Is the US Economy Headed into a Crash?

El_Rayo
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Edited Date/Time 5/18/2026 3:58pm

Interesting chart on the stats of the current delinquency rate in America currently. By almost every metric, we are at an all time high. What are your guys thoughts, and why/why not?

IMG 7843 1.jpeg?VersionId=I8xHiGxZ0uumEF1BI8txZWveIFAWj0q

Poll

Crash coming soon?

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borg
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5/18/2026 4:38pm

If I'm reading the chart right, it says that in q1, 13 percent of all credit card balances were 90 days delinquent. Don't know what it indicates but it's about the same as during  the financial crisis in 08' to 10'. Credit card delinquency was not what caused that crash. It was mostly mortgages which are looking ok according to this chart. 

Does your use of the term "crash" include recessions? If so then yes. We are headed for a recession. Not because of the data in this chart but because we have fairly regular recessions. 

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El_Rayo
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5/18/2026 4:56pm
borg wrote:
If I'm reading the chart right, it says that in q1, 13 percent of all credit card balances were 90 days delinquent. Don't know what it...

If I'm reading the chart right, it says that in q1, 13 percent of all credit card balances were 90 days delinquent. Don't know what it indicates but it's about the same as during  the financial crisis in 08' to 10'. Credit card delinquency was not what caused that crash. It was mostly mortgages which are looking ok according to this chart. 

Does your use of the term "crash" include recessions? If so then yes. We are headed for a recession. Not because of the data in this chart but because we have fairly regular recessions. 

By crash, I mean recession, but more severe in how it happens. I don’t think the chart points to that directly, but rather just another one of the red flags going up.

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bonseff
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5/18/2026 5:35pm

He always talks with this shit eating grin while lying to your face, it is infuriating.

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The Shop

APLMAN99
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5/18/2026 5:54pm
bonseff wrote:
Listen to this asshole spin CC debthttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/QAwyvfSTwOoHe totally reminds me of this dude from BCS  

Listen to this asshole spin CC debt

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QAwyvfSTwOo

He totally reminds me of this dude from BCS

image 3015

  

So he’s saying that consumers are having to put things that they used to be able to purchase with cash onto credit cards, it sounds like to me…..

1
5/18/2026 6:07pm

The US economy is heading for a recession, it might be next week, next month, next year, next decade or next century!

It could be worst than a recession if US government debt is not kept under control, $39 trillion and climbing...

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

image 3019

BRIC countries are reducing their holdings of US Treasury securities, China -15%, India -24% and Brazil -19% in the last year...

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

image 3018.png?VersionId=vG.s0

Japan and UK economies are not doing great, if they sell their Treasury bonds, bond rates will go up, which will not be good for the US economy.

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Freddy99
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5/19/2026 7:09am

Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers are cool with this, right guys?

image 3024

 

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early
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5/19/2026 12:12pm

Just got word a local company that makes custom transformers is closing up and a company that makes steel mill equipment (rolling mills, forges, coilers, etc) just had a round of layoffs. I talk to pneumatic, hydraulic, and sensor suppliers and they are appreciative of the business, not like 5 years ago when everyone was a busy as could be. The reindustrialization of America is not going well.

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avidchimp
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5/19/2026 3:24pm
early wrote:
Just got word a local company that makes custom transformers is closing up and a company that makes steel mill equipment (rolling mills, forges, coilers, etc)...

Just got word a local company that makes custom transformers is closing up and a company that makes steel mill equipment (rolling mills, forges, coilers, etc) just had a round of layoffs. I talk to pneumatic, hydraulic, and sensor suppliers and they are appreciative of the business, not like 5 years ago when everyone was a busy as could be. The reindustrialization of America is not going well.

The Chinese are going to save our manufacturing jobs, Trump said so!

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ToolMaker
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5/19/2026 4:19pm

I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next year to see who was closest with their thought on this.

TM

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5/19/2026 5:39pm
Freddy99 wrote:
Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers...

Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers are cool with this, right guys?

image 3024

 

You forgot to include this...

image 3021
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Freddy99
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5/19/2026 7:36pm
Freddy99 wrote:
Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers...

Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers are cool with this, right guys?

image 3024

 

You forgot to include this...

You forgot to include this...

image 3021

After the third attempt of getting it to attach i got distracted and moved on.   His cult doesn't seem to care anyways.   

Just imagine if Biden sued the irs for ten billion as a ploy to get them to settle for 1.7 billion and never be able to investigate him, given directly to him with 0 oversight.   Tax payer money.   The party of "fiscal responsibility".  

This just happened and there's not even a thread about it 🤣

 

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ToolMaker
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5/19/2026 8:04pm

Just read where Toyota is going to spend $2,000,000,000 on a plant in TX that will employ approx 2,000 people with an average salary of $88k

TM

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peelout
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5/19/2026 8:23pm
Freddy99 wrote:
Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers...

Meanwhile, King Trump created a 1.77 billion dollar slush fund for him to divy out as he sees fit.  I'm sure all the usual TDS sufferers are cool with this, right guys?

image 3024

 

You forgot to include this...

You forgot to include this...

image 3021
Freddy99 wrote:
After the third attempt of getting it to attach i got distracted and moved on.   His cult doesn't seem to care anyways.   Just imagine if...

After the third attempt of getting it to attach i got distracted and moved on.   His cult doesn't seem to care anyways.   

Just imagine if Biden sued the irs for ten billion as a ploy to get them to settle for 1.7 billion and never be able to investigate him, given directly to him with 0 oversight.   Tax payer money.   The party of "fiscal responsibility".  

This just happened and there's not even a thread about it 🤣

 

you mean Joe "autopen" Biden?

two wrongs don't make a right, all sides suck here 

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early
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5/19/2026 8:52pm
ToolMaker wrote:
I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next...

I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next year to see who was closest with their thought on this.

TM

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

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ToolMaker
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5/19/2026 9:00pm
ToolMaker wrote:
I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next...

I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next year to see who was closest with their thought on this.

TM

early wrote:

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 
5
early
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5/20/2026 5:45am Edited Date/Time 5/20/2026 5:48am
ToolMaker wrote:
I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next...

I believe things will get better a bit later in he year and then next year really take off.  I hope someone revive this thread next year to see who was closest with their thought on this.

TM

early wrote:

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

ToolMaker wrote:
From 5/15Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas FactoryToyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in...

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

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LoudLove
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5/20/2026 6:30am
early wrote:

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

ToolMaker wrote:
From 5/15Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas FactoryToyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in...

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 
early wrote:
Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government...

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

But as a loyal Toyota customer, I approve…

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ToolMaker
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5/20/2026 6:33am
early wrote:

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

ToolMaker wrote:
From 5/15Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas FactoryToyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in...

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 
early wrote:
Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government...

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

This was just an example of the coming things. And now that you mention it, likely tariffs motivated a large amount of investment that will make things light up.

5
early
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5/20/2026 7:07am Edited Date/Time 5/20/2026 8:24am
ToolMaker wrote:
From 5/15Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas FactoryToyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in...

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 
early wrote:
Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government...

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

ToolMaker wrote:
This was just an example of the coming things. And now that you mention it, likely tariffs motivated a large amount of investment that will make...

This was just an example of the coming things. And now that you mention it, likely tariffs motivated a large amount of investment that will make things light up.

Biden did it better

10000441941000044191
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borg
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5/20/2026 7:25am

It would be one thing to have faith in a tariff regime that was a well thought out plan intended to repatriate certain manufacturing processes while continuing to cultivate necessary foreign resources. But but what we have is nothing like that.  Expecting that the scattershot Trump tariff regime, which is just over  a year old, having been either delayed or modified over 50 times in that year, ruled illegal by the Supreme Court and now hanging by a thread that gets snipped in July, is the motivation for multi national corporations to make multi decade changes in our favor,  is eternal vigilance taken to an incredibly illogical extreme. 

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LoudLove
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5/20/2026 7:25am
early wrote:
Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government...

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

ToolMaker wrote:
This was just an example of the coming things. And now that you mention it, likely tariffs motivated a large amount of investment that will make...

This was just an example of the coming things. And now that you mention it, likely tariffs motivated a large amount of investment that will make things light up.

early wrote:
Biden did it better

Biden did it better

10000441941000044191

Biden did have the advantage of historically low interest rates. Just a clarification, not an endorsement either way. 

3
ToolMaker
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5/20/2026 9:42am
borg wrote:
It would be one thing to have faith in a tariff regime that was a well thought out plan intended to repatriate certain manufacturing processes while...

It would be one thing to have faith in a tariff regime that was a well thought out plan intended to repatriate certain manufacturing processes while continuing to cultivate necessary foreign resources. But but what we have is nothing like that.  Expecting that the scattershot Trump tariff regime, which is just over  a year old, having been either delayed or modified over 50 times in that year, ruled illegal by the Supreme Court and now hanging by a thread that gets snipped in July, is the motivation for multi national corporations to make multi decade changes in our favor,  is eternal vigilance taken to an incredibly illogical extreme. 

I can see your point of view on this. I also can see, since the time I was part of the work force jobs have been going overseas because it was cheaper to produce it elsewhere and ship it here. I remember running a packaging line back in the early 80s that we imported the glass from France. I asked the owner of the product, how is it possible to buy glass from France and ship it here cheaper than just buying it here? And in fact it was. Point being, we had to do something different. Is what he's doing the right thing? Only history with hindsight can tell us. It sure looks like chaos from someone (me) who doesn't know the full picture. But I'll take the chaos over doing the same thing previous administrations did.

TM

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mvd61
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5/20/2026 8:06pm
early wrote:

That's what I heard a year ago when the tariffs were taking effect.

ToolMaker wrote:
From 5/15Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas FactoryToyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in...

From 5/15

Toyota Plans $2B Assembly Line Expansion at Texas Factory

Toyota is Seeking Approval for a New Assembly Line at its San Antonio Facility in Texas Aimed at Boosting U.S. Production Capacity and Supporting Jobs and Investment Across North America
News DeskNews DeskMay 15, 2026
 
early wrote:
Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government...

Charge Americans $200 billion in tariff taxes to get a $2 billion expansion at 1 factory run by a foreign company, yep sounds like a government program

I think I am suffering from chronic winning fatigue. 

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Brad460
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5/20/2026 8:06pm Edited Date/Time 5/20/2026 8:07pm

We’re doing this again? No recession on the horizon..same as the last time we had a thread on the economy..the usual Vital folks predicting a recession month after month after…sorry, still not happening..

In Feb folks in here were claiming worst job market since the great depression (ignoring the CA strike)…March added 185k and April another 115k…

Biggest problem in our country is finding folks who want to work and bring value to a business..

 

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Chance1216
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5/20/2026 10:14pm Edited Date/Time 5/20/2026 10:18pm
Brad460 wrote:
We’re doing this again? No recession on the horizon..same as the last time we had a thread on the economy..the usual Vital folks predicting a recession...

We’re doing this again? No recession on the horizon..same as the last time we had a thread on the economy..the usual Vital folks predicting a recession month after month after…sorry, still not happening..

In Feb folks in here were claiming worst job market since the great depression (ignoring the CA strike)…March added 185k and April another 115k…

Biggest problem in our country is finding folks who want to work and bring value to a business..

 

Commercial contracts in Washington have come to a grinding halt throughout the trades. Though I can only speak of the contracts my company has, it’s expected to pick up late July. 

I had an 8 week lull March through April. Last three weeks have been steady wrapping up trim on project. Now, we’ve got a skeleton crew of only two guys including myself intermittently working. (I’m not complaining. I just wish this happened during the summer). Speaking to the remaining guys within the other trades (electricians, fitters, HVAC), they all appear to be in the same shape. Skeleton crews. 

I wouldn’t call it a recession. Maybe a blip on the radar?

T-MAC
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5/20/2026 11:18pm

We are in interesting economic times with a lot of volatility and major variables that could have big impacts, Iran war and AI development/deployment being a couple of them.

“We’re not in a recession, but the margin for error is shrinking. The labor market is more exposed to shocks than it was a year ago"

The job market has shown to be pretty resilient all things considered, though still volatile.

Wages have been stagnant for a while here, and the gap between wage growth and inflation/cost of living is not good, and growing quickly. 

It was a lot more affordable to buy a home during the Great Depression than it is today, when comparing relative home costs vs wages.

I see a lot of people working more hours just to make ends meet, or picking up additional stuff on the side. Investment in medical technologies and R&D has certainly slowed, but it hasn't evaporated.

It seems very plausible that a lot of white collar jobs and logistics will be displaced by AI and automation in the next few years, and any manufacturing that does come online here will leverage automation heavily as well.

So you may have a job. You may need to get another one too just to stay afloat, let alone try and get ahead.

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