KTM to file for Bankruptcy/ Self Restructuring on Friday

Team403
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1/25/2025 8:29am
Team403 wrote:
Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the...

Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the cost of debt.  What am I missing?

indy rider wrote:

Nah, the industry is profitable except for KTM and Arctic Cat.

IMG 6027 1.jpeg?VersionId=fXZxi2uyqjmpVImdf
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Team403
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1/25/2025 8:30am Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 8:32am

I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and hence why PMG is struggling.

3
MxAddic
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1/25/2025 8:57am Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 8:58am
Team403 wrote:
Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the...

Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the cost of debt.  What am I missing?

You miss a lot of things around here and even get told so if you are not a vitard.

6
Beagle
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1/25/2025 9:02am Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 9:04am
Beagle wrote:
Sure bud, can't recall all the bad takes you've had on this, how about"Bajaj would be better off letting it fail and buy it on the...

Sure bud, can't recall all the bad takes you've had on this, how about

"Bajaj would be better off letting it fail and buy it on the cheap"

?

Seems bad enough to me.

You keep claiming that restructuring is a mere promise and that creditors (and even Bajaj!) would be better off with PMG bankruptcy. We get it, it was pretty clear the first dozen of times already.

I'm just pointing that this goes against all reports and that you don't have anything to back this up, it's just what you're "thinking". So in the end it does boil down to your unerring intuition against experts opinion.

Monday will be interesting.

MxAddic wrote:
If you think these folks are so genuine and smart that you are entangled in their ball hairs maybe you can answer a couple questions.If Baja...

If you think these folks are so genuine and smart that you are entangled in their ball hairs maybe you can answer a couple questions.

If Baja was not better off letting it die and buying the company out from under Pierer why have they not ponied up the entire amount to bail him out?

Why are all these smart people not even uttering a breath about the company being bought out from the creditors?

Monday will be an absolute nothing burger as the only way Pierer does not get everything he wants is if Baja votes their shares against him.

Dear Vital Oracle,

I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need to be sole investor, no need to buy them outright either, buying some more shares is a very convenient (and cheaper) way for them to help save the company and likely gain more control. Maybe no one is talking about buying the company maybe because it was never an option?

It feels like your own confidence in your predictions is failing. 

Stay strong.

5

The Shop

MxAddic
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1/25/2025 9:05am Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 9:06am
Beagle wrote:
Dear Vital Oracle,I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need...

Dear Vital Oracle,

I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need to be sole investor, no need to buy them outright either, buying some more shares is a very convenient (and cheaper) way for them to help save the company and likely gain more control. Maybe no one is talking about buying the company maybe because it was never an option?

It feels like your own confidence in your predictions is failing. 

Stay strong.

It's not an option and never will be as long as Stefan is in control. The moment he is not...

And I know you have told me I am wrong and said it dozens of times O-Parrot of Bullshit.

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Hammer 663s
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1/25/2025 9:07am
MxAddic wrote:
It's not an option and never will be as long as Stefan is in control. The moment he is not...And I know you have told me...

It's not an option and never will be as long as Stefan is in control. The moment he is not...

And I know you have told me I am wrong and said it dozens of times O-Parrot of Bullshit.

Dude, just go the fvck away. You are not needed here, nor wanted. You add nothing. Log out and stay out. 

16
2
MxAddic
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1/25/2025 9:13am Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 9:13am

Dude, just go the fvck away. You are not needed here, nor wanted. You add nothing. Log out and stay out. 

cash 5
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Broseph
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1/25/2025 9:20am
MxAddic wrote:
It's not an option and never will be as long as Stefan is in control. The moment he is not...And I know you have told me...

It's not an option and never will be as long as Stefan is in control. The moment he is not...

And I know you have told me I am wrong and said it dozens of times O-Parrot of Bullshit.

Dude, just go the fvck away. You are not needed here, nor wanted. You add nothing. Log out and stay out. 

@ML512 How’s that “ignore” feature coming along? Please tell us it’s in the works!

11
Snapper
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1/25/2025 9:24am

Wow, 51 pages.

Yeah, if it wasn't for old matey it would be around 20 pages. 

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MxAddic
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1/25/2025 9:35am
Broseph wrote:

@ML512 How’s that “ignore” feature coming along? Please tell us it’s in the works!

Pro Tip: The ignore feature is in your head. Learn how to use it.

1
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j368
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1/25/2025 11:29am
Broseph wrote:

@ML512 How’s that “ignore” feature coming along? Please tell us it’s in the works!

MxAddic wrote:

Pro Tip: The ignore feature is in your head. Learn how to use it.

IMG 2818 0
1/25/2025 12:14pm Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 12:22pm
Team403 wrote:
Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the...

Isn’t the entire power sports segment in the drain?  How does capital injections make the company profitable in todays market?  EBITDA was -200M that’s before the cost of debt.  What am I missing?

indy rider wrote:

Nah, the industry is profitable except for KTM and Arctic Cat.

Team403 wrote:
IMG 6027 1.jpeg?VersionId=fXZxi2uyqjmpVImdf

KTM isn't really an off-road powersports company any more. That is just their marketing at play. The majority of their sales are utilitarian street bikes dressed with offroad or roadrace packaging.

2
Team403
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1/25/2025 12:28pm
indy rider wrote:

Nah, the industry is profitable except for KTM and Arctic Cat.

Team403 wrote:
IMG 6027 1.jpeg?VersionId=fXZxi2uyqjmpVImdf
KTM isn't really an off-road powersports company any more. That is just their marketing at play. The majority of their sales are utilitarian street bikes dressed...

KTM isn't really an off-road powersports company any more. That is just their marketing at play. The majority of their sales are utilitarian street bikes dressed with offroad or roadrace packaging.

That’s interesting as they simply dominate the off road and mini-cycle market.  

1/25/2025 12:30pm Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 12:33pm
Team403 wrote:
IMG 6027 1.jpeg?VersionId=fXZxi2uyqjmpVImdf
KTM isn't really an off-road powersports company any more. That is just their marketing at play. The majority of their sales are utilitarian street bikes dressed...

KTM isn't really an off-road powersports company any more. That is just their marketing at play. The majority of their sales are utilitarian street bikes dressed with offroad or roadrace packaging.

Team403 wrote:

That’s interesting as they simply dominate the off road and mini-cycle market.  

Which are, of course, both quite small segments when you are a global brand knocking on the door of half a million sales a year. The entire off road market in North America for all makes and models, most of which are not competition-oriented, is roughly 100,000 bikes.

1
1/25/2025 12:32pm
Team403 wrote:
I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and...

I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and hence why PMG is struggling.

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to new rules and regulations all the time.   Not much of that with the off-road side of things.  I think that's one reason you now see Ducati and Triumph really going hard into off-road and motocross.

Team403
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1/25/2025 12:41pm
Team403 wrote:
I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and...

I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and hence why PMG is struggling.

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to...

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to new rules and regulations all the time.   Not much of that with the off-road side of things.  I think that's one reason you now see Ducati and Triumph really going hard into off-road and motocross.

Not to mention everyone knows someone that has been killed on a street bike - I know several unfortunately.  3rd world commuter cycles are a whole different story.  

1/25/2025 12:44pm Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 12:57pm
Team403 wrote:
I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and...

I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and hence why PMG is struggling.

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to...

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to new rules and regulations all the time.   Not much of that with the off-road side of things.  I think that's one reason you now see Ducati and Triumph really going hard into off-road and motocross.

Ducati, Triumph, and other brands viewed KTM's marketing model as a goal. KTM went from a niche brand to a top-10 global manufacturer and highly valuable transportation brand within span of a decade. Until the financial situation became apparent, they were darlings of the industry.

KTM's race/offroad branding was foundation to their insane growth. Of course, other brands were watching that and trying to copy it. But I guess the question remains: how much of that growth was unsustainable debt-driven smoke and mirrors, and, additionally, is that branding model replicable for other makes, especially after KTM has nosedived? 

4
Team403
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1/25/2025 12:58pm
Team403 wrote:
I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and...

I would venture to guess the OEMS are not profitable in the MX dirtbike segments ( the KTM segment).  Product diversity is driving their success and hence why PMG is struggling.

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to...

I sorta think off-road bikes are the future.  With all the emissions craziness, making street bikes is getting harder and harder, constantly having to comply to new rules and regulations all the time.   Not much of that with the off-road side of things.  I think that's one reason you now see Ducati and Triumph really going hard into off-road and motocross.

Ducati, Triumph, and other brands viewed KTM's marketing model as a goal. KTM went from a niche brand to a top-10 global manufacturer and highly valuable...

Ducati, Triumph, and other brands viewed KTM's marketing model as a goal. KTM went from a niche brand to a top-10 global manufacturer and highly valuable transportation brand within span of a decade. Until the financial situation became apparent, they were darlings of the industry.

KTM's race/offroad branding was foundation to their insane growth. Of course, other brands were watching that and trying to copy it. But I guess the question remains: how much of that growth was unsustainable debt-driven smoke and mirrors, and, additionally, is that branding model replicable for other makes, especially after KTM has nosedived? 

Resale is a real kick in the balls as dirtbikes have a shelf life if you race them ( unlike street bikes ). Buy KTMs for $10k and flipping for $5k is a tough one to swallow especially after you spend money to dial in the suspension etc..  Seems like the Japanese brands hold better value/ less depreciation at a notably lower entry point.

it would be interesting to see what the avg time of ownership before replacement is for the various OEMs.  I presume the higher the depreciation the longer the ownership ( I’m in this boat ).

1
MxAddic
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1/25/2025 1:10pm
Team403 wrote:
Resale is a real kick in the balls as dirtbikes have a shelf life if you race them ( unlike street bikes ). Buy KTMs for...

Resale is a real kick in the balls as dirtbikes have a shelf life if you race them ( unlike street bikes ). Buy KTMs for $10k and flipping for $5k is a tough one to swallow especially after you spend money to dial in the suspension etc..  Seems like the Japanese brands hold better value/ less depreciation at a notably lower entry point.

it would be interesting to see what the avg time of ownership before replacement is for the various OEMs.  I presume the higher the depreciation the longer the ownership ( I’m in this boat ).

Back in the day you wanted a new bike every 2-3 years just because they where so much better. Now it seems ride them until the wheels fall off is a good option.

1
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MxAddic
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1/25/2025 2:11pm Edited Date/Time 1/26/2025 2:29am
msp332 wrote:

Bloomberg reports that a group of lenders is proposing a different plan:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/motorbike-maker-ktm-s-lenders-resist-debt-proposal-with-new-plan
(skip the paywall with this website: https://archive.md/ku9PS)

Stay tuned for the February 25th vote.

Imagine that...

If the creditors want the company Pierer, Baja and the shareholders are all fucked.

How many of the experts seen that one coming?

"Na, Bro. You are taking .14 on the Euro."

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3
1/25/2025 2:28pm

There's a huge aftermarket based around the Austrian bikes, not only in motocross, but also adventure and street bikes. Companies that cater to mostly those bikes and nothing else. Wonder how they are handling the ripple affect of this mess?

1/25/2025 2:35pm
Beagle wrote:
Dear Vital Oracle,I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need...

Dear Vital Oracle,

I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need to be sole investor, no need to buy them outright either, buying some more shares is a very convenient (and cheaper) way for them to help save the company and likely gain more control. Maybe no one is talking about buying the company maybe because it was never an option?

It feels like your own confidence in your predictions is failing. 

Stay strong.

To be clear though, buying a few more shares IS buying the company outright. They have currently have a 49.9% stake in the company.

1
Beagle
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1/25/2025 2:44pm

Ducati have been pretty transparent about this, one of the main reasons for them to get into motocross is to rejuvenate their riders base.

The average age of motorcycle buyer keeps increasing, even more so for brands like Ducati. To ensure their future they need to get them when they're young. The whole idea is that some of them would become loyal to the brand and later transition to more expensive street bikes. The peewee effect.

That and exposure/marketing value of racing MXGP and SMX.

2
APLMAN99
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Fantasy
1/25/2025 2:52pm
Beagle wrote:
Ducati have been pretty transparent about this, one of the main reasons for them to get into motocross is to rejuvenate their riders base.The average age...

Ducati have been pretty transparent about this, one of the main reasons for them to get into motocross is to rejuvenate their riders base.

The average age of motorcycle buyer keeps increasing, even more so for brands like Ducati. To ensure their future they need to get them when they're young. The whole idea is that some of them would become loyal to the brand and later transition to more expensive street bikes. The peewee effect.

That and exposure/marketing value of racing MXGP and SMX.

Back when Alta was first introduced I remember saying that the best strategy they could have used would have been to make small ‘city bikes’ and sell/lease them to college campuses across the country. Minimal cost machines that could provide income to help contribute to your overhead and fixed costs, but also to help get younger people comfortable to using two wheelers to get places. I still think that it’d be a good strategy. 

3
Beagle
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1/25/2025 3:00pm Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 3:02pm
Beagle wrote:
Dear Vital Oracle,I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need...

Dear Vital Oracle,

I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need to be sole investor, no need to buy them outright either, buying some more shares is a very convenient (and cheaper) way for them to help save the company and likely gain more control. Maybe no one is talking about buying the company maybe because it was never an option?

It feels like your own confidence in your predictions is failing. 

Stay strong.

To be clear though, buying a few more shares IS buying the company outright. They have currently have a 49.9% stake in the company.

Sure, I meant that buying shares to tip the scale over 50 is all that's needed and is the cheaper way to take control. I wanted to mark the difference with "buying back the whole company from Pierer or the creditors" which is unnecessary, sorry for the confusion.

Bajaj currently have 49.9% of 74.9% of PMG, a smidge over 37%, and this is set to change on Monday.

1
1/25/2025 3:09pm
Beagle wrote:
Dear Vital Oracle,I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need...

Dear Vital Oracle,

I would say that Bajaj investing in the company for the restructuring plan to succeed is what makes more sense for them. No need to be sole investor, no need to buy them outright either, buying some more shares is a very convenient (and cheaper) way for them to help save the company and likely gain more control. Maybe no one is talking about buying the company maybe because it was never an option?

It feels like your own confidence in your predictions is failing. 

Stay strong.

To be clear though, buying a few more shares IS buying the company outright. They have currently have a 49.9% stake in the company.

Beagle wrote:
Sure, I meant that buying shares to tip the scale over 50 is all that's needed and is the cheaper way to take control. I wanted...

Sure, I meant that buying shares to tip the scale over 50 is all that's needed and is the cheaper way to take control. I wanted to mark the difference with "buying back the whole company from Pierer or the creditors" which is unnecessary, sorry for the confusion.

Bajaj currently have 49.9% of 74.9% of PMG, a smidge over 37%, and this is set to change on Monday.

It’s all the same. They’d be taking control, and if approved, taking on whatever negotiated debt.

The shares are just a legal formality.

Moto520
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1/25/2025 3:14pm
Team403 wrote:
Resale is a real kick in the balls as dirtbikes have a shelf life if you race them ( unlike street bikes ). Buy KTMs for...

Resale is a real kick in the balls as dirtbikes have a shelf life if you race them ( unlike street bikes ). Buy KTMs for $10k and flipping for $5k is a tough one to swallow especially after you spend money to dial in the suspension etc..  Seems like the Japanese brands hold better value/ less depreciation at a notably lower entry point.

it would be interesting to see what the avg time of ownership before replacement is for the various OEMs.  I presume the higher the depreciation the longer the ownership ( I’m in this boat ).

MxAddic wrote:
Back in the day you wanted a new bike every 2-3 years just because they where so much better. Now it seems ride them until the...

Back in the day you wanted a new bike every 2-3 years just because they where so much better. Now it seems ride them until the wheels fall off is a good option.

Exactly

1/25/2025 5:05pm

The last few days, I've seen a bunch of media about KTM's new 390 series dual sport and supermoto bikes, seems like they are really pushing these new models.  Many articles state they will be in dealer showrooms by March.    Really?      I know these are made in India, but with KTM shutting down their Austrian production line for now, and the reported "warehouses full of unsold bikes", do you really think we will see these brand new KTM models in showrooms by March?   Seems like they should be focusing on selling all those unsold bikes sitting around, and not flooding dealers with new models, no?

1/25/2025 5:17pm Edited Date/Time 1/25/2025 5:20pm
The last few days, I've seen a bunch of media about KTM's new 390 series dual sport and supermoto bikes, seems like they are really pushing...

The last few days, I've seen a bunch of media about KTM's new 390 series dual sport and supermoto bikes, seems like they are really pushing these new models.  Many articles state they will be in dealer showrooms by March.    Really?      I know these are made in India, but with KTM shutting down their Austrian production line for now, and the reported "warehouses full of unsold bikes", do you really think we will see these brand new KTM models in showrooms by March?   Seems like they should be focusing on selling all those unsold bikes sitting around, and not flooding dealers with new models, no?

Bajaj produces those 390s for KTM, is in good financial standing, and surely can produce and wants those models in stock. I am sure it is in best interest of both Bajaj and Pierer that they produce and sell them.

2

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