competitive bike today if they wanted to. Hell a ton of the parts are already made over there anyways. Every once in a while I come across video reviews on youtube for some of the chinese bikes and supposedly some of them are pretty good now. 
 

If they were serious about creating their own bike and not illegally copying other brands intellectual property I dont necessarily think it would be the worst thing ever. If they could offer a cheaper bike more tailored towards new riders or ppl without a lot of money that could be okay. The sport is getting crazy expensive for just casual riders. I definitely would not be okay with them trying to flood the market though with super cheap bikes with stolen ip to undercut the other brands trying to force them out of the market like theyve done in many other areas. If they had to play fair I think it could be pretty cool. 

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