St.Louis Pass Counts

Bosco
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Edited Date/Time 1/14/2020 1:58am
I was interested in this enough to spend the last couple of hours dicking about on a spready. Some of you might like it too.





Points of note:
- There were roughly the same amount of passes made tonight as there were last week (73 tonight, 78 last week). This is a dodgy number though, as it includes passes resulting from DNFs and crashes. Last week Martin, Clout and Oldenburg lost 36 places in tip-overs. This week the only major loss was Craig who lost 18 places from his fall and subsequent DNF.
- Ferrandis clawed back 9 places despite starting a lap down - an impressive performance. He made 2 passes on his final lap.
- Drake made good steady progess all race long, totalling 7 passes.
- Forkner and Lawrence were the only riders to not make any passes. This is due to their good starts (1st and 2nd), not due to poor pace.
- Cooper made a healthy 5 passes on the way to 2nd place.





Points of note:
There were less than half the total passes made in this weeks main event compared with last weeks (35 vs 77). There were no DNFs last week, and Reed was already at the back of the pack when he pulled off this week, so the numbers are not skewed there.
- Tomac was the big forward mover this race, with 6 passes.
- Aside from Reedy's poor race before pulling off, Wilson was the next biggest loser. He got a much better start than last week, but faded back to 13th, sitting on the receiving end of 5 passes in the process. This is in contrast to his performance last week where he made 8 passes on his way to 13th.
- Besides Tomac and arguably Cunningham, there were no big movers this week.

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Bosco
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1/12/2020 6:41pm
Looks like no one is as interested as I was, but in my tired state last night I didn't catch that my spready was wrong - it didn't count the last lap of the 450 main. Thanks to Cianciarulo's last lap mistake Tomac actually made 8 passes,
and Cianciarulo lost 5 (tied for 2nd most passes against.) I tried to quietly edit my post in shame but it seems you can't re-upload pictures in an edit... Blush


8
-MAVERICK-
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1/12/2020 6:47pm Edited Date/Time 1/12/2020 6:48pm
^^^ upload pics in the text box for a new post, click preview, copy the code, edit original post, remove old picture code, paste new one, click save, done.
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big.dos
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1/12/2020 7:04pm
Interesting stuff! This could be used as a tool to help dictate which start layout / track layout best leads itself to good racing.
2
Tarz483
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1/12/2020 7:12pm
That's pretty cool that could Really even be a way to have a seperate championship, keep track of who made the most passes per year and that person wins The insert sponsors here Championship for the most passes made all season.
Or some variation of that.
4

The Shop

ledger
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1/12/2020 7:37pm
I find it interesting...thanks. It's gotta be difficult to make passes on last night's track and A1.
1
bigk218
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1/12/2020 9:42pm
One of the more interesting threads I’ve seen lately. Definitely interested

They have these kinds of stats in every other sport. Definitely a nice addition to put things in a different perspective.

Well done
2
1/12/2020 10:11pm
Nice work,interesting info.
1
Bosco
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1/13/2020 1:23am
Thanks for the kind words guys. It looks like I'll have to keep going so! It would definitely be interesting to see if you can actually quantify the effect of different track characteristics on the amount of passing. Seems like a bit of a reach for sure given the amount of variables at play, but a little report at the end of the season would be good fun, eh? Maybe it'll get picked up for next year's "science of supercross" Laughing
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tingo
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1/13/2020 6:34am
Good info Bosco, and thanks for sharing. If you didn't see it after A1, GuyB is putting out a similar positions gained/lost summary each week. It doesn't have quite as much info as what you have here, but it is similar enough that it might save you the "couple of hours dicking about on a spready" each week.

Here is A1: https://www.vitalmx.com/features/Movers-amp-Shakers-from-Anaheim-1,6803
Bosco
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1/13/2020 10:31am Edited Date/Time 1/13/2020 10:41am
tingo wrote:
Good info Bosco, and thanks for sharing. If you didn't see it after A1, GuyB is putting out a similar positions gained/lost summary each week. It...
Good info Bosco, and thanks for sharing. If you didn't see it after A1, GuyB is putting out a similar positions gained/lost summary each week. It doesn't have quite as much info as what you have here, but it is similar enough that it might save you the "couple of hours dicking about on a spready" each week.

Here is A1: https://www.vitalmx.com/features/Movers-amp-Shakers-from-Anaheim-1,6803
It was actually GD2's Vital Stats article that prompted me to look into passes (which uses the same info). If you only look at first lap vs last lap positions, you lose out on some information. For example at Anaheim 1 Alex Martin's fall from 5th to 21st and charge back to 10th looks like a loss of 5 spots on GuyB and GD2's analysis, whereas really he lost 16 spots during the race and gained back 11. A -16/+11 night is a different night to a -5 night!

My Anaheim thread is here.
1
Rupert X
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1/13/2020 10:56am
Bosco, excellent work !
300exc
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1/13/2020 11:05am
I find this info fantastic!
Thank you
DPR250R
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1/13/2020 11:33am
Bosco awesome work!

I am sorry to say that this only proves the theory that Tomac is too rich and has no drive anymore.
yz133rider
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1/13/2020 11:41am
DPR250R wrote:
Bosco awesome work!

I am sorry to say that this only proves the theory that Tomac is too rich and has no drive anymore.
...by making the most passes in the class? Some of these oddball theorys are really out there.
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Frodad78
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1/13/2020 11:56am
DPR250R wrote:
Bosco awesome work!

I am sorry to say that this only proves the theory that Tomac is too rich and has no drive anymore.
Pretty sure he still drives his own truck bro, He's not chauffeur rich yet...
1
GD2
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Fantasy
1/13/2020 12:03pm
I’m impressed that you not only made the suggestion to do this but that you went and did it yourself. Very cool data that reveals a lot more than what I have decided to include in my stats article.

I think I might try to do it for next week’s race by hand and see how long it takes me. I’d definitely like to include this kind of data in the article, but it’ll depend on the time required and if it’s justifiable.

Nice job!
Bosco
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1/14/2020 1:58am
Haha, it felt a bit rude to suggest something without knowing exactly how viable it is.

The way I do it is not very elegant, and I'm sure someone with a little more excel skill might be able to speed it up. However now that I have a spreadsheet template most of the time is spent manipulating the published lap chart into something useable. I touched on it a bit in my previous post, but the ama's published layout is lazy in that they don't deal with lappers very well (at least for what I want out of the chart), and once people start going two laps down or more it becomes a lot more difficult to keep track.

Also whatever software they use to publish their charts is really weird - it puts line breaks in the weirdest places, and moves stuff around in weird ways. I tried using a couple of OCR softwares to get around that, but I couldn't get anything useful there either. Even having done it 4 times, I'm not sure if it wouldn't be quicker to just type it out from scratch instead of trying to copy pieces over (although 22 riders for 24 laps is still over 500 individual fields).

I'm still thinking about possible ways to automate the manipulation of the data, but coming up dry on that for now.

Having done it 4 times now, I'm at about 1-1.5 hours per race. You're welcome to use the data I've got already, but I guess you'd want to check through it a bit first.
2

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