ICE future fuel availability, ICE vs electric, US power grid issues, etc,

R VanKamp77
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R VanKamp77 10/20/2022 10:23am
10/20/2022 10:23am
Wait til you guys find out that crude oil only takes a few years to be formed, we'll really be partying then.
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#434
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#434 10/20/2022 10:35am
10/20/2022 10:35am
RaceFace58 wrote:
In 50 years the push will be on to some other technology that has already begun to phase out battery power. in 100 years something will...
In 50 years the push will be on to some other technology that has already begun to phase out battery power. in 100 years something will be phasing that one out. Think about where gas powered vehicles were 100 years ago.
Rosso391 wrote:
Just saw a video of Carbon Engineering. Pulls CO2 from the atmosphere and turns it into fuel. Zero carbon emissions fuel. And you don't even have...
Just saw a video of Carbon Engineering. Pulls CO2 from the atmosphere and turns it into fuel. Zero carbon emissions fuel. And you don't even have to change the engines we have now. its just like gasoline. Bill Gates backs it. Its a Trillion dollar market if the government wants to jump on board.
MotoTribology wrote:
It wouldn't be zero carbon emissions according to their media/website. In theory, they could produce carbon "neutral" fuel or use the collected CO2 to make 'green...
It wouldn't be zero carbon emissions according to their media/website. In theory, they could produce carbon "neutral" fuel or use the collected CO2 to make 'green hydrogen' in some unspecified way.
I had a few beers with Siemens Engineer who build up a wind powered eFuels Plant in Patagonia in a cooperation with Porsche.
Interesting project, but the efficiency of the process makes eFuels very expensive. It only makes sense to use such Fuel in application where you absolutely need the energy density / specific energy like in airplanes.. or if you want to run your old Porsche emission free.

BTW: you can’t make green hydrogen from CO2. There’s no H in CO2. They use water and electrolysis.
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OrangeJuice158 10/20/2022 10:47am
10/20/2022 10:47am
#434 wrote:
I had a few beers with Siemens Engineer who build up a wind powered eFuels Plant in Patagonia in a cooperation with Porsche. Interesting project, but...
I had a few beers with Siemens Engineer who build up a wind powered eFuels Plant in Patagonia in a cooperation with Porsche.
Interesting project, but the efficiency of the process makes eFuels very expensive. It only makes sense to use such Fuel in application where you absolutely need the energy density / specific energy like in airplanes.. or if you want to run your old Porsche emission free.

BTW: you can’t make green hydrogen from CO2. There’s no H in CO2. They use water and electrolysis.
Seems like the magic of the market will arrive there eventually anyway. Cars and light vehicles will be electric because it’s cheaper, and trucks, planes, and ships, etc will continue to run fuel, at least until the next battery breakthrough.
Moto Nomad
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Moto Nomad 10/20/2022 11:25am
10/20/2022 11:25am Edited Date/Time 10/20/2022 11:51am
Rosso391 wrote:
I do believe you are very wrong about the EV's being a "benefit" to the grid. California has brown outs constantly because of all the EV...
I do believe you are very wrong about the EV's being a "benefit" to the grid. California has brown outs constantly because of all the EV charging. People can't even run their A/C when its 90 degrees out. So clearly they strain the grid too much for people to use the grid on a "normal" EV charging level. Then you add in EV motorcycle charging along with your EV truck/car...not gonna happen. People will be running separate diesel powered generators for those chargers, completely negating the point of EVs "green" classification. Even though EV's are tremendously NOT GREEN. We use more diesel in the entire manufacturing process, especially the mining, than a diesel vehicle would produce in its lifetime. The entire EV fad is completely BS. Its not good for the environment. Make hydrogen cars. GM has an engine that the US government wont let them release to the public, and that was back in 2009. EV's in motocross just wont happen, plain and simple. Its not going to be a PRO class. Motocross is all about the sound, feel, and shifting. Its just not MOTO if its EV.
RMT wrote:
The only problem in your scenario is that none of that happened. First, it was 100+ degrees, second, nobody turned off their AC, third the power...
The only problem in your scenario is that none of that happened. First, it was 100+ degrees, second, nobody turned off their AC, third the power never got cut.

The state made an announcement that we are nearing capacity and maybe it would be nice to try to cut a little electricity usage to help. Like normal humans everywhere, nobody listened but what they did do was maybe hold off on doing laundry until after 9pm or maybe eat out that night instead of cooking at home with electric appliances. The usage dropped and nothing happened.

You see, nowadays you have to shoot high to hit a lower target so if they only said cut a little electricity tonight, nobody would have done it. Humans!

As far as EV's being the answer, who knows. Remember when cigarettes were not bad for you and air bags and seat belts were more dangerous than not having them? Time will tell so let's not get all wound up taking sides.
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
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RichieW13
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RichieW13 10/20/2022 11:32am
10/20/2022 11:32am
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
"What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances."

Is that bad? What are the odd circumstances?

According to the NW Hydro website:

"Historically, the Northwest has exported its surplus power to California during certain times of the year, with the revenues benefiting Northwest customers. "

https://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/energy-topics/hydropower/
OrangeJuice158 10/20/2022 11:44am
10/20/2022 11:44am
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
I am interested in your take, so the data from those days on caiso still shows pretty good margin during the hours (midnight to 5am) most folks charge. Looking at it still seems we are power limited not energy limited. Do you think greater demand during the off peak times will incentivize utilities into expanding their generation capability?
Moto Nomad
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Moto Nomad 10/20/2022 11:59am
10/20/2022 11:59am Edited Date/Time 10/20/2022 12:01pm
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
RichieW13 wrote:
"What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances." Is that bad? What are the odd...
"What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances."

Is that bad? What are the odd circumstances?

According to the NW Hydro website:

"Historically, the Northwest has exported its surplus power to California during certain times of the year, with the revenues benefiting Northwest customers. "

https://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/energy-topics/hydropower/
NW was exporting about 8 GW to CA on Sept. 6, which was the tightest day. The NW had an above-average water year and Columbia Basin runoff didn’t start until early June, which left more water for exports. Temps were also moderate in the NW- if it was a region-wide heatwave like August 2020 (when blackouts actually did happen in CA) that power would have stayed in the NW. Also, about a week before, a court-ordered water spill on the Columbia River and Snake River (for fish passage) ended, which freed up about 800 MW when CA really needed it. I was told this set of conditions occurs only once per 6-8 years.
It was Newsom’s emergency notice that led to the power cuts that saved CA. But all kinds of back-up natural gas gen was running, ports went to ship power etc.
Newsom pumped billions into back-up natural gas gen that was quickly stood up to maintain enough juice to keep the lights on.
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Moto Nomad
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Moto Nomad 10/20/2022 12:09pm
10/20/2022 12:09pm
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
OrangeJuice158 wrote:
I am interested in your take, so the data from those days on caiso still shows pretty good margin during the hours (midnight to 5am) most...
I am interested in your take, so the data from those days on caiso still shows pretty good margin during the hours (midnight to 5am) most folks charge. Looking at it still seems we are power limited not energy limited. Do you think greater demand during the off peak times will incentivize utilities into expanding their generation capability?
When the August 2020 blackouts happened by CAISO it was actually to avoid reliability violations from the national reliability organization (NERC). So they can call for rolling outages just because the margin is too thin.
Utilities can only build what the state regulators approve, which will not be natural gas, which the state is retiring as fast as possible. But they haven't been able to shut down the coastal once-through-cooling gas plants (like Redondo Beach) because they are still needed.
And Newsom swiftly reversed the decision to retire the Diablo Canyon nuke (which required legislation), which was due to go away in a couple of years and would have made things even sketchier.
CA has bet the farm on energy storage, the idea being they will store excess solar for use during off-peak. It's really a grand experiment. Moss Landing, the big storage facility, has has a lot of issues.
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OrangeJuice158 10/20/2022 12:12pm
10/20/2022 12:12pm
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
OrangeJuice158 wrote:
I am interested in your take, so the data from those days on caiso still shows pretty good margin during the hours (midnight to 5am) most...
I am interested in your take, so the data from those days on caiso still shows pretty good margin during the hours (midnight to 5am) most folks charge. Looking at it still seems we are power limited not energy limited. Do you think greater demand during the off peak times will incentivize utilities into expanding their generation capability?
Moto Nomad wrote:
When the August 2020 blackouts happened by CAISO it was actually to avoid reliability violations from the national reliability organization (NERC). So they can call for...
When the August 2020 blackouts happened by CAISO it was actually to avoid reliability violations from the national reliability organization (NERC). So they can call for rolling outages just because the margin is too thin.
Utilities can only build what the state regulators approve, which will not be natural gas, which the state is retiring as fast as possible. But they haven't been able to shut down the coastal once-through-cooling gas plants (like Redondo Beach) because they are still needed.
And Newsom swiftly reversed the decision to retire the Diablo Canyon nuke (which required legislation), which was due to go away in a couple of years and would have made things even sketchier.
CA has bet the farm on energy storage, the idea being they will store excess solar for use during off-peak. It's really a grand experiment. Moss Landing, the big storage facility, has has a lot of issues.
Interesting thanks for the reply.
1911
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1911 10/21/2022 6:08pm
10/21/2022 6:08pm
The Dumbgeon is the spot this thread should have started. 👍
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Rosso391
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Rosso391 11/1/2022 5:37am
11/1/2022 5:37am
Moto Nomad wrote:
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was...
California narrowly avoided rolling blackouts due to conservation requests, but they made it by the skin of their teeth. What bailed out CA in September was NW hydro, which was only available through a set of odd circumstances.
Newsom had to throw billions of dollars into backup gen just to keep the lights on and save political face.
I write about energy in CA and it's pretty much all I think about during business hours five days a week. CA's grid is on the very edge, and they haven't even incorporated EV demand into future load forecasts.
Those last 2 sentences allude people that think EV is going to be "good for the grid". No one uses common sense and facts anymore.
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onebadtamale
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onebadtamale 11/15/2022 9:11am
11/15/2022 9:11am
#434 wrote:
- fuel will always be available, but will become more and more expensive - the only great thing about ICEs is the high energy density of...
- fuel will always be available, but will become more and more expensive
- the only great thing about ICEs is the high energy density of their fuel. If range isn’t a concern, the electric motor outperforms it in every way.
- overall EVs will be a benefit to the energy grid because they will add a lot of storage capability to it. And the strain on the grid from charging EVs is smaller than one think. Check this: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-electric-vehicles-wont-break-the-grid/
My two cents.
Rosso391 wrote:
I do believe you are very wrong about the EV's being a "benefit" to the grid. California has brown outs constantly because of all the EV...
I do believe you are very wrong about the EV's being a "benefit" to the grid. California has brown outs constantly because of all the EV charging. People can't even run their A/C when its 90 degrees out. So clearly they strain the grid too much for people to use the grid on a "normal" EV charging level. Then you add in EV motorcycle charging along with your EV truck/car...not gonna happen. People will be running separate diesel powered generators for those chargers, completely negating the point of EVs "green" classification. Even though EV's are tremendously NOT GREEN. We use more diesel in the entire manufacturing process, especially the mining, than a diesel vehicle would produce in its lifetime. The entire EV fad is completely BS. Its not good for the environment. Make hydrogen cars. GM has an engine that the US government wont let them release to the public, and that was back in 2009. EV's in motocross just wont happen, plain and simple. Its not going to be a PRO class. Motocross is all about the sound, feel, and shifting. Its just not MOTO if its EV.
Everyone down votes the hater lol you definitely a keyboard racer

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