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You think you're going to build new manufacturing facilities with higher cost tariffed raw materials and components, to take higher cost tariffed raw materials and components to build things that will be competitive against imports that are subsidized by foreign governments?
How does that math workout?
I work in industrial automation, the vibe on the ground is not great. Talking to customers and vendors I'm not hearing big plans to build out new facilities in the US, I'm hearing a lot of "sorry we are raising our prices" and "we're holding off on large capital expenditures at this time".
The company I work for has seen in increase in tooling prices across the board and we're also seeing tariff surcharges , on what impending tariffs ? On off tariffs? We also haven't been this slow since covid . Because of the tariff situation? Fuck if I know . Just relating what I'm seeing. A lot of uncertainty.
I don’t think you understood a single thing in my post so I guess we just won’t engage in conversation any longer.
The market not liking tariffs and not liking the unknown can both be true.
As I remember it, several days later, Trump postponed the tariffs and the market shot up. Further confounding the future. If not liking the unknown were the major culprit, you would thing the market would have gone down like you said but it did not. It went up.
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Stop with the market talk.... Zoom out on "the Market" It is still in a steady climb, and we do and have needed a pullback "real one"... Market is always thinking 6 months ahead. They have known this information for a long time.
I'm not going to waste my time doing a bunch of cutting and pasting to prove my point. I cant stop people from wish thinking and plugging their ears to reality. It's all out there for anybody that wants to see.
Right, well can you get more specific so I can provide the charts to prove you wrong? I am an active investor/trader and understand the economics, charts, etc quite well. Can you provide me in the right direction or more narrowly to the part where I am wishful thinking and plugging my ears to reality? I myself am "out there" as you say to see and I certainly have a different picture than you do, as well as my accounts.
Google "April 2025 Market Crash" and you will see more than you want too. BTW, I also traded for about 10 years and know how to read and interpret charts. My game was broad market ETF's as a swing trader. Looking for pull backs, abnormal S&P 500 PE ratios, standard and Schiller. But that doesn't mean much. For every guy who sells a stock thinking he has the nuts, another guy buys it thinking you are fucking up. Every swinging dick in the market has his own ideas and they are all over the board except the consensus on why the market crashed the day after the tariff announcements in April. But like you said, the panic selloff in April is gone. When he started exempting cars and electronics and other things later in April the market started settling in on the fact that nobody was going to be able to predict what was going to happen. By mid April the panic was over and market recovered completely by early May. The tariffs are cooked in now. Not saying that a SCOTUS announcement won't move the markets though.
How about we do this, a year from now if things are good, you buy me beer, if things are shit, I buy you a six pack of my favorite beer. Both ways you win, either things are good or you get free beer.
😁
My guess is that the markets will be just fine but I will beer down with you for any goddam reason. I don't get down your way much these days and if push comes to shove, I'm coming down there. I figure our balance of trade has me owing you a bunch.
You owe me nothing brother, I much enjoy the conversations like people used to have before everyone hated anyone that didn't agree with them.
TM
So in other words you literally discredited yourself? That was not a crash in April, uncertainty because of tariffs? Absolutely, and the volatility indicated as such. But sectors were fine... 401k ETF's remained in tact in fact, it was simply a correction. During that time frame is when we all made our money. Fear is a weapon, look how quickly it rebounded. Which means tariffs are priced in already. That isn't a constant fear, which tells you it wasn't a crash. Again, if you knew this already, Why did you take the stance you did when it is inaccurate? Any reason why you no longer trade?
You are mixing your arguments, what do tariffs have to do with illegal workers, are the workers tariffed when they enter the country?
These "deals" you talk about are nothing but frameworks for trade agreements, they are not binding agreements, which take time to pass into law in each country, much like the free-trade agreements the US negotiated with many countries before liberation day.
I traded right up until the 2008 crash. I went to cash about a month before. Not saying I saw it coming. I thought the market was overbought. After the crash I was playing the last 30 minutes of trading. The Dow would move 1000 points in 15 minutes. I played an ultrashort SPY ETF back and forth with SPY. After all was said and done I broke even. Which was probably lucky as I was trading 50 grand at a pop. At the time I was in the residential remodel business and all work came to a screeching halt because banks stopped making loans. I lived off credit cards and what I had in my money market account for a year or so thinking shit would get better and work would come. It didn't and I went broke. Back on my feet now but at 72, speculative trading would be dumber than shorting the market with 15 minutes left in the trading day. Ask me how i know.
That is tough, and I applaud you for pushing forward and finding ground to stand on.
What are you seeing in this morning's jobs report? Traders are liking it because it basically ensures another rate cut.
From an economy perspective it might be an indication of a slowdown although the revised numbers could change that. I don't really see any other major signs of recession.
Like I said before, we need a cool off. We have been running since before Biden and then during Biden and now Trump. Jobs report was a little thin, as far as economics and macro is concerned. Nothing will happen until Powell is out of his chair. We all know he wants to keep rates, Trump wants lower rates for future business/investments and loans. Market is currently selling off a bit, made money on the day got into a few new positions and added as well. This is not a market in panic though when you look at charts. The amount of money pouring in from institutions is unmatched and never been seen before. Thats why I can't help but laugh at everyone with the tariffs this tariffs that. In the end, this will take time but America will be better of because of it. People are impatient and rightfully so when money is on the line.
The only question I really have... Keep buying the dip yes... but how long will tariffs honestly take before consumer good costs come down. You fix the grocery bill, and price of goods, everyone will be pretty pleased.
I’m m not sure I’ll be able to flesh this out properly in a short amount of time but. I think there is a disconnect between Wall Street and the American public. Tariffs hurt are going to hurt individuals and families in their day to day living and that won’t necessarily be reflected on Wall Street. To often we tie the success of the economy to what Wall Street is doing and not what is happening in the micro level. Wall Street is always going to make their money.
Pit Row
Getting parts from overseas is a big issue right now. I just had car parts returned to England by customs. It takes weeks to get things thru customs, if they even get thru. This is going to be a big issue.
Tariffs will do nothing to reduce prices or costs. Quite the opposite, actually.
Correct, they are not the same and they are not correlated. People need decently priced goods that are made well, not poisoning us, the ability to live and thrive a bit. Thats all they generally want, safety, security, and freedom.
Safety is up, the tariffs while costly at the moment will prevail long term. The transition sucks balls. With that said, the money flowing INTO our country to be a part of this new system has never been seen before. So when things kick off (market first, then economically second) don't be upset when the boat has left the dock. AI ties into all of this, as well as you guessed it... digital assets. It is a complex fire ball. Not to mention the national debt, the companies that run the government etc etc. What a shit show we live in
it will be interesting to see what happens because all trumps tariffs are being done by EO, or just how hes feeling that day. If the Republican Party loses the presidency in the next election I think those will immediately go away.
Congress is who has the power to decide tariffs and make it law, not the president.
I’ve heard of some capital investments from countries like Japan but I also read that a lot of the money promised was a loan, not a true investment.
The bragging about all the money coming in from tariffs is such horseshit cause it’s just money out of Americans pockets.
You can't equate money "coming in and its just money out of americans pockets" because truth is the government has been taking every single thing they can from you, when they can from you for a long time. We all get it, a lot of you are really upset about tariffs, but they take time. The dems certainly won't win the presidency because look at them. The record speaks for itself, they got caught LYING to public, they tried to circumvent the process of election, they lied about russia and trump, they have lied lied lied lied lied lied about everything. The economic numbers were a lie...everything was optics. So when someone says something like that If the Dems win back the presidency I kind of say well ....... Look at the party. They have to pay off Kamalas disaster still over a billion dollars. The party has no money, no leadership, no direction, just a bunch of people bitching and complaining every single day about DONALD TRUMP. They haven't learned a damn thing. To "circle" back to your point on tariffs... I will do this fun little example. Take a singular dollar bill... now think of every single way it is taxed on a normal basis within your life. How much of that dollar is left?
Switching the entire system from buying goods abroad and tariffs to manufacturing domestic takes time to see the upside, but the upside is much brighter over time.
Government will always fuck you.. every single time. Get used to it
Everything you said about the dems applies to the republicans as well. They don’t hold any moral high ground. I think in the eyes of moderates(the middle) there’s a lot of folks unhappy with the way things are going. Vital and the moto community will never appear that way because it’s so far right.
if trump doesn’t figure out how to run for a 3rd term the Republican leadership faces a huge problem as well because they’ve tied their entire identity to him. I don’t think Jd Vance or Marco Rubio gets anyone excited.
I disagree. I think people like Vance, I do anyways.
I see Gold and Silver making new highs this week.
Off topic, i heard Trump is rebranding the Department of Defense back to the Department of WAR!
I think trumps base likes him because they have to.
I never look at vital as a small sample test. Truth is Trumps approval ratings are doing well. The individuals on vital, and even my own sister are all crying a similar tune. I find it funny how that works.. almost as if they are told what to complain about. I am not one to argue against Republicans and moral high ground. But you can not equate the likes of Obama, Clinton, Biden to Trump. The difference in legality and dirty tactics is contrast. They are politicians after all so they stay in one category and its called "sleezeballs" in my eyes, but you can't simply blanket the two and say they are the same. They will do whatever, they can to stay on the tit, keep making easy money via bribes, lobbyists etc. Both sides of the aisle have this issue alike, but the rest is very different. Dems are just beat down and broken... its going to take a rebuild but the problem is.... the younger generation doesn't want liberal ways, they want conservative ways, and the illegal immigrants are gone. Times are changing
This is a very sharp edge on the sward edge that we are ALL standing on.
I am seeing in the market trends being reported by the MIC - Motorcycle Industry Council that the motorcycle industry is being slammed and freaking out about the tariffs. You know all the bikes we all ride? ALL MC brands replacement parts are being hit and the dealers are being hit and having to increase prices daily. New bikes? probably going be a jump on those too.
There is a Honda plant not far from me here in SC where all of the Honda ATV's and UTV's are built and due to tariffs they are shutting down production. Yet another unemployment jump.
All the gear companies are being hit.
as for jobs .... with all the working people we are seeing being deported who will be doing those jobs? Do you think there will be a huge wage increase in an effort to get people that would not do the jobs before to start doing them?
Will there be an increase on businesses going bankrupt and closing because they can not get any work done?
We have a new housing development being built next door and I am not hearing the pounding of hammers all day like normal.
we have been hearing about the republican trickle down for years. This trickle down is not money coming in its us being bent over and our money going out.
I just had to redo 2 CD's this week and my financial people are expecting a slight interest reduction but nothing drastic because that would cause an economy higher jump that we can not handle
Seems odd to me but right now the longer term CD's 12-18 months are not paying higher rates than the short term. 6 month is best.
Nobody told me what to complain about. It’s happening in real life to me, an American citizen. I’m paying for it out of my pocket. And straight into the US governments pocket. Thanks Donny I didn’t think I was paying enough taxes anyway
What many folks don't understand is that a $200 pair of running shoes does not cost $200 to manufacture. Probably more like $15 if that. And that's what the tariff is based on. So a 25% tariff adds $3.75? Yes a lot of times the manufacturer will absorb that. But, with energy going down, it might be cheaper to get it to market even paying the tariff. Many companies pay way more for marketing than manufacture. If the terrific is too high, they will manufacture back home and provide jobs for us.
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