Jett Lawrence vs Haiden Deegan after the crash analyse, 6 lap race
Lap xx = Jett Lawrence / Haiden Deegan = Difference
Lap 11 = 2.18.318 / 2.18.527 = +0.209
Lap 12 = 2.17.781 / 2.17.792 = +0.011
Lap 13 = 2.17.049 / 2.18.473 = +1.424
Lap 14 = 2.16.788 / 2.17.765 = +0.977
Lap 15 = 2.16.865 / 2.21.074 = +4.209
Lap 16 = 2.15.795 / 2.24.718 = +8.923
My analyse
At first, Deegan passes in attack mode to take on Jett and try to pass him, matching Jett's pace, both running 2.17 laps. Deegan burns a lot of energy to keep the pace and gets slower little by little while Jett finds another gear to find another second a lap, running 2.16 twice and then another second at the end running a 2.15.
Let's say Jett and Haiden can keep up their maximum speed for 6 laps, a 2.17.765 for Haiden and a 2.15.795 for Jett, and Haiden does not just settle in for the last 2 laps :
2.17.765 - 2.15.795 = 1.970
1.970 × 6 = 11.820 seconds.
That is the gap that Haiden would need to overcome speedwise AND physically to beat Jett. Haiden is quite the rider, but there is still a gap I would say, and a large one.
Also, Jett was already in the 2.15 before Haiden crashed. Basically, the 3 laps were Haiden was following Jett, were mathematically for Jett 2 seconds off from his previous and next laps and maximun race pace.
I'd push back a bit, and say the last 2 laps Haiden realized Jett was on another level, and backed it off.
I'm not a Deegan fan, but have to give him respect, he's an animal out there, and the closest one to the Law Firm.
Jett uncorked a lap 2 seconds faster than Haiden on lap 16, just a few laps after falling, regrouping and taking off again.
He DROPPED Haiden. Period.
At this level the bell curve is so flat that it’s almost lateral. Meaning, making up 2 seconds a lap at the top tier of our sport is the equivalent of 10x more work than making up 2 seconds a lap as a 30th place rider. It’s not just 2 seconds a lap…it’s tenths of a second in 20 places on the track.
This is the same reason 2nd or 3rd-9th place are on the same second of the clock in qualifiers then it drops off steeply around 15th.
I agree, he dropped him, and he's not at their level.
My statement, was that I wouldn't count Haidens last 2 laps for comparison, as he likely mailed it in, after realizing he can't match Jett's pace.
Portrayed personality aside, Deegan is having an impressive start on 450s. He is unfortunately being compared to two guys who are just that much more impressive.
Haiden set high expectations with his cockiness but if we are fair, his performance is impressive.
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Agreed. I absolutely cannot stand Deegan. But he is a bad dude on a bike and very impressive with what he is doing so early in his 450 career in terms of pace and consistency.
The Lawrence brothers have 2 seconds a lap on most everyone else in the world at the moment.
I don't know about that. I don't think they'd just go 2 seconds a lap faster than Herlings and Coenan
Well good Lord willing we get to find out next year! How exciting is that. 🤙🏻
funny how that happens when Mr yes man Duffe always says haidens fastest laps are at the end of motos
No one on this earth is faster than Jett- that's the baseline. I think Deegan can run Jett's pace, but he is at 110% effort (unsustainable) and would not be able to ride "faster" to catch / pass him (unless Jett makes a mistake). Riding this faster pace- He will need to also improve his bike set up to run that speed more consistent, including getting comfortable himself at that speed.
Jett will already go down as the fastest rider ever (one of)- hard for anyone to come up against and beat that...
This is what’s fun about our sport, I don’t think Jett beats a prime JS7 or RC4. Not based on talent, just simply because those two were willing to die to win.
Why are we comparing Deegan to Jett? Jett’s faster, duh. Why go to nth degree to try and hammer that in? It’s just stupid. Because he trolled Jett early on and doesn’t apologize or roll over? Here we are trying to build some kind of Jett superhero scenario against a kid rookie. Ridiculous
What we should compare is when Jett goes quasar - only when Hunter has a comfortable lead in the points - Hunter at Pala, and then goes 1-1 at Hangtown. Hmm
Watch out - when Deegan learns to bulldog that 450 and rev it even harder, he’ll be untouchable. This is sarcasm for the dense BTW.
Deegan had worked his way through the pack in Moto 1 and had expended a lot of energy crashing and passing people in the first moto. (moreso than Jett and Hunter), who had hole-shotted and had a clear first half of the race. In moto 2, he was more gassed than them. By the end of moto 2, when opportunity arose, to pass Jett, he clearly did not have the energy. You can see it clearly in Buttery's video.
But he’s the most fit and has that dawg in him….now you’re saying he can’t hang at the end of motos and gives up when he gets behind? I can’t keep up with the reasoning as the season rolls on
Situational fatigue ≠ overall fitness or mentality. That distinction takes applying nuance and context, not weird obsession which is why you’re probably struggling to follow the reasoning.
Deegan is literally the only one challenging. Prado, at times.
And yeah, he’s getting better and has exceeded everyone’s expectations.
The Nats are always a little depleted.
I see some of us are noticing that Deegs is the only one goin' after them. Nice.
Also, he's not cryin' about his bike & he's not a quitter.
I'm jus' sayiin'...
Pit Row
I totally agree that 38 is improving, and he really is the only possible threat to the Law firm. However, as he improves, they are as well, notably Jett.....who still isn't anywhere near his true potential. Deegs also needs to settle his riding down a cog or two. He uses so much energy hammering around, revving his bike like a supermini, and it's not going to work. The Lawrence boys never hit the rev limiter by my ear, and just float around looking as if they are on a Sunday cruise, hopping around with what looks like little to no physical effort at all. Smooth as silk, quick bursts from turns, and steady, calm flow. Nothing brash and bombastic at all.......
Their approach can be duplicated, maybe without as much success, but can be copied. But first must be learned from starting from scratch, and that takes time. ALOT of it. Ever notice when Deegs has someone on his rear wheel, he frantically looks over his shoulder more than looking ahead? He looks like someone trying to get away after holding up the local liquor store with the police in tow. The brothers? They raced towards the battle ahead, never giving notice behind them, because that is where they plan on keeping the pack.......behind. Calm, cool, collected. Never a raised pulse. Very methodical.
That little punk is definitely not a quitter. His daddy wasnt either, as far as when he actually raced. Cant stand either of them. But , they are not quitters and for sure have talent.
Damn, that was rough admitting to that. 😀
“exceeded everyone’s expectations”
Nonsense. Many here expected him to have wins by now.
Being reasonable and mentioning Deegan will get you downvoted here, sir.
Jett going 2:15 at the end of the race when Deegs went 2:17 while sprinting madly to pass Jett, that seems pretty impressive. I think moto fans need to think more about he unit/scale fallacy, which is basically seeing a certain gap and assuming it's small. Like, in SX the announcers will be like "the top 10 in practice are within a second!" and it's a 45-second laptime. Just because a number feels small in time doesn't mean it's actually a small gap. There's no rule that a second or two is easy to make up. People make this mistake in running all the time, too. They'll see a hundred-meter sprinter and be like "oh that guy's only a half second off," which can be a huge gap (I don't actually know anything about sprinting so don't take that example literally).
Okay, stepping off the soapbox now.
im far from a deegan fan but,,,,to be fair to him,,
when the lawrences moved up,,there were no lawrences,,there was only the rest of the field
Jett is a phenom,and Hunter is catching up fast
if you take out the Lawrences,,Deegan is leading his rookie championship,,not too shabby
whether he can get to the pace of hunter and jett is yet to be seen,maybe,maybe not
but if he cannot beat jett or hunter straight up this season,he may never win,,,as lucas and sacha are coming,and sexton shimoda etc
personally i can only see two scenarios,,,
deegan gets to jetts level,,,or,,,he becomes another possible podium contender
Okay, “most” everyone’s. I didn’t think he would do this good.
Any reasonable person looking at the actual data can see that Haiden back way off on the last two laps. He went from consistently doing 2:17 and 2:18 laps to suddenly 2:21 and 2:24 on the last two laps which is where Jett gained a 13 second gap.
He knew he wasn’t going match Jett’s pace and rode the last two laps in. Unfortunately when the data is seen through rose-tinted glasses what you said (and what I said) will be interpreted much differently.
Got it. Everyone = you😉
I think he’s been mentioning bike setup the last few weeks. Kind of a I’m not making excuses but here’s the excuse. He’s also used the Lawrence’s have years on their bike excuse and he’s a rookie on the 450. If he wouldn’t have started the season with the drama I think more people wouldn’t have anything bad to say about his season so far.
Well, yeah. I think there was hope that Deegan would win, but most of us were realistic - inexperienced against the best - Jett and Hunter. I knew it would be a learning season. So, yeah, he did better than expected and he hasn’t given up. Yawn
I think the question is how does Jett work the rest of the rounds to let Hunter win, but not make it obvious. Any predictions?
I have never seen so many people mention “rookie” until Jett started clapping deegans *** every moto
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