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The calc for a gain is: high - low / low. The S&P loss 54% of it's value between Oct 07 and March 09'. Since then it's gained 30% off the lows. 880 - 680 / 680. But it's still off 41% from it's high of 1500. It's all in what point they are trying to make. I could say that it has only gotten back 13% of what it lost but you could say it's up 30%. Lotta snakeoil in that business. I saw Whitney also.
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You certainly did not predict the Dow would rise since March - actually you predicted Dow 5000 right here on this board when the Dow hit 6500 in March. You also left open the possibility of Dow 3500 if it broke below 5000.
In late March as the market climbed and almost hit 8000 in the face of your 5000 call, I bumped the thread up for a laugh.
Then the Dow fell a few hundred points and you posted another thread about the market crashing to some other level, like 6000.
I bumped the original thread a second time and I talked to you about the hazards of using past performance (charts) to predict markets.
I searched for that thread and can't find it, but I'm sure I'm not the only one that remembers how ridiculous it looked having that completely misdirected call on page one with your later call after the fact....
Definition of the Dow Jones:
Dow Jones Average indicators used to measure and report value changes in representative stock groupings on the New York stock exchange.
Whether it be individual or groupings wouldn't it play out to be knowledgeable in the Stock market to recognize the trends? I make no claim to being a financial expert as you have said previously with respect to the clients you represent.
Please correct me where I am wrong for the sake of the thread. This isn't heckling, just simple clarifications.
As Racer92 said, we have a lot to work through. One major problem is what is waiting on the other side of the rainbow? We have nothing the world wants. Our economic juggernaut was propelled by being a leader in having what others wanted. We don't make anything these days other than defense weapons that are at the forefront. We cannot compete on low cost manufacturing. Most of the last 20 years have been based on internal booms, meaning we pushed forward on technology and built houses--items for consumption.
Obama is right about one thing: if we don't find an area in which we lead the world, we are headed for mediocrity. He refers to energy, and that's probably our best hope. But, it will be short lived boom (again). If and when new technology is unveiled, it will be distributed throughout the world quickly enough.
For me, I don't foresee any significant growth in the market. Some contraction is virtually a must. A crash or rapid decline to 2,3,4000? Could happen. The fact that it hasn't happened already makes it less likely though.
Yeah, we're gonna be big.
Im not so sure on that. How long did Enron doctor the books before it was known they were broke? How long before Bernard Madoff got found out? Allen Stanford?
There are a lot of clever 'suits' out there trying to keep the natives from getting restless.
I look at the movement of capital and try to predict where it might go to get returns rather than trying to predict prices. Capital always seeks a profit, and there's always somewhere to make a profit, so where might that be? If you predict where capital will go, you will find a market that's rising (prices).
Right now "the consumer is dead" is the conventional wisdom. But that's not the end of the story. The consumer is repositioning to a more sustainable financial state by paying down debt and increasing savings. I didn't think that was possible, but here we are. Are there soup kitchens? Not really, not yet anyway. I think that takes some fuel away from the "Depression" scenario in the US. Can't say it's the same in other countries though.
The consumer (retail investors) are out of stocks right now, not because they are a great judge of what direction the market might go, but because they have lost money in their IRA's and 401ks and are scared. What that means to me is that there is a lot of money on the sidelines because of "fear". Fear isn't a great predictor of markets.
Retail investors wont jump back into the market until after a sustained rally. They wont touch stocks until then, and then they will put the froth on whatever new rally forms.
Big Money has been similarly whacked, and Big Money (money managers) are managing somewhat smaller portfolios because of the flight to lower risk investments, so their ability to move markets is somewhat lessened now. Another Big Money problem is death of some prominent hedge funds. Shorting the market at these levels is a risky game IMO.
Big International Money is in more trouble than domestic US money IMO. These investors will look to the stability (relatively) of the US market, which will bring capital to US markets eventually, the current recession notwithstanding.
I think the case for sideways/higher is easier to make than a collapsing market, if for no other reason than there aren't many other places for capital to go ....
The thoughts/ questions you raise for me are about what has happened already we just don't know it.
Cummulatively a tremendous amount of wealth (capital) vaporized...paper profits disappeared. But, not totally. I am afraid there are still paper losses and wealth vaporization to go. And this will be the scare that drops the market to another low level. It depends on how prepared we are when the other shoe falls if it will drop excessively or not.
Of course, I'm probably wrong. I certainly don't understand the current level of the market.
Consumers are scared
Players are wounded
Big players are laying low
But as they say (or something similar), "wealth doesn't go away, it just changes hands"
Right now, IMO, everyone is sitting on the sidelines for one reason or another.
The market is going to fluctuate and have good days and bad, like always.
It's going to react to things as it always has, but it's just going to do it at a lower level, like it is now.
It's not going to jump to 10, 12 or 14,000 overnight.
It's going to go sideways for a long time and it'll be a long gentle climb back to the old heights.
It is also my opinion anyone playing chicken little or candy and rainbows is full of shit.
But, I'm a dumbass, what do I know?
Pit Row
My take on it, but its just a observation.
We could see the retirement finish line ahead and my guess is a lot of Baby Boomers lost a lot of ouir nesteggs in this.
But these people need to accumulate wealth and put themselves in a better financial postiion within the next 10-20 years more than ever. My guess is a lot of their wealth is in Treasuries and other "safe" investments right now. But the income from these investments can't produce the growth the baby boomers need to make up for what they've lost.
I think the bb's will have to return to the market via equities at some point - they're a lot of the sideline money at the moment, and their capital needs to work harder than ever now.
But after today it has to retrace another 185 pts. .......
But we're never going back to 14,000 because we never should have been there to start with. We got there by reckless consumer puchasing that was stimulated by reckless credit practices. We didn't get there by making better things and being creative and productive. Unemployment is still bad and it's likely to be a while before it gets a lot better, but we were at almost 11% back in 1982 and we survived that. In fact, we not only survived it, we went into a strong growth period afterward.
We're not going to go from bust to boom again, but we should be happy about that. We shouldn't want that. We should be happy with a business base that creates and produces stuff - and that's where we're going.
Something to think about here when looking at unemployment numbers. We have alot of people out of work. We have kids coming out of College and Highschool looking for work. We have record numbers of illegals looking for work. We have H1-B and like 7 other types of imported workers trying to keep their new American jobs AND...........this time we have alot of older workers who were thinking of retireing in the next few years but since they all took it up the ass with their 401ks many of them now want to stay in the work force. And Im thinking that in past recessions we werent exporting jobs at the pace we are today. Guess we'll see eh?
Say , do we need air to breathe?
2 ) People still believe that the United States is the land of opportunity and the place to be.
3 ) greed is more powerful than fear.
4 ) nobody likes a gloom and doomer.....motod00d
2) If you have a college degree in a field in demand perhaps. Since the US has such a high drop out rate (30%) and has to import so many foreigners to fill the vacant positions in the tech heavy jobs it's hardly the land of opportunity for many Americans today. Unskilled labor jobs pay shit and very few even offer benefits anymore. If your idea of opportunity is a low paying minimum wage part-time job then yeah. There's opportunity to be had.
3) If that were true Wall Street wouldn't need trillion dollar bailout packages. They are truly rich with greed.
4) Reality sucks.
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