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You’ve taken a dump on every metric mentioned on this page. I thought you were saying that the stock market was what you based your opinion on but I must have misunderstood. I’m just trying to get your answers, because you’ve suggested that you have them:
1. Why do you believe we are in a recession?
2. What metrics are you using and why are they more valid than all the others mentioned?
Here are your actual indicators…
Consumer Spending adjusted for inflation
Personal Income adjusted for inflation
Manufacturing and Trade Sales adjusted for inflation
Industrial Production
The Labor Market
Family and business opportunity, I'm lucky enough to have a very close family that's important to me and I don't want to leave an opportunity I have right now.
Hey I'll be the first to admit I've made some terrible decisions in hindsight that have made it a lot harder than it needs to be, but at some point we need to have a serious discussion about what's happening below the surface instead of just defaulting to assuming anyone who brings it up is lazy or incapable of figuring things out. I'm working plenty hard and making plenty of moves, as are a lot of people my age and eventually it will work out, but we need to stop just dismissing any discussion about the direction most of the developed world is going with their financial system and government. I don't know about you, but I don't want to continue to live in a world where we're spending the majority of our working time paying to fund the government and being forced into their useless savings account, that's not how you help a population create prosperity for themselves that's servitude.
It appears that you have been listening to some of the 'hot take' style of investors when you say that your house is not an asset. It most certainly is, and it's very easy to see why.
Let's say you buy a $500K house and you put 20% down ($100K). Your payment is going to be fairly close to the amount that it would cost to rent that same house, maybe slightly more or slightly less, but in the ballpark.
You keep the house for 10 years and it appreciates by a total of about 50% over the original selling price (now worth $750K). Remember, your monthly payments would have went to either your house payment or your rent, so your 'original investment' is still approximately $100K. Your profit of $250K (federal income tax exempt, by the way) was leveraged by only a $100K investment. Leveraging a $500K investment vehicle for only $100K is a great investment opportunity almost all the time, especially if you aren't 'over-buying' and trying to purchase a house that you couldn't/wouldn't rent for that same monthly cost.
Home ownership is the very basic of wealth building for most.
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CoreCPI, credit loans percentages, housing market, trucking industry, European banks, bonds, yields, IWM. All of these are real information that is not a moving goalpost by the administration. We have been in a recession for a while now and if you actually go by the scale we should be going by which was dropped in the 80’s you will see how bad it really is. Furthermore, what fucking economy is doing well? When consumer goods are inflated that is not a bi product of an healthy economy.
Ahh it appears you have fallen into the typical education on assets. Yes theoretically it is an asset if it continues to appreciate in value. Everyone knows that… but what happens when it not longer appreciates and it depreciates to the point that you now have a loan that is larger than the worth of the home. Would you still call that an asset? By definition it is no longer an asset. Again, a home is not a real asset. It has been in recent times thanks to the banking industry. But when that bubble pops again, a lot of people will be singing a different tune. Assets are something that continuously makes you money and holds intrinsic and extrinsic value.
What are some things you consider assets?
Gold, silver, paid off land, paid of home, anything that has value or produces value for you without taking time
Homie that’s all propped up by like a dozen companies…
Ever spout your mouth off in situations you don't know anything about? A lot of people clearly know nothing about our economy, how it functions, and what is really happening. But they will argue with you and all day long and tell you why you are wrong.
The question people don't ever ask is why is it appreciating 50% over 10 years? Did the house get better, did it grow in size, did the structure become more sturdy? The answer to all of those question is no (notwithstanding improvements to the house, which require input capital), so why is the price going up and why would it be worth more after 10 years of wear and tear? The answer is that our currency is based on nothing but hopes and dreams and they keep making more of it out of thin air, it might feel like building wealth but in reality it's just increasing the denominator of the fraction so the numerator has to increase to keep it balanced. This is the system we're used to and the system we've all come to know, but when you think about it from a standpoint of first principles there is no reason for the price of everything to continue to rise at varying rates year after year as its engineered to do. How do we think that a system where prices increase 50% every 10 years is sustainable? That's absolute insanity.
You forgot one of the biggies. You don't get to write off rent against your income so you're paying rent with taxed money and your house payment with pretax money.
The $10,000 in tax savings and $12,000 employee match my family receives yearly plus my annual rate of return says I’m well ahead of inflation
Curious how you feel gold and silver have value. Their performance has been terrible compared to the market. Also in the old days, gold and silver had a need, we really don’t need either as much nowadays
Shareholders and boards of companies expect 5 to 10% growth every year. This is how the value compounds over a short time. I’m not saying it is right, but that is how it has been all of our lives.
The smart economists want our national GDP to grow ~3% a year. Anyone wanting GDP growth over 5% is setting us up for inflation and a recession.
That's not what you wrote.
I stand by my original statement, I was just adding additional value to counter your inflation comment.
"My retirement investments are up 16% since January of 2021"
These were your words, if your "investments" are up 16% like you wrote, you haven't kept up with inflation. I'll leave it at that.
TM
Pit Row
You just proved exactly my point and what I've been alluding to this entire time. As you said, people expect around 2-3% GDP growth per year, but what happens when that isn't achieved? It's politically unacceptable to have zero or negative GDP growth, and the easiest way to goose that number is to print money and increase government spending. But here's the thing, that's not real growth and that's not real value, that's more or less an accounting trick covering up the underlying truth. That also has the second order consequence of debasing the currency, which makes everyone feel "wealthier" when in fact they're actually losing net value over time. Even at a 2% inflation rate the compounding loss of wealth over time is absolutely staggering, which is why they keep that target in place to incentivize consumers to spend rather than save.
Consider this, the US government is now the largest institution that has ever existed in the history of the world, and every single fiat currency in the history of the world has failed. Those two fact do not suggest a positive outcome for the future unless we wake up and demand radical change in how our monetary system is operated.
You and Z get it.
A couple of others here don't get the big picture.
They never will.
If what they say is working for them, or they believe it's working for them, let them go on believing it.
Without revealing too much personal financial info,
I will say that both of our rather comfortable working incomes have taken a massive hit due to bidenomics, and it's inflation.
Luckily she was smart enough to get us involved in the short term cabin/condo rental market bordering the GSMNP.
Two of the three are still more than paying for themselves.
The other is breaking even.
Hopefully we can get an administration that will be more capitalism friendly, thus allow people to free up more discretionary spending.
And improve our return on those investments.
Because despite what our newcomers to this thread are spewing, that's what a strong economy is all about.
Capitalism.
Anyone with any common sense has seen what this, and past administrations have done to totally fuck up that system.
Printing money.
Dependance on foreign oil, and just about every product on our store shelves.
Forcing us to pay for government health care.
Ever growing welfare/handout state.
Etc...etc...etc...
Their quest for endless rule over us is destroying our economic system.
Gold and silver are manipulated in the stock market heavily. But if you buy raw gold and silver then you have a proper hedge.
I make most of my money in the stock market, but it is not a real barometer for our economy.
I suggest everyone watch that video
much better version
His plane is going to have a malfunction after that speech. No way they let him live.
An honest speech about the world economy and how it has been driven. So many people stick their head in the sand and refuse to look up true information for themselves and do some real critical thinking
The economy has been crashed since Feb 2021. 8,000 trk empty & available for work in Chicago. Loads avail 78 that’s a 200 mi radius including 4 states with the most manufacturing. It has steadily become worse. Tens of thousands of co.s filed bankruptcy or went out of buisness. A 15 % increase in a corrupt industry- stock market means nothing. When the cost of most everything went up much more than 15% it doubled. So you lost 35% +. 3 stops in Denver 1 was hand unldng solar panels for. 5 + hrs with a regional manager team leader,etc. the other chic had a 5 name title. Not sure of the guy. Everyone in Denver is from somewhere else that I talked to. Everyone is moving to the new nich job . Windy to Ne. Then Nebraska has blowing snow 60 ft , you drive into a wall. Not that I wanted to but I ended up leading the traffic. Trk is the worst I ever seen in 6 decades. I wouldn’t be here but the money is really crap everywhere. It’s not great here & del to 24 ft trk property’s in 80 ft equipt is not fun. If I didn’t hv 1,500 + hrs of nyc city work. I would never make it in, getting out is always harder. Blowing snow a few ft off the rd then a 60 ft wall. I slow down & hope the 20 mpg person that don’t belong on the rd . Is hiding in there. Oh yeah the economy is so great that why we took a massive pay cut. We are the economy. No one is buying anything for quite a while now. Just the basics. Try to sell a bike or a vehicle. You,ll find out people r broke.
8k trks & 78 loads that’s 1 of many load boards. 2019 250k lds avail in Chicago 200 mi radius & no trks. That means the economy is on fire.
I was reading somewhere about there being record loan defaults and car repossessions.
And credit card debt all time high.
Banks have all but stopped extending loans to most commercial projects (like apartments and retail) at least in the Phoenix area. But probably true nationwide as well. The projects under construction now were originally approved and financed 1-2 years ago so it looks like lots of action. But the pipeline of future commercial and apartment construction is shit.
Post a reply to: 2023 Economy - Are you seeing signs of a recession yet?