2026 gear and tariffs

https://www.indeed.com/q-truck-driver-l-wisconsin-jobs.html

The 2025 recession predictions were predicated on the implementation of liberation day tariffs.  But most of those did not happen.  

Respectfully, I think you might be conflating some frustration in various directions. There seems to be some confusion on price elasticity, tariffs, and price gouging. In regards to that price, 729 vs 839; that's roughly a 15% increase. If you take Bell helmets, an American company, If we stick with motorsports, I believe they are largely made in Bahrain which has a newly agreed 10% baseline import tariff for the US market. You have inflation which stacks as Luxon pointed out in addition to the tariff rate for this market + unknown other variable(s) + margins needed to continue operations.

If they were to significantly increase prices while having control or influence of the supply serving that market, it would be gouging. If there was no tariffs and they had a 15% increase, maybe they are testing the elasticity of their pricing and how that impacts profit vs cost/volume sold. If you are a manufacturer with a high reputation that serves a global market, are you going to absorb a new unplanned cost to your product or will you pass that to the consumer and test the elasticity of the price for that product in that market? Maybe, if you have a drop in volume due to the volatility of doing business in that market, you are better off not serving that market? Is the market volume drop big enough to justify planning, acquiring and building a new production in that market and will that market accept a potential increase of price with that? Manufacturing jobs are around 10% or less of the total workforce in the US; how are you going to afford to pull people from other jobs to produce a product in the US with materials that may or may not be available in the US market with precision machining/tooling that may or may not be available in the US market, all of this in addition to localized taxes, regulations and a government that has shown to be pretty fickle to manufacturers. In the time it takes to try to get things in motion and boots on the ground, maybe there is a new party that a different view?

One by one here:

Sure- if you go back to the original post he said the price of the helmet increased from $729 —> $839 because of tariffs..that’s more than 2.7%…which is approx what my company is seeing across the board in increased costs this year..

The price increase is likely related to BOTH the 2.7% increase and the (who knows what they are now %) tariff. It's also likely to be related to the cost of various other business aspects going up related to the tariffs and inflation - machinery, fuel, shipping, sponsorship costs, literally everything. You can't just look at the tariff rate, apply it to the price and conclude price gauging. It's FAR more complicated than that.  

And as much as the anti-Trumpers wanted prices to jump and the economy crash due to tariffs…fact is, that’s not reality. And they’ve conceded as much. You certainly don’t hear anything about the stock market now..

I don't think many people want the economy to crash, regardless of their political stance. The reality is, though, that prices are increasing due to tariffs. Not as much as some have fearmongered they would (yet, at least), but absolutely they're going up, and we're paying for it. The president increased taxes on all Americans via the tariffs. That's how they work. 

Also, my company has an initiative to move out of China and source more from the US…moving more production (high paying jobs) back to the US. Many US companies are also demanding more products they purchase be made in the US..all good things..especially for US made products. 

Good! Hopefully more companies follow suit. Are they going to increase pricing due to the much higher costs or eat those and make less money? That's not a smart ass question, it's just a real one they'll have to answer. 

On a similar topic, I’d like to hear your opinion on China, particularly their continued ignoring/stealing of patents, stealing IP…etc.  Have you experienced this with your product and how would you feel if they copied your designs and sold at a fraction of the cost? 

That's really a different topic. Any country, and really, anyone in the USA can do it just like China. China certainly has a bad rep for it and they absolutely do it. But, there are multiple triple clamp companies who now use the same features we use in their clamps. And make claims the same as ours (despite the product not really living up to those), etc. I have had multiple machine shops in China steal our images and videos and claim them as their own. That sucks, but there's not much we can do about it. What we do, though, is spread the word that our products are made in-house, in the USA, and the quality reflects that. Someone may knock us off here and there, but they won't be able to match the quality or performance. It's all about keeping our reputation associated with being the best parts available.

To answer your question regarding cost increase sourcing in the US- We are expecting some price increase, however the “parts” we get from countries (such as China), while cheaper the quality is awful. Meaning, the money saved on sourcing is paid out on cost of quality. In addition, we have customers offering to pay more for our product if it’s built in the USA. 

We work closely with a manufacturer who sources and builds everything in the USA. And not just the US, but all within 1-2 hours of their manufacturing facility in Ohio. For example, it makes it easier to address quality issue when you can drive to the supplier that day, versus flying to China!  They are number one in quality and market share in their market. Meaning, it’s not only possible to source 100% in the US but also compete and beat your competitors in pricing and quality. 

I hv exp back to the 70,s farming , 80,s hauled construction equipt, etc   . Trained by a Lieutenant Cornel of the state police in charge of the worlds strongest hhg rig trk line. At the biggest pipeline co in the world . Worked in a few divisions when hhg permits where not cleared. I worked for ovr 50 trucking company.s alone. A lot of bankruptcy in the industry.  Amazon would be a o/o contract position Amazon ic 3rd party drivers sit 2-3 days no loads. 3-4k a week truck payment , fuel 100 gal a day , insurance , etc.  1,400- 2,9000 haha.  You hv to gross 18k a week to make 1,800.  I don’t see it happening at 1.00 to 1.50 cpm. Flash is a 60k job at best . Country side about the same .i know a few drivers that worked there crap cpm & 20 bucks a car. Why do you think the job is posted everyday .  I talked with a car hauler this week he can’t find a car to haul , it took 5 days .  The advertised recruiting pay is close to double what you actually make.  Only was to make money is to 1099 with a Elog cheat team & run 23-43 hr days.  In the ne that’s 440 mi x .60 .65 now.  Northern Me. To DC airport 47 hrs straight 2 thx giving ago . Then more stops in 2 states. A mega carrier in gb has been firing office people with degrees & fighting them on unemployment. 

The bottom line is tariffs are a US tax on imported goods paid by the importer (the buyer). The exporter (the seller) sells the goods to the importer and the importer pays the exporter for the goods and also pays the tariff tax to the US government. The exporter never pays anyone, the exporter only exchanges goods for a payment. Only the importer is the one paying, both the exporter for said goods and the US government's tariff tax. Tariffs are essentially a national sales tax for purchasing goods from certain countries.

Whether tariffs are good policy or not is contextual but make no mistake tariffs are just a sales tax paid by US importers.

That's great it worked out for your company on all fronts! Hopefully more companies are forced to take a look at their operations and are able to do something similar. But, this certainly won't be true for all companies in all industries. Some will have a very different situation. The helmet that started this thread is one such example. 

Another example: anything injection molded is going up. Even if the parts are made in the USA and the materials are made in the USA, the tooling to make the parts almost certainly is not. And injection mold tooling is EXPENSIVE. Typical injection mold tooling for small parts is on the order of $25k per tool. And $100k is not at all out of the question on larger or more complex parts. Most all the good tool makers are located in China, Singapore, or similar. You CAN get USA made tooling, but it's typically 3-4x the cost of tools made overseas. So, even with a 100% tariff, it's still much cheaper to go with a Chinese tool, and the quality will be just as good as a US made tool, if not better. 

Regardless, even if your company is making everything in the USA, prices are still going up due to tariffs. See the example with my company (my first post in this thread). We're also currently looking at a new product with injection molded parts, so I'm in the situation I just explained above. There's just no way around it. 

'Also, my company has an initiative to move out of China and source more from the US…moving more production (high paying jobs) back to the US. Many US companies are also demanding more products they purchase be made in the US..all good things..especially for US made products.' 

How is any of this going to work outside of a heavily protectionist economy in which the said companies get propped up by government subsidies and handouts? 

The only way for US companies to cover the massively increased costs of producing in the US - aside from subsidies - is by pushing up their prices. And if they do this they won't compete and will soon go out of business. 

Maybe if your product or company can only exist being made by slave labor, everyone involved should look in the mirror.

100%.
Realistically, for smaller companies (up to 9 figures) it's almost impossible to move production to the US.
My company produces almost 20M worth of product a year. And we're not even close to big enough to even think about moving production to the US.
Larger corporations may be a different story (but even for them it's hard and depending on the product might be impossible). But then again I'm not sure if it's a great idea to cause a market consolidation at the cost of innovation.

Our company had a facility in China that we closed before the election. Unfortunately it was moved to Mexico and not the US…but it’s been close to 2 years and the transition is still not complete and products in production have large back orders. Validations and audits make everything more difficult and time consuming than it should be…there is no way companies are going to go to production in the US before this administration is at a minimum half over if they didn’t already have plans in progress and manufacturing space already available.

Take a look at the device you made this comment from and let all of us know where it was manufactured.

We’re all waiting……

 

So who wanted this as his election motto to make sure he was voted in……..

So who really understood what he was getting at with this campaign addenda……looks to me like Donkey Kong saw this coming a mile away

All those robots are slave labor...

How this effects companies is going to depend largely on what their volume, target market, and price point is.  For a US based company that focuses on lower volume, high end products they likely either already make their products here or can onshore relatively easily.  They’re targeting a higher price point and more affluent consumer that is likely less price sensitive.  If another company is targeting the lower end of the price point range and making it up in volume they will likely be in a lot more trouble.  

Another option a lot of people are sleeping on is Taiwan.  There are some fantastic suppliers over there that do very high quality work, might be something to look into if anyone’s company is in a tight spot.

It’s a big Fat IF but if we get a stimulus it will make up for the difference and then some 🤣🤷🏼‍♂️

Apple spent a ton of money training people over in China. There is a documentary about it. Basically  Apple was jumping around using different factories and when they would stop using a factory that factory went bankrupt. The Chinese Government didn't like that and pressured  apple. Apple started to tell the factories they had to find other contracts to match what they got from apple so that if apple stopped using them they would not fail. As a result apple shared tech to a degree but did not allow the products to be sold to the US market. 

Manufacturing of electronics in China has become so advanced in a large part because of Apple and the training they did.  That has spilled over into other segments that make other electronics and there are now many many highly skilled workers over in China that have been trained by Apple. I do not remember the exact number, but it was a lot of money to have spent overseas. Billions I think. 

 Now there are things made in China that are sometimes cheaper than if they were made in the US, but they are much better made and performing.  Yah there's also a bunch of cheap stuff. But think about it. right now the best action cameras are made in china by chinese companies. The best drones are also all china. China has some cell phones only available in china because of the Apple agreements that are also really good.

Apple started this training back in the late 90's or so I believe and were one of the longest to hold out on going with China to make stuff.  I'm all for making more stuff in the US. I just do not think the Tariffs are going to be the way to make it happen. Especially when You have the chance of another political party getting back into power and allowing things to go back to business as usual  with China and other places. It would take a much longer time to bring NEW manufacturing back to the US and have it be on par quality wise for many things. If I was trying to do it, I would think 10 years would be doable.   

 We live in a global economy now. Why not take advantage of the weaker value of the Chinese currency and the cheaper labor that results for things that they do well.  And other countries for other stuff they do well. 

 I make motocross graphics with US made materials . But the printers and ink are not possible  to get made in the US.  Perhaps the US could start by building the robots and machinery to make stuff in factories first. Otherwise much of the money invested in new manufacturing will go outside the US anyway.

  I keep seeing CNC shops closing up and the machines for sale on auction sites. I'm sure the rise in material costs and the quality available from China has impacted some of the smaller shops.   

I certainly appreciate that well thought out, informative detail. I truly learned something there. 

I think the point still holds true that the majority of goods that we consume here in this country were produced via, what some would call, slave labor. My concern is that so many people virtue signal about companies that do this to make a profit while consuming goods from said companies. 

There are so many threads and articles throughout the net regarding the death of American manufacturing, yet so many people have very simple solutions to the problem. Very few people have even the slightest understanding of global supply chains. Better yet, I’d bet that most couldn’t even explain why the US was a manufacturing powerhouse post WW2. 

People can talk about greed all they want. But the entire American retirement system is built off of publicly traded companies being profitable. Everyone complains about offshoring manufacturing to keep cost lower and increase profits, but I’d bet they would complain more if the portfolios that they have been building for 10, 20, 30+ years reduced significantly, with little chance of ever recovering, and impacting their retirement. 

This is obviously a whole separate topic from tariffs. So I’ll stop there. 

 

This whole thing is crazy. I work in imports and in the Moto sector here in the U.K. and from experience, there are factors in tariffs that get really complex. It’s all driven from country of origin and even that can be very questionable.

Some key facts though, a production timeline will be anywhere from 3-6 months plus shipping. When tariffs go up no pricing will take effect until a production timeline is actually imported which is why there may not be a lot of price increases and inflation looks low.

Helmets are usually free to import but, with US rates and helmets being made in the far east, 10-15% is about right given that there is most likely an increase for raw material at the factory.

Factories take time and investment, a lot of which will not be possible for the Moto Industry as a whole. 3-5 years for a fully functional and operational manufacturing facility from scratch is not out of the question. It will make the US very expensive to buy and sell with, and also raise the cost of everything you guys buy long term. You basically had a tax added to every product imported into the US, and wether that goes on the RRP or not, it’s still there and someone is paying it. Nobody outside of the US is paying this, and during COVID the biggest container shortage issue was created by the US due to the fact so much product was going in but nothing was coming out so a lot of containers just got stuck in US ports. To try and change that way of thinking in a heartbeat, while taxing yourselves more for doing it is just wild.