Will Keefer make the show?

McG194
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According to the entry list Kris Keefer is scheduled to race. Swap was talking about it a bit, what's the consensus, does he qualify, score points or choke it away? 

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How will Keefer do this weekend?

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GD350
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5/24/2023 7:28am

My confidence in it happening is not very high after listening to his latest podcast. If he does go for it, I think he qualifies 

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Camp332
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5/24/2023 7:30am

Love the guy. Don't think he makes the 40 man gate. 

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kNewc
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5/24/2023 7:30am

What where his lap times vs qualifying the last time he tried? (If I'm not mistaken he tried for one a few years ago?) 

disbanded
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5/24/2023 7:39am

Nope

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The Shop

McG194
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5/24/2023 7:40am
kNewc wrote:

What where his lap times vs qualifying the last time he tried? (If I'm not mistaken he tried for one a few years ago?) 

He did try and all but admitted to choking. On Swap's podcast A-Ray was pretty much saying that Keefer could work him. Not sure I'd go far but I believe him if he says he has qualifying speed. 

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Gary Duck
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5/24/2023 8:25am

Good for him if he wants to give it a go and have a good time on his bike. He's a vet rider not a professional racer so don't expect much from his performance. I hope he has a blast out there!

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TeamGreen
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5/24/2023 8:33am

I’m hoping he makes it on the gate. 💪🏻

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5/24/2023 8:36am

If he was racing in then i would say the chances would be better, it's really tough putting it in the show off one hot lap. Even harder when your in the practice group he will likely be in.

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NicNak
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5/24/2023 8:36am

If he rides like he typically does then yeah he's in the show. At Cal Classic his fastest lap was 1.5 seconds off Ryder D & he smoked a bunch of guys who qualify...i know that was at GH so he's got that place dialed but still very good.

The hardest part of a national is doing a qualifying lap when the course is not ideal (the top pros make it look so easy), the courses are "over-prepped" compared to what we usually ride. I am assuming he is 450 B practice, which is last practice, the most difficult. 450 A definitely has an advantage. He's gotta catch a good feeling on the bike & track on the first lap then lay down a lap on laps 2-3-4. No time to get warmed up & figure the track out. Just go on the green flag, which is at the end of the first lap (1st lap roll lap, 2nd lap green flag go)

I'm rooting for him to make it so i'll be watching! 

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ML512
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5/24/2023 8:48am

Kris was six seconds off qualifying in 2019 at Fox Raceway. On a bike he didn't really like too much...and a mental mess.

I'm around Kris a decent amount, he's riding better than ever...he's on a bike he likes...the class is way thinner...I think he can do it. Timed qualifying will be the hardest part, he'll be good in the motos if he can just get past qualifying. 

Funny example, at that 2019 race Derek Kelley, RJ Wageman, and Jeff Walker all didn't qualify out of 450 timed practice as well (just like Kris). Derek was top ten in a couple 250 moto last year and got a sixth in a 250 SX main this year. Jeff Walker went from not qualifying to scoring points in a few motos last year.

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ripper69
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5/24/2023 9:11am
GD350 wrote:

My confidence in it happening is not very high after listening to his latest podcast. If he does go for it, I think he qualifies 

which pod?

5/24/2023 9:11am

Outright speed, I think he has it, unfortunately I think he's too smart and mature (on the bike 😂) for his own good.

I'm pretty much the same age as Kris and there is just too much sense in my head to push it like I used to in a risky environment. At some point most people go from "how can I go faster" to "what might happen if I go faster"

Just my opinion, but I hope he does qualify!

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enketchum
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5/24/2023 9:13am

I don't think we can work with speed applies here 

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motomind132
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5/24/2023 9:49am

It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit hurts guys like him. If he makes it out of there I'll bet there will be a few guys surprised to get passed by him or not catch him.

 

So far this year I'm 1 for 1 on my vital predictions. Mcelrath got multiple top 7s when I had people saying he would never make the top 12.

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LungButter
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5/24/2023 9:53am
It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit...

It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit hurts guys like him. If he makes it out of there I'll bet there will be a few guys surprised to get passed by him or not catch him.

 

So far this year I'm 1 for 1 on my vital predictions. Mcelrath got multiple top 7s when I had people saying he would never make the top 12.

He got those top 7s in the last 4 rounds when the field was massively depleted....before that his best finish was ironically 12th and he was on average a 16th place guy.

Soooo....you were "right" I guess but I still don't think you can parade around and call Shane a "top 7 guy"....and if we're gonna then Moranz is also a top 7 guy Tongue

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McG194
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5/24/2023 10:42am
It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit...

It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit hurts guys like him. If he makes it out of there I'll bet there will be a few guys surprised to get passed by him or not catch him.

 

So far this year I'm 1 for 1 on my vital predictions. Mcelrath got multiple top 7s when I had people saying he would never make the top 12.

LungButter wrote:
He got those top 7s in the last 4 rounds when the field was massively depleted....before that his best finish was ironically 12th and he was...

He got those top 7s in the last 4 rounds when the field was massively depleted....before that his best finish was ironically 12th and he was on average a 16th place guy.

Soooo....you were "right" I guess but I still don't think you can parade around and call Shane a "top 7 guy"....and if we're gonna then Moranz is also a top 7 guy Tongue

Do those top 7's get asterisks?  Laughing

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LungButter
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5/24/2023 10:44am
McG194 wrote:
Do those top 7's get asterisks?  

Do those top 7's get asterisks?  Laughing

Nah....but I also don't think they are something to hang your hat on either.  

Shane is an amazing rider no doubt, but he has proven since moving up to a 450 that he belongs around 12th-16th place.

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GrapeApe
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5/24/2023 11:33am Edited Date/Time 5/24/2023 11:47am
It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit...

It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit hurts guys like him. If he makes it out of there I'll bet there will be a few guys surprised to get passed by him or not catch him.

 

So far this year I'm 1 for 1 on my vital predictions. Mcelrath got multiple top 7s when I had people saying he would never make the top 12.

You made predictions about last SX season with an account that is 12 days old? lol

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enketchum
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5/24/2023 11:37am
It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit...

It all depends on if Dunlop hooks him up with some spec tires. All kidding aside. He's more then fast enough but the hot lap bullshit hurts guys like him. If he makes it out of there I'll bet there will be a few guys surprised to get passed by him or not catch him.

 

So far this year I'm 1 for 1 on my vital predictions. Mcelrath got multiple top 7s when I had people saying he would never make the top 12.

GrapeApe wrote:

You made predictions about last SX season with an account that is 12 days old? lol

image-20230524113746-1

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5/24/2023 11:45am

I think Keefer would do alright if he made it into the motos (endurance, toughness) but I'm not sure if he has that raw speed to qualify directly in.

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McG194
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5/24/2023 11:48am
McG194 wrote:
Do those top 7's get asterisks?  

Do those top 7's get asterisks?  Laughing

LungButter wrote:
Nah....but I also don't think they are something to hang your hat on either.   Shane is an amazing rider no doubt, but he has proven since...

Nah....but I also don't think they are something to hang your hat on either.  

Shane is an amazing rider no doubt, but he has proven since moving up to a 450 that he belongs around 12th-16th place.

It was a joke referring to a since deleted thread. 

As far as him belonging 12-16th place I can't agree with that. It may be where he was placing but I think he just hasn't had the proper development yet. He definitely would have benefitted from a couple more years in 250's. A couple years in the right program with the right development and I think he's a 5-8 guy. 

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5/24/2023 12:01pm

If his home-Life is good, he makes the top 40, around 38th.  Finished 29th and 34th.  

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skeef
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5/24/2023 12:15pm

Will he have the GET ecu? 
 

I think he makes it. Maybe a higher chance of making it in via lcq race. 

Teejay
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5/24/2023 12:33pm

What’s he riding? I’m not too up to date. 

RichieW13
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5/24/2023 12:41pm
Teejay wrote:

What’s he riding? I’m not too up to date. 

YAM YZ 450F

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tek14
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5/24/2023 12:54pm

Pretty much anyone can make it now as 80% Factory riders not riding this summer. 

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need2ride
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5/24/2023 12:59pm

Wasn't it a scorcher last time?   The weather forecast should help him on Sat. 

LungButter
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5/24/2023 1:12pm
McG194 wrote:
It was a joke referring to a since deleted thread.  As far as him belonging 12-16th place I can't agree with that. It may be where...

It was a joke referring to a since deleted thread. 

As far as him belonging 12-16th place I can't agree with that. It may be where he was placing but I think he just hasn't had the proper development yet. He definitely would have benefitted from a couple more years in 250's. A couple years in the right program with the right development and I think he's a 5-8 guy. 

We're getting derailed here (imagine that) but dudes first year in the 250s was 2014...how many years did he need?

Maybe if he woulda taken a few more dives to stay down he coulda figured it out eventually....or maybe he just is what he is?  We'll have to leave it up to history I guess.....

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McG194
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5/24/2023 1:26pm
McG194 wrote:
It was a joke referring to a since deleted thread.  As far as him belonging 12-16th place I can't agree with that. It may be where...

It was a joke referring to a since deleted thread. 

As far as him belonging 12-16th place I can't agree with that. It may be where he was placing but I think he just hasn't had the proper development yet. He definitely would have benefitted from a couple more years in 250's. A couple years in the right program with the right development and I think he's a 5-8 guy. 

LungButter wrote:
We're getting derailed here (imagine that) but dudes first year in the 250s was 2014...how many years did he need? Maybe if he woulda taken a...

We're getting derailed here (imagine that) but dudes first year in the 250s was 2014...how many years did he need?

Maybe if he woulda taken a few more dives to stay down he coulda figured it out eventually....or maybe he just is what he is?  We'll have to leave it up to history I guess.....

You may be right on both the derailing and where he stands. I just think 450's are so damn tough that I err to the side of staying down longer. 250 career vs 250 career I think McElrath is better than RJ Hampshire but right this second I think RJ is more ready for 450 than Shane is. 

To further derail it I think a guy like AP went up too fast, he had one great year and was thrown to the wolves. I think he finally gets his breakout year this outdoor season. 

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