Chances of winning a Championship when over 30.

fox1nz
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Edited Date/Time 4/1/2016 10:26pm
I know there has been a few guys win Championships when they over 30, but I think those days are over.
I'm talking MXGP or AMA supercross/motocross
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kongols
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3/30/2016 9:18pm
In SX, Mcgrath won when 29 years old. In modern era no one`s come close.
fox1nz
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3/30/2016 9:23pm Edited Date/Time 3/30/2016 9:26pm
Everts won four MX1 titles over 30. But like you say kongols, in this modern Era no one come close. So I wonder why teams sign over 30's .
cwtoyota
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3/30/2016 9:49pm
I don't think it's all physical. I believe most guys reach their lifetime physical peak in their late 20's into their early 30's. That's why there are so many great cyclists, triathletes and athletes in other sports in that age range.

I believe an athlete gets some of it for free at a young age. He doesn't necessarily have the years of experience and pain built up to be as tough as an older guy. It seems to me that age and experience dulls the day to day stuff that seems hard for most young guys. Essentially what I'm saying is that older guys have to work harder to be in shape, but some of them can because they're used to hard work and pain.

On the other hand, motivation to go out each day and just pick up a weight or put on your running shoes can be a challenge the older you get. Getting motivated to get started becomes the hard part.

I also think some of the old guys remember past injuries so they don't take those extra risks because they know it's a gamble. Instead they tend to play it safe in order to be on every starting gate through the season.

So I think motivation and willingness to take that extra level of risk are the main things that escape an older guy's grasp and prevent him from winning.
kongols
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3/30/2016 9:54pm Edited Date/Time 3/30/2016 9:55pm
cwtoyota wrote:
I don't think it's all physical. I believe most guys reach their lifetime physical peak in their late 20's into their early 30's. That's why there...
I don't think it's all physical. I believe most guys reach their lifetime physical peak in their late 20's into their early 30's. That's why there are so many great cyclists, triathletes and athletes in other sports in that age range.

I believe an athlete gets some of it for free at a young age. He doesn't necessarily have the years of experience and pain built up to be as tough as an older guy. It seems to me that age and experience dulls the day to day stuff that seems hard for most young guys. Essentially what I'm saying is that older guys have to work harder to be in shape, but some of them can because they're used to hard work and pain.

On the other hand, motivation to go out each day and just pick up a weight or put on your running shoes can be a challenge the older you get. Getting motivated to get started becomes the hard part.

I also think some of the old guys remember past injuries so they don't take those extra risks because they know it's a gamble. Instead they tend to play it safe in order to be on every starting gate through the season.

So I think motivation and willingness to take that extra level of risk are the main things that escape an older guy's grasp and prevent him from winning.
I don`t think it`s physical. It`s mental. You can`t compare cycling or triathlon to MX. MX is dangerous and at a young age you take chances you would rarely take when you`re older. Father time.

Edit. Sorry, didn`t read your last two sentences before I posted.

The Shop

cwtoyota
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3/30/2016 10:15pm
kongols wrote:
I don`t think it`s physical. It`s mental. You can`t compare cycling or triathlon to MX. MX is dangerous and at a young age you take chances...
I don`t think it`s physical. It`s mental. You can`t compare cycling or triathlon to MX. MX is dangerous and at a young age you take chances you would rarely take when you`re older. Father time.

Edit. Sorry, didn`t read your last two sentences before I posted.
Yeah, I think we agree entirely.

The best physical shape I've ever been in was at age 32 (I'm 35 now). I'm convinced that for at least some of us, the physical is still attainable into our 30's. That was my point with the cyclists, triathletes, etc. I agree that their mental game is nothing like motocross in terms of risk/danger.
fox1nz
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3/30/2016 10:19pm
Indy car and F1 really come into their prime in their 30's .. Why is this so?
cwtoyota
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3/30/2016 10:44pm
fox1nz wrote:
Indy car and F1 really come into their prime in their 30's .. Why is this so?
Experience would be my bet. Driving cars takes patience and precision, not risk. Patience comes with age for most of us.

The guy who can stay smooth and stay in the "race line" is the fast guy in a car. They have the cars and the traction so well tuned that it's well within the range of human error. So the only variable for the driver is to stay in the race line, that takes practice. That's why I'm not as interested in car racing, it does not reward creative racers the way moto does.

Even Moto GP rewards a little creative racing. I never got into it, but not because it isn't exciting.

I think in motocross, you have so many factors that go into racing. The mental aspect is huge. I think by the time most guys have the mental game figured out, they lose that youthful ability to take risks. I think if you graphed curves for willingness to take risk vs age and experience vs age, they would cross somewhere in the younger or mid 20s for most of the current pro motocross racers.
fox1nz
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3/30/2016 10:59pm Edited Date/Time 3/30/2016 11:02pm
I taught scuba diving for many years, the young ones were a breeze to teach, no questions asked..
the older they are the more slower they are to teach. So young ones don't think about consequences of fucking up.
another year older another 10th slower aye
roninho
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3/31/2016 1:01am
My bet would be: motivation in combination with the accumulated effect of injuries.

We are talking about guys being able to win a championship. So that is allready a very small group of riders, for MX1 today you are talking about Dungey, Roczen, Tomac, Barcia.

When these guys are 30 they will have won titles, have made an enormous amount of money and have been doing this for over 10 to even 15 years. I can see that there comes a point where the motivation will simply be gone. Like RV2.



HenryA
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3/31/2016 1:04am
kongols wrote:
In SX, Mcgrath won when 29 years old. In modern era no one`s come close.
Chad Reed was very close to win another title in 2011 when he was 29. But yeah, still not over 30.
Flip109
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3/31/2016 1:28am
I think the risk taking really starts to slip around 28-29. And like someone stated, by that age if they were good enough to win championships, they prob already have and are well off and have families. So not into taking huge risks anymore to hang with the young guns week in and week out. It's very possible still but not very likely. The talent pool of young riders is to deep these days.
3/31/2016 2:05am
not very high,
has anyone apart from Everts done it in the last 30 years?
fox1nz
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3/31/2016 2:19am
BT and CR22 would have a different opinion. I would love for them to prove us wrong. And they are in it to win it.
Lowlander
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3/31/2016 2:19am
Speaking from personal experience, hitting 28 I started to question pushing it as hard as I could at my level and taking additional risks. especially with 2 young kids.

I honestly think that with all extreme sports that have high risk factors you peak not at your physical peak, but somewhere close to when the mental aspect kicks in for self preservation.

A lot of modern down hill mountain bikers, snow boarders, BMX'rs, Skaters etc etc all struggle as they approach 30 and beyond. Its certainly not a physical thing.

Take some of the hardest sports in the world physically, Boxing, Soccer, Basketball, Cycling, MMA, Athletics, and the list goes on. They physically peak typically late twenties early thirties.

But boxing/MMA has some similarities on the self preservation thing. There are some boxers you couldn't knock down with a truck, yet typically there comes a time when they are in a war and there body can't take it by either being knocked out or TKO'd or the corner throws in the towel.

Is it because they can't physically compete in that war. I don't think so. I think the mental aspect of self preservation in that particular fight or camp leading up to it has kicked in and they don't perform to the same level. Now it is probably so little of a performance drop just like motocross i.e. not willing to push or take that chance thats needed for the knockout punch or 1/10th of a second in a section.

But that adds up to slow lap times, getting knocked out.

Can Chad compete at that level for example. Of course he can. Is he mentally prepared to push for 17 rounds and 12 rounds. Not so sure. We will see the same thing with Dungey in a few years as well. He will be physically as able as anyone on the track. But the younger riders will be willing to risk it all and that is when the reigns pass over to the next dominant force.

Fearo
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3/31/2016 2:32am Edited Date/Time 3/31/2016 2:34am
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please don't tell me MotoGP has less risk than motocross...

I think the major factor is the length and starting age of a racer's career. In motocross, turning pro at 19 is considered late, in cycling a 22 year old pro is considered extremely young.

By the time they are 30, a motocross racer has had a pro career of nearly 15 years. That is a long freaking time in a sport as mentally and physically draining as motocross. I am convinced that if it was more 'normal' to turn pro at age 20 or later we would have a lot more championship contenders in their 30s.
10000hrs
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3/31/2016 2:50am
I read somewhere that the portion of the brain responsible for understanding consequences doesnt fully develop until around age 29. Took me until 32.
jamma10
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3/31/2016 2:51am Edited Date/Time 3/31/2016 3:01am
Around the time I turned 30 it felt a bit like a switch being flicked from 'Capable' to 'Incapable'.

My endurance dropped, my reaction times slowed and my general skill level seemed to decrease, not just riding but in other sports I also play/played. Reeds skills have been developed and conditioned over many years, technically he's one of the best SX riders ever, but I expect he's finding it a lot tougher than he'll admit, especially mentally.
kongols
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3/31/2016 3:04am Edited Date/Time 3/31/2016 3:07am
fox1nz wrote:
BT and CR22 would have a different opinion. I would love for them to prove us wrong. And they are in it to win it.
Pipe dream.
When Ben comes to Latvia in a month, I`ll be cheering for him to kick major euro ass.
roninho
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3/31/2016 3:18am
Fearo wrote:
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please...
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please don't tell me MotoGP has less risk than motocross...

I think the major factor is the length and starting age of a racer's career. In motocross, turning pro at 19 is considered late, in cycling a 22 year old pro is considered extremely young.

By the time they are 30, a motocross racer has had a pro career of nearly 15 years. That is a long freaking time in a sport as mentally and physically draining as motocross. I am convinced that if it was more 'normal' to turn pro at age 20 or later we would have a lot more championship contenders in their 30s.
Rossi has won 9 GP's combined in the last 6 years. He won 9 GP's or more per season between 2001-2005 & 2008.

He is still very good, but he isn't close to what he used to be.
fox1nz
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3/31/2016 3:24am
Fearo wrote:
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please...
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please don't tell me MotoGP has less risk than motocross...

I think the major factor is the length and starting age of a racer's career. In motocross, turning pro at 19 is considered late, in cycling a 22 year old pro is considered extremely young.

By the time they are 30, a motocross racer has had a pro career of nearly 15 years. That is a long freaking time in a sport as mentally and physically draining as motocross. I am convinced that if it was more 'normal' to turn pro at age 20 or later we would have a lot more championship contenders in their 30s.
Sorry dude, but motogp has its risks but nothing like dirtbikes, just look at the injury list in AMA atm. The first three rounds of supercross there was three broken femur in the lites, they are serious bones to break. I seen poor Simoncelli loose his life in Sepang, so yes the risks are high but that was a freak accident and thankfully few and far between. But they just don't have any where the same amount of injuries. 95% of there crashes they walk away from because of the development of the safety of the tracks. It's bloody risky doing 200mph for sure. But take a look at the stats. How many times has Rossi been out for a season compared to someone like CR22. Doesn't compare sorry!
fox1nz
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3/31/2016 3:30am
fox1nz wrote:
BT and CR22 would have a different opinion. I would love for them to prove us wrong. And they are in it to win it.
kongols wrote:
Pipe dream.
When Ben comes to Latvia in a month, I`ll be cheering for him to kick major euro ass.
Give him a extra cheer for me thanks bro.
Justin345
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3/31/2016 4:01am
In supercross, I would put their chances at ~1/22. For motocross, I'd estimate their chances to be ~1/40.


But really, it's going to be very tough for a 30+ rider to get a championship in this young mans sport, especially with the training regimen that the young kids are going through. You may see some 30+ guys put in some podiums and sprinkle a few wins here and there (Reed, Stewart if he continues riding), but I doubt you see them win a championship.
just James
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3/31/2016 5:13am
In my opinion, reaction times are the biggest problem as racers age. I think that is the main reason Stewart has crashed so frequently in the last few years. That extra hundredth of a second (or however much it is) can be, and frequently is, the difference between saving it and crashing.
Fearo
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3/31/2016 5:29am
Fearo wrote:
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please...
Personally, I think the whole age thing is extremel overused and bullshit for the most part. Rossi still smokes (nearly) everyone at age 37 and please don't tell me MotoGP has less risk than motocross...

I think the major factor is the length and starting age of a racer's career. In motocross, turning pro at 19 is considered late, in cycling a 22 year old pro is considered extremely young.

By the time they are 30, a motocross racer has had a pro career of nearly 15 years. That is a long freaking time in a sport as mentally and physically draining as motocross. I am convinced that if it was more 'normal' to turn pro at age 20 or later we would have a lot more championship contenders in their 30s.
fox1nz wrote:
Sorry dude, but motogp has its risks but nothing like dirtbikes, just look at the injury list in AMA atm. The first three rounds of supercross...
Sorry dude, but motogp has its risks but nothing like dirtbikes, just look at the injury list in AMA atm. The first three rounds of supercross there was three broken femur in the lites, they are serious bones to break. I seen poor Simoncelli loose his life in Sepang, so yes the risks are high but that was a freak accident and thankfully few and far between. But they just don't have any where the same amount of injuries. 95% of there crashes they walk away from because of the development of the safety of the tracks. It's bloody risky doing 200mph for sure. But take a look at the stats. How many times has Rossi been out for a season compared to someone like CR22. Doesn't compare sorry!
Alright, fair enough. I still stand by my point that the whole risk factor has very little to do with it, though, as explained further in my post.
JSmith
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3/31/2016 5:54am
fox1nz wrote:
Everts won four MX1 titles over 30. But like you say kongols, in this modern Era no one come close. So I wonder why teams sign...
Everts won four MX1 titles over 30. But like you say kongols, in this modern Era no one come close. So I wonder why teams sign over 30's .
Because to the sponsors who pay the bills, it is not all about winning. It is about exposure for their brand/products to increase sales.. Someone like Chad Reed has a tremendous following and is a high profile SX/MX racer. Simply put, he sells product. That is what sponsors care about most.
Krazyk2774
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3/31/2016 9:46am
I think it's the injuries that accumulate over the years and start to weigh heavier and heavier in the back of your mind. Also like others have said, when you have lots of success it it kinda dulls your hunger to win at all costs. The only good thing that comes with age is wisdom! haha
51xc
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3/31/2016 1:15pm
mx/sx demands a very high athletic ability nowadays. not only is the competition better (and more professional in younger ages) trained but also the bikes are faster and the tracks more demanding. i think we won't see any champion above 30 ever again in this sport. (motogp is a whole different ballgame!)
Phillip_Lamb
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3/31/2016 2:45pm
in sx and mx the list is VERY short

John dowd won the 98 West SX title in 98 @ 32.

....and i think thats it.

mike brown won the 125 mx in 01 @ 29.


this is young man sport and most guys by age 30 have hit the deck a bunch of times and are just biologically behind.

biologically the body, slows down around age 27. this is the point where the body slows its production of cells down so recovery, mental acuity, etc start degrading.

Mentally i think guys can sty in the sport for a long time but physically its much harder
NotCore
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3/31/2016 3:27pm
Personally, for me, I put the chances at Zero. For Dungey, it may be a different story. We will see, won't we?
NotCore
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3/31/2016 3:29pm
fox1nz wrote:
Everts won four MX1 titles over 30. But like you say kongols, in this modern Era no one come close. So I wonder why teams sign...
Everts won four MX1 titles over 30. But like you say kongols, in this modern Era no one come close. So I wonder why teams sign over 30's .
JSmith wrote:
Because to the sponsors who pay the bills, it is not all about winning. It is about exposure for their brand/products to increase sales.. Someone like...
Because to the sponsors who pay the bills, it is not all about winning. It is about exposure for their brand/products to increase sales.. Someone like Chad Reed has a tremendous following and is a high profile SX/MX racer. Simply put, he sells product. That is what sponsors care about most.
Man, I'm glad you're on the board. Your posts add value to every thread I've seen.

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