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Feel like I've seen this movie before? Different actor playing the supporting role but same story otherwise, can't get off the line, gets so close but can't get by, crashes, does enough to make you believe he might get it done some week but never actually does..... critics judged the last guy to play this role harshly..... wonder if they'll do the same to this guy or if this time they'll realize how good the main character is and will give the other guy credit for being the only one to stay on the same screen with the star?
Take out Jett and Tomac would have gone 3/1/1/8/1/1 so far, which is really good. He was running 2.13 lap times when he crashed while Justin, Aaron and Hunter were in the 2.16. Eli is on, it is just not enough to beat Jett... yet.
Yeah, it will be one of the Burger Boy's fans. Those Webbites are upset their boy is getting smashed to smithereens week in week out after they had the irrational idea he'd be a factor in 450 outdoors.
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I'm not sure if you're trolling or just that slow. Another 6th place and improving every week. If anything I think you're upset since you said he wouldn't be in the top 10. Hes beating guys like Prado rj Malcolm Anderson again guys you said who would smoke him. Not sure if I qualify as a webbite but ill say I dont really care about his outdoors and I dont think he's stressing these results. The big picture is smx points which he has a big lead. He has a good shot to win championship #2 for the year this fall. BTW I love the stat posts.
Seems that every weekend someone enters these race threads under the influence.
Why’s that? Did I imagine Eli keeping Jett under 2 seconds in moto 2? Did I imagine Hunter sitting down and taking a line on the dry dirt to let Jett by?
Jett is a bad dude on a bike. We get it, Jett fans love to cup the balls, but if other fans want the 4x champ to win and make the season interesting; then they’re drunk or delusional. Jetts red carpet crew is starting to become the Deegan mafias equal.
I kinda think he meant I was under the influence. For reference , I quit drinking almost 10yrs ago lol. I dont think either of our comments were that outlandish. You're absolutely right Eli is keeping Jett honest and he's almost 33. He's one of the greatest riders, especially outdoors, ever. Jett is also just 21 and still improving. Jett isn't my favorite rider. That doesn't change the fact the dude just coming off ACL surgery, with a month of prep for the season, has won 5 out of 6 motos
I was referring to the breakfast cake boy.
Anyway, it was an excellent day of racing that I enjoyed very much. Looking forward to the next one.
Hell yeah bro 🤙
Key Highlights
Untouchable: In 450 Moto 1, four different riders tried to stop Jett from taking the win. None of them could. Stat-wise, Jett was in a league of his own. Fastest average lap, fastest median lap, and the fastest lap of the race. He never ranked worse than sixth on any lap.
Quick and Consistent: Tomac had the pace to beat Jett in Moto 2. He was faster on median lap time, set the fastest lap of the race, and looked dialed. But a late tip-over potentially cost him the win, and Jett walked away with another overall. Still, both riders backed up their elite form with the highest consistency scores of the 450 class.
450 Analysis
Jett Lawrence might actually be unbeatable in Pro Motocross. He’s now 5 for 6 on moto wins this season and a perfect 3 for 3 on overalls. He’s handled everything the field has thrown at him. But his 1-1 overall at Thunder Valley might’ve been the best ride of his career.
In Moto 1, he climbed from 4th to 1st, lost the lead to Aaron Plessinger late, then snatched it back again. In Moto 2, he went bar-to-bar with Eli Tomac again, and beat him straight up. Tomac even forced an out of character error.
We learned a lot at Thunder Valley but it wasn’t just about Jett. Let’s get into it.
Track Breakdown:
The track map above shows which riders had the fastest average time in each 450 moto sector. (MX Sports didn’t release official sectors this weekend, so I mapped them based on live timing and track layout.)
Here’s what’s undeniable. Jett gets better when the pressure’s on. Look at Moto 2.
The top five in the class are pretty much locked in: Jett, Plessinger, Tomac, Hunter, and Justin Cooper. That’s been the top 5 at all three rounds. But when you zoom in on who’s separating themselves from the rest, it’s secretly becoming just Jett and Tomac who are consistently showing up in the sector maps with Jett grabs at least two every time. Cooper and Plessinger have shown up quite a bit this season, but both have struggled putting together two good motos on the same day.
450 Moto 1:
450 Moto 2:
And here’s the wild part: Thunder Valley wasn’t hot like Hangtown. It wasn’t hard-packed like Pala. After a week of on-and-off rain, it was deep, rutted, and brutal. Thunder Valley might be the roughest track we’ll see all year. These are the kind of conditions where we expect Tomac to shine. But Jett? He did not flinch. Not bad for someone still coming off an ACL tear. Of course, Eli’s just returning from injury himself, so credit to both for dropping the hammer in Moto 2.
The rest of the field though? Not so lucky. LITPro consistency scores were some of the lowest we’ve seen outside of full-on mud races. Sector 5 in particular stood out. By the numbers, it was the roughest, most inconsistent part of the track. Watching it back, it didn’t look worse than the rest, but it sits at the lowest point of the valley. Maybe drainage carved in deeper ruts than anywhere else.
Lap Time Breakdown:
The histogram above shows how lap times played out across both motos. Moto 1 was faster, but only in the opening laps. That’s because the SMX crew did a bit of cleanup before racing started, and with the 450s going first, the track was at its best. But once the ruts came back, the times increased dramatically.
That explains why consistency scores were so low in Moto 1. The top guys started with 2:08s and dropped into the 2:13s by lap 5. Still, Jett Lawrence had more fast laps than anyone—more than double in Moto 1, and almost double in Moto 2.
Moto 1 Fast Laps (15 Timed Laps)
J. Lawrence: 8
H. Lawrence: 3
Plessinger: 2
Tomac: 2
Class Average Consistency: 63.5
Class Median Consistency: 73.9
Moto 2 Fast Laps (15 Timed Laps)
J. Lawrence: 7
Tomac: 4
Cooper: 2
Hampshire: 2
Class Average Consistency: 65.0
Class Median Consistency: 73.5
450 Moto 1 Analysis
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
In 450 Moto 1, four different riders tried to stop Jett from taking the win. None of them could. Stat-wise, Jett was in a league of his own. Fastest average lap, fastest median lap, and the fastest lap of the race. He never ranked worse than sixth on any lap.
Let’s also give some love to R.J. Hampshire. Quietly, he’s putting together a strong 450 debut season. His best lap in Moto 1 was the third-fastest overall, and he’s consistently landing in the top 5 on speed. Keep an eye on him.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
As mentioned earlier, the early sprint pace in Moto 1 dragged down consistency scores. No one in the top 5 cracked an 80, though all still beat my score and they were racing a gnarly track. But two guys did hit the 90s: John Short and Benny Bloss. They were the only riders in Moto 1 to get there.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Plessinger had the theoretical best lap of the race. When he passed Jett late, it looked like he might pull it off. But theory is just theory. Jett responded immediately and shut it down.
450 Moto 2 Analysis
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
In Moto 1, the top three were separated by 11 seconds. In Moto 2, the gap doubled, but Tomac still finished 11 seconds behind Jett in both motos. In Moto 2, Eli was faster. His median lap time was a quarter second quicker, and he had the fastest lap of the race by nearly 0.4 seconds.
But none of that matters when you tip over late. Eli had the pace to win, he just didn’t get the finish.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
When push comes to shove, there is no better guys in American Motocross than Jett and Tomac, and they backed it up with the two best consistency scores of Moto 2, and the two best scores of the day. Also joining the 90 club once again? John Short and Benny Bloss.
Lap 99 Analysis:
If Tomac could have that late-race mistake back, he might’ve taken the moto. His Lap 99 time was the fastest on track, and his theoretical best time (based on ideal sector splits) was nearly a full second quicker than Jett.
Really appreciate this analysis. Thanks
Good stuff, fun read… Jett is just that much better than everyone else.
Interested to see RJ at Red Bud, his best track.
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