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It depends. In 2019 it was used as a sign that a leader should be seen as God-like. Now, it’s seen as a sign that civilization is coming to an end.
The reasons for the completely opposite interpretations are not quite clear…..
Why listen to us? Maybe listen to someone that is more knowledgeable about the market. Maybe ask the Oracle of Omaha, why he has sold nearly $30 billion in stock in the first three quarters of 2023.
"For Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, Buffett's and Berkshire Hathaway's "recent lightening up on stocks and accumulation of a pile of cash—$157 billion—is consistent with the fact that stocks are relatively pricey right now."
But it's also, crucially, a sign "that a recession is right around the corner," Hanke told Newsweek."
Totally agree. The market is a waiting game and has historically risen. My net worth is still down 9% from the end of 2019. Spending/buying power is an earnings/cashflow game. My buying power is down over 30% in the same time period. Inflation, government spending/taxes, and forced rules/regulations suck people dry.
Recession...yep. Go to the grocery store or a restaurant, pay your insurance bill, pay your utility bills, take your dog to the vet, buy new tires or a battery for your car,...I could go on and on. Those prices are not going to come down.
Your last paragraph hits the nail on the head !!!
I can add to that the cost of high quality materials for my cabinet business.
It's still insanely overpriced.
And seriously cuts into my profit margin.
My labor rate has been raised twice since our current administration has taken over.
I'm tapped out on raising it any more, at the risk of my builder outsourcing my hand crafted product.
BTW, a trip to the grocery store two days ago.
$87, and carried it out in two plastic bags.
Plus a bottle of chocolate milk.
The Shop
DeCal Works Huge Plastic Inventory of UFO and Polisport kits.
Luxon 4-Post Bar Mounts
$189.95 - $239.95
I think most "experts", not the awesome Vital experts including myself, but folks who make a living analyzing the markets thought we would be in a recession by now. The fed may have executed a soft landing but inflation is still above their 2% target and they are betting on a delayed reaction to raising interest rates. Inflation will slowly continue to come down without further rate hikes.
Yesterdays move was triggered by the fed saying they may do 3 rate cuts next year starting in Q2, which will boost lending...and i think raise home prices.
But...some anecdotal stuff i have heard. Credit card debt is at an all time high...people dipping into their retirement plans to pay their bills has gone up 30%...the economy is being fueled more by the rich then it statistically on average has in the recent past(last 23 years)...our government debt is silly high...job market is slowing a smidge, there's 1.35 jobs for every person looking for a job where it was at 1.5 a couple months back.
I don't know...
Do you understand why it's up now vs why it was up in 2019? Different reasons.
That's like looking at 2 different chicks and not caring if one of them has a pecker under the dress.
Watched our glorious leader say that prices should come down because inflation has come down. Almost spit my beer out…
Inflation “year of year” has slowed down; but, prices…as you referenced…are waaaaay up since this administration took over. They’re NOT gonna come down. The President blames it all on Evil Corporations and Evil MAGA Republicans. As if! Hey, Joe? Inflation is still floating between 3-4 percent! As in it’s still climbing.
Policies matter. Elections have consequences. When you give away a ton of money? Well, you create your own inflation when you have silly policies like that. Since mid 2020, our government hasn’t done much of ANYTHING right. And, yes, that even includes some of Trump’s late-term policies.
When you combine this with this administrations energy policies…or lack there of…the wars we’re currently financing on 2 continents…the 9 million new people we're all paying for since they’ve walked across the border “seeking asylum”…the billions were giving to wonderful nations like Iran (psssst…Joe gave’em ANOTHER $10 Billion a coupl’a weeks ago…ON TOP of the $6 Billion he “gave back”)…Joe’s recent softening of financial demands on our NATO partners…etc., etc., etc. …well…🤔
As you stated, life has become a bit “more expensive”; because, our economy is taking the hit for all this Bidenomic Success!
Thanks Joe!
Had to laugh, and cringe at the same time when biden actually said, the manufacturers need to lower their prices to end inflation.
The stupid S.O.B. actually said that !!!
He said the same thing a while back about gas prices.
That the stations were charging too much.
What a buffoon.
You have an innate ability to know absolutely nothing about a subject and then for zero reason whatsoever, stick a large boot in your mouth.
The Biden defenders here have the intellect of year old dog shit. It’s absolutely pathetic. For five decades this asshole has done his best to fuck this country up. But some of you have such an hard on for DJT that you can’t see the forest for the trees. Again it’s time for claw hammers. They all deserve it.
What's the big deal, US recessions used to occur regularly...
They now occur less often, they used to be a Democratic thing, now they are a Republican thing...
August 1929 - March 1933 - Herbert Hoover (R)
May 1937 - June 1938 - Franklin D. Roosevelt (D)
February 1945 - October 1945 - Franklin D. Roosevelt (D)
November 1948 - October 1949 - Harry S. Truman (D)
July 1953 - May 1954 - Dwight D. Eisenhower (R)
August 1957 - April 1958 - Dwight D. Eisenhower (R)
November 1973 - March 1975 - Richard Nixon (R)
January 1980 - July 1980 - Jimmy Carter (D)
July 1981 - November 1982 - Ronald Reagan (R)
July 1990 - March 1991 - George H. W. Bush (R)
March 2001 - November 2001 - George W. Bush (R)
December 2007 - June 2009 - George W. Bush (R)
February 2020 - April 2020 - Donald Trump (R)
It's not like world events or what the previous administration did affects the next term.... Too many variables. The big democrats and the media sure have a lot of people fooled.
What’s the big deal? They keep fucking away our money. I don’t give a shit about foreign conflict. Take care of the ones on home soil.
This thread is about the economy and if there are signs of a recession, you are concern how your government spends tax payer's money, your comment is off topic!
You, young man, are priceless entertainment.
I'm 65 next month and most of our retirement is invested in mutual funds. They finally went up this last statement after being pretty stagnant or dropping each month, and I'm guessing (hoping) they will go up this month too. How do you know when to pull it out and jump off the rollercoaster ?
Always hilarious when a clown, like him, enters a thread and proceeds to put their ignorance on display.
Pit Row
Depends on what type of mutual funds, but if you are looking at anything close to a ‘normal’ retirement scenario you should have probably moved towards asset preservation type of investments several years ago. Most stock heavy mutual funds are geared more towards the accumulation phases, with varying risk/volativity profiles. As you get closer to retirement, the less volatile you want your investments to be. When you actually retire, you want to be in investments with higher income profiles, such as solid and predictable dividends, etc.
At 65, if you haven’t already then I’d spend a couple of dollars to visit a financial planner ASAP.
Sending hundreds of billions of dollars to other countries sure as fuck helps us hit recession. You’re an Australian commenting on a US topic. That’s the same stupid logic you’re using.
Manny, do you remember how necessary invading Iraq was?
Day after day, you were jumping up and down about nuclear weapons; failing UN weapons examiners; aluminum tubes; and how I was nothing more than a “Bush Basher” because I thought that war was wrong.
when do you realize that you are a broken record?
You have the same solution for every problem.
Bang on the table in ALL CAPS until the other person comes to their senses, and walks away.
Since 2016, the Silent Majority has spoken at EVERY election cycle.
CAs $68B deficit. Is anyone really surprised by this? The high income earners are leaving in droves, you know the ones, the ones that pay the taxes and support the rest of the state.
The number of unemployed workers in California has risen nearly 200,000 since the summer of 2022. This has resulted in a jump in the state’s unemployment rate from 3.8 percent to 4.8 percent. Similarly, inflation-adjusted incomes posted five straight quarters of year-over-year declines from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter 2023.
So, you’ve been right all along. Do I have that right? OK. Got it.
But, I notice you’ve got nothing to contribute here as we comment on something entirely different.
As for Iraq? I was a Powell believer. That doesn’t hurt my feelings one bit.
i spend almost as much on groceries for a household of 4 as i do on my mortgage.
daycare for my 3 year old is $1k per month.
cost of living is fucked.
None of us can change the system. So you either work against it, or with it. There are no paths to success 100% of the time, but there are avenues & options that can generate positive results most of the time.
In Vegas, you’re a hero if you win 53% of the time. Same philosophy applies to investing. Sure, you can land a big hand every now and then, but it’s consistently that generates best long-term results.
While inflation is down and the market is up, it still “feels” like there’s an economic struggle. Sure, my house is worth 50% more today than 2019, but that doesn’t help cash flow. And my investments have skyrocketed recently, but that same rocket can return to earth just as quickly.
Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was…
Your investments are just seeing typical Santa rally or tax dividends being managed. I withdrew all of my 401k etc paid the taxes and have reinvested my own way. You are correct, cash flow is king and even after all of the stimulus checks etc people are already struggling. I just wish people realized that the stock market is not in direct correlation to the economy.
damn, I guess we are in a recession
https://www.vitalmx.com/forums/moto-related/no-12-days-moto-xmas-year#c…
I was just going to post the same. If that isn’t an indication times are not peachy, I don’t know what is.
We've been through 3 since we started these accounts 30 plus years ago. Long story is I don't have much faith in our latest one (A family member, not immediate but in the family) I think the past 2 years they've made more off my investments than us. They charge a percentage of the total which has been between 275 and 300 a month. We're still putting in a grand a month, so almost 30% of our monthly contribution goes right in their pocket regardless if our accounts are earning or not that month. Seems like a great deal, ... for them
Post a reply to: 2023 Economy - Are you seeing signs of a recession yet?