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Perham, MN
US
where did all the inflation come from??
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Are you asking because you don't know what caused it?
So the M1 is now down to nearly the exact level as when Biden took office?
I didnt say anything about biden... just that its not that much of a mystery. Our government is destroying our purchasing power.
What caused this inflation is not a mystery. And it was government. It was caused almost entirely from government shut downs during covid. A small amount due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the beginnings of wage inflation due to a tight labor market. As more of the boomers retire, there are many many fewer workers to replace them. Expect that situation to get worse for the next 10 or 15 years.
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I disagree that the demographics are inflationary, I would argue that they’re deflationary in the long run. What’s the first thing most retired people do when they’re on a fixed source of income? They generally reduce their spending, and often downsize their homes. That’s a deflationary force.
Now, with that said, the government will continue to stimulate the economy recklessly in order to artificially inflate the sinking ship, but whether that will balance out the deflationary force from demographics is anyone’s guess.
You keep printing, and throwing around, more paper than you have the gold to back.
Dollar devalues.
Spending power decreases.
Prices rise.
The Biden inflation reduction act sent inflation into overdrive…but the prior give outs during Covid pointed us in that direction.
We all remember the big debate over the last stimulus check Trump sent and Dems claiming it should have been bigger—Trump decided not to make it bigger because it would over-heat the economy. Biden campaigned on giving out more money…which he did..and over heated the economy. Duh..
Then of course, the Feds under Biden were too slow to react to adjusting the interest rates, by the time they did react it was too late.
Now the poor are being crushed by this regressive tax (inflation) and the rich got even richer (assets significantly increased in value)…Yada yada..
Anytime bags of money are created it flows to the top. The divide increase is accelerating.
Small supply and big demand. Then government printing in overdrive so the the government could spend massive amounts more, creating more demand
And national debt from years ago is peanuts now.
It's hard to say if QE had a substantial effect on inflation. QE from 2007 to 2020 was historical but had negligible if any effect on inflation. In theory, it should have but it didn't. QE went into turbo mode in early 2020 and peaked in mid 2022 and is now back to where it was when Biden took office in 2021. It was such a huge jump compared to the real estate crisis that it may very well have contributed but not as much as the supply chain impact that government shut downs created. We have also had record deficits which theoretically are also inflationary but didn't seem to have an effect for the last 2 decades. If I were a betting man I would put my money on government shut downs as the major culprit.
Answer: amazingly bad polices that were implemented by a failed administration starting in January 2021.
Yep QE since Gfc didnt really do much outside of Real Estate. Corp Greed outside of industry affected by shutdowns was a large reason.
Once all prices go up, the supply disrupted Companies arent dropping theirs back.
Hows the share market going even without cheap money available?
I don't collect and analyze economic data myself so anything I have to say about it comes from sources like the Fed website, the Pete Peterson foundation and other economic think tanks that do collect and analyze the data. So far, I have not seen any of these sources mention Biden administration policies as a cause. Except for the ongoing deficit spending that started in the 80's and is mostly on auto pilot which is not under the control of any administration. I would be interested in seeing a source that suggests that in fact his policies are the main cause. And no. His bullshit inflation reduction act will have no effect.
All your money is going here
https://x.com/amuse/status/1815017219807449557/video/1
Not to be a troll here but, is that the same FED that told us inflation is transitory?
Asking for a friend. 😁
Regulations...
Didn't it start with the money printing for the Covid Stimulus checks? That wasn't during the Biden Regime.
Pit Row
No, Inflation was 1.4% in 2020. 2021 Jumped to 7%
Listen to smart guys who arent on pmsnbc, or are not on tv at all. Rregulation is ffucking us over.
That’s because there is a lag effect to stimulus, stimulating today doesn’t create inflation tomorrow, it creates inflation months or even years from now. I’d put the blame pie at about 50/50 on this one.
Trump is half responsible for pushing stimulus on an already hot economy prior to Covid, then during Covid allowing ungodly amounts of stimulus in the form of money printing, checks, and PPP loans to people who didn’t need them.
Biden is half responsible for not pulling the plug quick enough. He should have seen the lag effect comming and pushed Powell to cut stimulus and raise rates immediately, but instead he let it ride and the problem only got worse and worse.
Either way, it goes to show that neither party is fiscally responsible and neither has the balls to actually do what would need to be done to actually fix the deficit and curb inflation, because they know it would be political suicide to do so.
Never mind.
I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state:
"This mismatch is caused by a mix of predictable drivers, including demographic trends and high healthcare costs combined with an inadequate revenue base for the spending policies that we have enacted, all of which is exacerbated by compounding debt and interest costs. Adding to the problem, in 2017 and 2018, lawmakers passed fiscally irresponsible tax and spending measures that made our nation’s fiscal outlook considerably worse – adding more than $2 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years."
Of course if the tax rate goes down, you'll have a lower percentage relative to GDP. (As see in the following chart that I didn't copy and paste) But tax revenue actually went up. Me thinks there's an agenda?
TM
Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction.
Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the tax rate reduction increased the revenue or was even revenue neutral. Economic growth over the entire economy can easily overpower those rate reductions.The question is: would revenue have been even higher without the rate reductions? The bottom line however, is the effect on the deficit. PPF contends that the rate reductions of 2017/2018 will result in increased debt. That is their opinion. Any prediction of the future is an opinion.
Now Manny doesn't trust the info coming from the fed and you are bringing in the same suspicion for the PPF. I have listed 2 of my sources for determining the cause of the spike in inflation in 2001-2002. There are many more. They have the data and the computer models.
I know it's a lot more fun to blame it on Biden and for the most part, I tend to stay out of those threads. Thus the "never mind" which was a consolidation of a text wall that I gave up on.
What are your sources for Biden being the main cause?
1. Minimum wage has skyrocketed in the last few years. That alone has increased the cost of basic goods. Meanwhile, middle class jobs are stagnant while we figure out how to recover from COVID mandates.
2. Supply chain was badly damaged from COVID and all of our goods were coming from China.
3. Illegal Immigration has taken jobs and taxes away from Americans.
The root source of inflation is the government.
-Devaluing our dollar with deficit spending, and endlessly printing dollars for bail outs, hand outs, stimulus, debt forgiveness etc.
-endless regulations on businesses (in my industry, regulations have increased operating costs by nearly 65% since about 2009/10...that gets passed on tho the consumer)
-mandated minimum wages
-forced covid shut downs
-Fed keeping rates too low for to long
-For that matter, going away from the gold standard...
It goes on and on and on...both parties are guilty of this...some are just more guilty in various aspects of it...but government is the root cause of this inflation.
The government, are you sure...? That's odd, because almost every government politician you hear of went into his/her elected office with little money and left office with an immense inflation of wealth.
Its got nothing to do with record profits/ceo salaries does it🤦♂️
You can't possibly call yourself a liberal (LOL) and be for deficit and debt reduction, those are commonsense values!
My beliefs come from teachings from Milton Friedman. And yes I have read many things that claim he's wrong that I don't buy into.
Too busy spitting and making turds for a longer explanation LOL
Yes
That’s the answer to all of it.
You’re an amazing analyst.
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