MXoN predictions

I know that Estonia will be the pound for pound (per population) highest place by far.

Those Estonians always impress me. 

Entry list fir races tomorrow 

MXGP qualifying 

1 - Jett Lawrence 
4 - Eli Tomac 
7 - Glenn Coldenhoff 
10 - Ruben Fernandez 
13 - Romain Febvre
16 - Ken Roczen 
19 - Tim Gajser 
22 - Antonio Cairoli 
25 - Jeremy Seewer
28 - Karlis Reisulis 
31 - Magnus Smith
34 - Josh Gilbert
37 - Enzo Lopes
43 - Jess Pettis
46 - Lucas Coenen
49 - Hakon Osterhagen 
52 - Slade Smith
55 - Jorgen-Matthias Talviku 
58 - Pascal Rauchenecker 
61 - Isak Gifting
67 - Martin Barr
70 - Anthony Rodriguez
76 - Jere Haavisto 
79 - Yuki Okura
85 - Matias Pavez
91 - Franklin Noguera
106 - Ingvar Sverrir Einarsson
109 - Joaquin Poli
112 - Sebastian Velez Cardona
115 - Nicolas Rolando
118 - Saad Soulimani
121 - Ofir Casey Tzemach
127 - Yurii Naumchyk
130 - Yeissen Said Rubalcava
133 - Yarod Vargas
136 - Ben Hallgren
139 - Jose Maria Reyes Perla 

MX2 

2 - Kyle Webster 
5 - Justin Cooper 
8 - Kay De Wolf 
11 - Guillem Farres
14 - Mathis Valin 
17 - Simon Laengenfelder 
20 - Jaka Peklaj
23 - Andrea Adamo
26 - Nico Greutmann 
29 - Janis Reisulis
32 - Mikkel Haarup
35 - Dylan Walsh
38 - Bernardo Tiburcio
44 - Sebastien Racine
47 - Sacha Coenen
50 - Pelle Gundersen
53 - Camden Mc Lellan
56 - Joosep Parn
59 - Maximilian Ernecker
62 - Albin Gerhardsson 
68 - Glenn McCormick
71 - Carlos Badiali
77 - Saku Mansikkamäki
80 - Soya Nakajima
86 - Benjamin Garib
92 - Miguel Rojas
107 - Eric Mani Gudmundsson
110 - Felipe Quirno Costa
113 - Ivan Aladama Jr
116 - Alfonso Bratschi
119 - Noam Jayal
122 - Stav Orland
128 - Maksym Rososhchuk
131 - Erick Ismael Vasquez Diaz
134 - Abraham Alfaro
137 - Christopher Blackmer
140 - Gerhard Matamoros Nadal 

OPEN 

3 - Hunter Lawrence 
6 - RJ Hampshire 
9 - Calvin Vlaanderen 
12 - Francisco Garcia 
15 - Maxime Renaux
18 - Maximilian Spies
21 - Jan Pancar 
24 - Andrea Bonacorsi 
27 - Valentin Guillod
30 - Pauls Jonass
33 - Mads Fredsoe
36 - Conrad Mewse 
39 - Fabio Santos
45 - Tanner Ward
48 - Liam Everts
51 - Hakon Fredriksen 
54 - Cameron Anthony Durow
57 - Harri Kullas
60 - Marcel Stauffer
63 - Alvin Ostlund 
69 - Stuard Edmonds
72 - Lorenzo Locurcio 
78 - Kasimir Hindersson 
81 - Jo Shimoda 
87 - Hardy Munoz
93 - Marco Antezana
108 - Eidur Orri Palmarsson
111 - Agustin Poli
114 - Rodny Gonzalez
117 - German Bratschi
120 - Elies Poget
123 - Ben Almagor
129 - Mykola Kubechko
132 - Jorge Israel Rubalcava
135 - Jose Pablo Chaves
138 - Jiraj Wannalak
141 - Fabio Jose Hernandez Zelaya
 

I will be cheering team GB on but we definitely have no shot of a podium. Mewse is very fast but the whole team isn’t strong.

There’s some very strong teams this year as well as fast riders from teams with weak links (I.e Gajser, Shimoda) 

I think Belgium will be up there along with the Netherlands. It wouldn’t surprise me if Germany do well too. 

I’m glad that jcoop got to ride over deegan and I do genuinely hope USA do well. 

I want to see Cairoli battle it out too at 40 years old ha ah 

For those who are interested, here is DV's pick as well as the 2 french journalist (Maxime Martin & Jean-Christophe Vaschetto) :

David : 1-Australia 2-USA 3-France or Belgium 

Maxime : 1-USA 2-France 3-Australia

Jean-Christophe : 1-France 2-Belgium 3-USA

Here is the top 20 individiual performers of the last 3 MXON with the number of points scored  (if equal results, I put MX2 ahead because it is harder to perform, and also OPEN over MXGP because you have 2 straight motos without resting much) 

2022 

3 = Jett Lawrence 
4 = Maxime Renaux
5 = Chase Sexton 
7 = Eli Tomac 
9 = Jeremy Seewer
10 = Dylan Ferrandis 
13 = Justin Cooper (250)
13 = Ruben Fernandez 
13 = Jorge Prado Garcia 
13 = Jago Geerts 
16 = Antonio Cairoli 
18 = Hunter Lawrence (250)
21 = Calvin Vlaanderen 
22 = Mattia Guadagnini 
23 = Marvin Musquin (250)
25 = Jeremy Van Horebeek
25 = Harri Kullas
26 = Liam Everts (250)
27 = Maximilian Nagl 
28 = Simon Laengenfelder (250) 

2023 

4 = Maxime Renaux
5 = Ken Roczen 
6 = Jorge Prado Garcia 
7 = Jett Lawrence 
8 = Romain Febvre 
10 = Tom Vialle (250)
10 = Jeremy Seewer
12 = Tim Gajser 
13 = Liam Everts
15 = Hunter Lawrence (250)
19 = Andrea Bonacorsi 
20 = Kay De Wolf (250)
20 = Alberto Forato 
21 = Valentin Guillod 
22 = Andrea Adamo (250)
23 = Jago Geerts 
23 = Aaron Plessinger 
24 = Calvin Vlaanderen 
25 = Simon Laengenfelder (250)
26 = RJ Hampshire (250) 

2024 

2 = Tim Gajser 
3 = Jett Lawrence 
5 = Eli Tomac 
10 = Jeffrey Herlings 
11 = Kay De Wolf (250)
12 = Hunter Lawrence 
13 = Maxime Renaux
13 = Jeremy Seewer
14 = Ruben Fernandez 
15 = Aaron Plessinger 
16 = Alberto Forato 
18 = Jorge Prado Garcia 
20 = Karlis Reisulis (250)
20 = Ken Roczen 
21 = Simon Laengenfelder (250)
23 = Mikkel Haarup (250)
25 = Conrad Mewse
26 = Cooper Webb (250)
26 = Enzo Lopes
30 = Kyle Webster (250)
 

I always thinking about team Iceland. They miss only 2014, 2015. Remember MXdN 2013 Teutschenthal, they came from Iceland in their vans, no big motorhomes. I think they are one of hardcore motocross riders with big hearts. But not sure if they ever made A final.

I think USA is much closer to Australia than what most people think. Yes Australia have on paper the better 450 riders, but not by miles. And Cooper will be one of the strongest 250 riders during the weekend, he could even get close to a top 5 finish if things really click. Webster will not get inside the top 10 on merit.

Team France Raw training

Similar thoughts...  If it's between AUS and USA, it seems the gap between JCoop and Webster will decide the outcome assuming everyone else performs to expectation.  RJ late in the season was getting great starts, often top 3.  If he does that this weekend, it's going to be huge.  In moto 2 if JCoop gets out with the leaders, that will be a game changer as well.  

But I can't help but think we will see DeWolf and Coenen up there on 250's too.  Hell, Coenen might just holeshot that 2nd moto and if he stays on (hard for him sometimes) maybe only Hunter beats him.  Talk about shaking things up.  

MXoN brings it all.  Yes, sometimes we see what we expect to see, and other times you just can't believe what you are seeing.  BEL, FRA and NED will be in the mix for the win too.  

It's all about starts.  Australia will likely have two riders top 8 every moto.  That is a huge advantage.  The USA guys aren't exactly known for consistently amazing starts.  They will probably need them to challenge for a win.  If they start better than the other teams I think they have the speed to win.  

On Paper with not too much bad luck and crashes, it should be the US Team that will stand on the top step of the podium come Sunday evening. Two of the best 450 riders and Cooper on the 250 will be hard to beat, even for „the Hunter brothers 😉) with their not top notch 250 rider. For second and third place it‘s tight between AUS and Belgium I think. 

For our team Germany, I would be happy and kind of surprised, if they crack the top 5.

So many possible outcomes at this event is really tough to predict. I think a clear path to victory exists with JCoop getting a great start and everyone else on top of their game. I can also see mishap and mayhem putting us in 5th place. I'll be cheering for team USA, but if I were forced to put real money down I'd put it on team Lawrence.

Key to the MXON :

MX2 rider has to race MXGP+MX2 quietly, saving energy for MX2+OPEN, analyzing the track and get the best result in moto 2. 18-3 like Simon Laengenfelder did last year is the perfect result for any 250 racers that come with 2 good 450 team mates.

DO NOT PERFORM IN MOTO 1, save it for moto 2. Way less competition. Whoever understand that has a better chance to win MXON.

Small data point: Since 2006, 223 of the 356 MX2 entries achieved a result in the second race that was similar to or better than their first race, despite the fatigue from the combined MXGP+MX2 event. This represents 62.4% of the total MX2 performances. If riders conserved their energy more during that first race, there's no doubt we would see over 70% of better performances in the MX2+OPEN.

You clearly know nothing about Kyle Webster, sit back down little child.

1. Netherlands 2. USA 3. Belgium

looking back, a lot of doubt around Webster... Glad he was able to showcase what he can do with 2 dead last starts! back to back races! & working through the pack on a 250...

Pretty funny with some predictions.
 

A great ride coming through the pack.

Looking at his lap times and the gaps to the riders in front of him, if he had a good start he may have finished 1 or 2 places better.

I knew he is fast, but was kind of doubting him, to up there with the rest of the top MX2 guys. But wow, he really did prove me wrong - and I like that :-)