Chase vs Jett Outdoors

MXoN is not a clear indicator of anything IMO. It was wet, and Tomac/Sexton were trying NOT to lose again on home soil. They had the target on their backs, not Jett or Ferrandis. Two riders putting in limited risk/conservative rides vs two riders with nothing to lose.. not a good data set.

Free practice.

Redbud 2022 MXON had track conditions ranging from dry and fast to muddy, raining and gnarly, and it was run over 3 days.

To me, that is what made it such a good indicator of rider ability and why I am confident that Jett's form there, beating Sexton hands down 3 times, including Race 2 when it was all still up for grabs, coming in first, (with Chase 3rd on the big bikes), and seeing off ex World and AMA champions to win the individual prize was a good indicator.

Ferrandis is very fast, but seems to have to turn it down to stay upright.

For gate pick....

Nope they dont count for gatepick. There is no timed practice at mxdn

My bad.

Of course, it's the televised Ballot.

I think Jett wins it, in his own words he said he's been riding the 450 more now than he was building up to mxon, and he also said he's faster on it now than he was then. One things for sure, putting another year of maturity  on his body, I bet he hasn't gotten slower.

Is there a supercross championship hangover potential with Chase? 

I don't think so in this case... if anything he wants to prove that he deserves the championship.

I think if Dylan comes in healthy he'll win. If not I have chase. 

Chase has to be the odds-on favorite for the title. He'd better grab it while he can, because 2024 (and many subsequent years) will be the Jett Lawrence show. 

Hasn't Pala been Sexton's best track too, if I remember correctly he's won race/moto's each time there. So Sexton vs Jett is going to be epic

I'm really hoping Dylan can make this a legit 3 man battle and maybe even AC can get in the mix. His confidence is growing every race and I can't help but wonder if he's more comfortable outdoors as well.  That being said...if Chase & Jett stay healthy they could push each other and gap everyone.  I don't usually put much stock into guys running at the top right after moving up to 450's but Jett has such smooth style and throttle control I don't expect him to struggle too much. Especially now with so many top guys out he should be a podium guy every race. 

Not sure who’s going to win. Im just ready for it. Hoping they all stay healthy and battle.

I like Jett. But I cant see him matching Chase in his rookie season on a 450. I think he will get an overall here and there.

But 24 motos at the pace Sexton has proven he can run is a bit much IMO for a rookie season. Not sure how Ferrandis will figure into things. But I have Sexton finishing ahead of Jett this year atleast.

I don't know if it's his best track, but here are his results at Pala for comparison. 

2019 Pala (250)
4th: 5-5

2020 Fox Raceway
1st: 3-1

2021 Fox Raceway 1
5th: 2-10

2022 Fox Raceway 1
1st: 1-1

2022 Fox Raceway 2
2nd: 2-2

When was the last time a 19 year old was expected to win a 450 title in their rookie year?

Js7 is the only guy 2 be a contender at 19.

Both rc and RV didn't race the 450 class in mx till they were 20.

And that's where the elite guys only raced 3 years in the 250 class comment breaks down. Jett did 3.5 years and is still younger then RV and rc going 450. (Cue the comment rc raced 450 sx in his 3rd year/ 19 years old comment)

I think Jett will win at least 3 rounds. But it's his rookie year and Chase has more experience. I think Jett just has something very special that we rarely see. After this season I think Jett will start his assault on the record books. Most riders at his age don't have the maturity he has. He has a good understanding of what it takes to win one race and the series. He doesn't appear to "force" it when he doesn't need to. Maybe this comes from excellent coaching? He just has the talent and mindset for the long run.

How many rounds until we see this?

You have to think this has been a huge focus of the Lawrence camp this year - especially the last few months the way sx went. I’d say he will come out flying. 
 

what’s the word on Ferrandis? Has he been pounding motos?

I’m not fan boying Jett at all. 
 

But I believe he will win the 450s straight up in his first year. 

I just had a thought.

Ppl keep saying in 2-3 years times when all the 30 year olds retire. It will just be jett vs sexton.

Well this is literally a preview.

And who else is there? The 27/28 year olds plessinger , ac and ferrandis. All the 30+ years olds are gone.

Clear or not I'd say it's a pretty clear indicator what he's going to do on a 450 first on debut on the world stage, Yes the US guys are most likely the fastest guys out there and "weren't risking it" however he beat everyone on his first race, even if he gets an extra 3-5% of that speed he's going to podium...  a lot.

And the sample size of what he's done on a 250f his maturity and race knowledge is as good as it gets, rarely does he make a big mistake that got cleaned up real quick in his career.

Kenny and Chase’s issues with the bike have been predominantly in SX, not Outdoors.

Where are all the ap title predictions coming from?

This confuses me too. He hasn't even won a 450 race indoors or outdoors yet and people are thinking he will contend for the title? AP has 1 race where he should have won and went down. To battle for championships you have to be able to fight forward on a bad start, he hasn't even proven to be able to do that yet. All his podiums have been from top 3 starts or leaders going down. Love the Cowboy, but title contention, I don't see it this year, sorry.

Chase and Jett are on the same bike so if there are bike issues they are both going to have to deal with it.

This is one of the most level headed posts in this thread.

Jett will be fast. He will win motos. He will also make mistakes.