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Edited Date/Time
1/27/2019 5:53am
I wrote this last October...
So Webb is at KTM and hasn't done so well in the 450 class his first few years. Can he win a 450 title? The odds are looking pretty good for him - if history means anything.
Riders who struggled going from 125 to 250 or 250 to 450 class before winning a Championship
Carmichael - Moved up in 1999 - won first Championship in 2000
Reed - Moved up in 2003 - won first Championship in 2004
Stewart - Moved up in 2005 - won first Championship in 2007
RV - Moved up in 2010 - won first Championship in 2011
Dungey - Moved up in 2010 - won Championship first year, but didn't win another Championship again until 2015
Anderson - Moved up in 2016 - won first Championship in 2018
Also worth noting is that Webb is now under the watchful eye of DeCoster and Baker as Training Coach
As Team Manager DeCoster has won 23 Championships and Managed Team USA to 4 Trophe Des Nations titles and 22 Motocross Des Nations titles.
Baker has coached his riders to 29 Championships (17 Supercross Championship titles and 12 National Motocross titles) - many riders of which did not win until they came under Baker's training program.
Can Webb win? No reason not to. It looks more like it is his to lose...
So Webb is at KTM and hasn't done so well in the 450 class his first few years. Can he win a 450 title? The odds are looking pretty good for him - if history means anything.
Riders who struggled going from 125 to 250 or 250 to 450 class before winning a Championship
Carmichael - Moved up in 1999 - won first Championship in 2000
Reed - Moved up in 2003 - won first Championship in 2004
Stewart - Moved up in 2005 - won first Championship in 2007
RV - Moved up in 2010 - won first Championship in 2011
Dungey - Moved up in 2010 - won Championship first year, but didn't win another Championship again until 2015
Anderson - Moved up in 2016 - won first Championship in 2018
Also worth noting is that Webb is now under the watchful eye of DeCoster and Baker as Training Coach
As Team Manager DeCoster has won 23 Championships and Managed Team USA to 4 Trophe Des Nations titles and 22 Motocross Des Nations titles.
Baker has coached his riders to 29 Championships (17 Supercross Championship titles and 12 National Motocross titles) - many riders of which did not win until they came under Baker's training program.
Can Webb win? No reason not to. It looks more like it is his to lose...
He was 8 seconds down after the crash and within 2 at the checkers while passing Eli and Ken.
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Ricky moved up in 1999 and didn't win until 2001. He won outdoors in 2000, which is the same year he moved up in that championship.
Villopoto moved up in 2009.
Anderson moved up in 2015.
Second, all of those guys had multiple podiums and race wins in their first year.
Nice try, but with the exception of Anderson none of those guys struggled in the 450 class in their year.
1. Carmichael won his first 250 Otdoor title in 2000 beating Tortelli after getting waxed by McGrath that year in SX
2. RV only made it two rounds in '09 before moving up full time to the 450 class in 2010.
3. 'Struggle" says who? You / me? Really not worth arguing over subjective stuff. I go with what the riders themselves said. None of the riders I mentioned were happy with their first year(s) after moving up, A win here or there didn't satisfy them and they ALL expected better of themselves. Exactly why they went on to win Championships later...
And yep - got Anderson wrong. It didn't take him two years to win a Championship after moving up. It took him three years - my bad. He moved up in '15 not '16.
Kinda helps prove my point though doesn't it...
Webb wouldn't be the first to move up coming off of a Lites / 125 Championship and have to pay his dues before winning a Big Boy Championship. In the last decade or so (See list above) most of the premier class Champions took a while until they won a Championship.
I picked Webb for the SX Championship this year last October based on the above facts, the team he is on and the people who he has surrounded himself with.
Who did you pick?
What is probably the most intriguing aspect of Cooper Webb this year, is what he talked about on pulpx last monday. Things were rocky at first with Aldon Baker, mostly because of how surprising it was that he wasnt in the best shape. He admitted he told Aldon not to worry as much because once at the races he "turns it on". Aldon was like "no". And he just recently started going full out all week all off season. That, to me, says alot. Especially when his competitors (Anderson, Musquin) have been doing this for years.
So what does Webb have that the "stacked field" doesn't have outside of the odds and the right attitude? Decoster & Baker. I have said it before.... If it was your retirement savings and the 450 class team managers and trainers were brokers, who would you put your hard earned savings with if you wanted to make some $$$?
Not even close in my book. Based on past performance, I would sleep pretty good at night knowing my money was safe with DeCoster & Baker.
And who is most likely to challenge Webb? Marv of course
- Yeah, I know DeCoster is no longer the team Manager - by name
Lack of premium talent.
The stat that matters is that they won within the first couple years. None of the past several champions were as deep into their 450 career as Roczen, Tomac and Musquin. They are all outside the window of time that every other champion took to get it done. No one has won their first supercross championship after that many years without one.
Pit Row
However Webb's comments about training intensity are surprising to me, especially since he was training with Swanepoel right? Thought that program was intense aswell
So 1 out of the past 17 sx championships came from a guy who didn’t win any in his rookie year.. the “stats” as you say couldn’t be farther from Webb’s side.
The dude is as some say “like, literally, legit riding the wheels off his bike” and he may not lose another race in his career. But to go ahead and crown him champ is a little excessive to me.
As far as my point goes, history is a pretty reliable look at what the future holds. Even in motocross. Forget Webb. At this point in history, you would be foolish to bet against DeCoster and Baker.
As far as Webb goes...
The SX class is "stacked" this year not because the top 15 riders are all so good (they have always been good). It's because they are all good riders on equipment that is all pretty much the same. The difference this year is that there isn't really that one stand out rider that is dominating.
And for me, I always look at that stand out rider to see what does he have that the others don't? Talent? Bike set up? Massive funding from a "factory" team? Pretty much all of the top 15+ riders have all of that.
What distinguishes the top rider is his attitude.
Webb has developed the right attitude this year. The gunfighter finger point at Roczen was just a result of that attitude.
If he can keep the "attitude" he will take it.
Great to see finally
2. Yes history does say Marv has better odds than the other riders.
3. Between Marv & Webb it is about attitude
4. I am going with Webb over Marv
1. We are talking SX aren’t we? Because the stats you put up are from SX. If you’re now counting outdoor titles then there are a heap of other errors.
2. No, RV rode the whole 450 series in ‘09, picking up two wins against the reigning SX champion, Stewart.
3. From your original post - Riders who struggled going from 125 to 250 or 250 to 450 class before winning a Championship
So none of what you really wrote makes sense.
- Reed won more races than RC in ‘03, including six straight wins, and missed the title by 4 points.
- Stewart only raced six events in ‘05 (due to injury) but won three.
- Dungey won six races in 2010 to win the title.
All three came out in their first SX season and started beating the reigning champion immediately. Even RV did it twice in his first year.
- RC struggled in SX initially but as you point out was waxing everyone outdoors, but then went on to win five straight SX titles.
- RV won a couple in his first year but then went on to win four straight titles.
So it’s only Anderson who is remotely comparable.
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