Is Harley, Polaris and KTM killing the Big 4?

blueoval177 11/29/2011 6:19am
11/29/2011 6:19am Edited Date/Time 11/29/2011 6:24am
As someone who was in the powersports industry for quite some time, here's my take.

The growing SxS market has been driven by older people, males, usually 40+ with incomes generally 75,000+. One company said 80% of buyers were earning over 100,000+, will vary state to state. The Harley market and cruiser market in general, again older wealthier clients. Snowmobiles are 75% purchased by 40+, higher income.

All of these products have steadily increased in price, by quite a bit. In some cases, being 15,000 minimum. Coming from a snowy area, in the late 90's 5,000-7,000 bought you a good, new snowmobile. Now it's 10,000 minimum. Completely excluding the younger demographic in most cases. Look at what's happened to personal watercraft; big, heavy, expensive couches compared to what started it in the first place. The market is almost gone. Is a shame.

Since MX is mainly young people compared to other product demographics, it's been hit hard by raised prices. 5,000 vs 8,000 is a big deal, yes inflation has happened but the prices are getting to high for the average kid. Not to mention a used mx bike is NOT the same as a used street bike or ATV.
mxtech1
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mxtech1 11/29/2011 6:24am
11/29/2011 6:24am
It's called an economic recession. Most consumer products that are luxury based are down, not just motorcycles and the big 4. you're getting all worked up for nothing. Do this comparison again when the economy returns to a more stabil state or when the US jobless rate returns to below 5%. The middle to lower class has been hit the hardest from the recession, but this class of people make up the largest % of buyers who are involved in powersports. It's not the fault of the big 4 or the specialty companies. The big 4 are putting out products now that are better then ever. KTM is on the rise but of course we all have seen that coming for years now. Polaris is slowly creating better and more reliable products every year and they are slowly catching up to the big 4, but I still believe they are inferior products by a couple more years technology. Harley....well what's new? nothing.....decades old technology put into cookie cutter bikes with a price tag that raises every year.
rocrac
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rocrac 11/29/2011 6:38am
11/29/2011 6:38am
I'm a die hard motorcyclist especially dirt. I've bought and owned 4 or 5 dozen new bikes over the years and currently own 2 Suzuki's, 1 Yamaha, I Kaw and 1 Harley. Do you want to know which dealer and manufacture offers the absolute best customer service, marketing campaigns , charity outings, rides, and best overall customer experience? Harley hands down and I hate to admit this since I have been anti Harley my whole life.

BlueOval summed it up pretty well the younger demographic simply cannot afford and maintain $8,000 dirt bikes.
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TooOldToPlay 11/29/2011 6:58am
11/29/2011 6:58am
Polaris is exceptionally well run/organized. They recently purchased the Indian Motorcycles company to further broaden their appeal and it should bode well for them. Their Victory street bikes are kind of the NEW American motorcycle, and with the tradition/heritage of Indian they can cover multiple market segments. Plus they have former AMA 500cc Motocross champion Mark Blackwell heading up their motorcycle division...so you can't help but want them to do well!

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motoplook
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motoplook 11/29/2011 7:17am
11/29/2011 7:17am
Harley is up y-o-y but still well below their high mark of '07, '08, in the US. But this is not their priority right now, they are looking overseas at fast growing markets for them like Brazil and India, both countries where they have set up assembly chains for the local markets.

KTM is probably growing in off-road but has blatantly failed in the street market where the shakers and movers are Ducati and Triumph who have been kicking ass for a couple years, growing their market shares as the 4 Japanese OEM have been loosing sales by the double-digits. 2011 looks better for some like Honda though.

Again, this is a direct result of the recession, less access to financing for lower-income buyer who can't buy a Gixxer 600 or an R6 as easy as they could in '07 or early '08; while European high-end manufacturers are attracting the higher-income, generally over 45, buyers who invest in a bike they'll keep for a while.
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Tiki 11/29/2011 7:33am
11/29/2011 7:33am
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides?
Im sure the military was good for a few. Hunters, off road people, maintenance but still 50,000? That is a LOT of side by sides. Like a Mall Parking Lot full of them. On Black Friday, giving away free stuff full. WOW.

I know Polaris is killing it but had no idea.
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reded 11/29/2011 7:46am
11/29/2011 7:46am Edited Date/Time 11/29/2011 7:49am
Tiki wrote:
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides...
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides?
Im sure the military was good for a few. Hunters, off road people, maintenance but still 50,000? That is a LOT of side by sides. Like a Mall Parking Lot full of them. On Black Friday, giving away free stuff full. WOW.

I know Polaris is killing it but had no idea.
If you really wanna know take a trip to the dunes anywhere in America. Those F'n things are everywhere yet they completely suck balls in the sand. They sound like a busted vacuum cleaner and barely get enough speed to get the wheels off the ground on most mid-sized dunes. Always broke down and a total pain in the ass to clean up after a couple hrs in the mud. They will one day be Polaris' downfall!
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dcg141 11/29/2011 8:08am
11/29/2011 8:08am Edited Date/Time 11/29/2011 8:10am
Say what you will about Harley but they sold nearly twice as many motorcycles as thier nearest competitor in 09. I should have used another title for this thread as none of the big 4 as corperations are in any financial difficulty but thier powersports divisions are not doing well. The common theme here is that the companies that are gaining market share are the ones that have everything invested in the powersports business. It has to work for them or they go under. Thats why you see Harley doing all the events and rides they do and KTM carries bikes around the country for demo rides and feeds everyone at the national enduros..ect. If Suzuki decides they have to close the powersports division they still survive as a company.
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TeamGreen 11/29/2011 9:05am
11/29/2011 9:05am
dcg141 wrote:
Say what you will about Harley but they sold nearly twice as many motorcycles as thier nearest competitor in 09. I should have used another title...
Say what you will about Harley but they sold nearly twice as many motorcycles as thier nearest competitor in 09. I should have used another title for this thread as none of the big 4 as corperations are in any financial difficulty but thier powersports divisions are not doing well. The common theme here is that the companies that are gaining market share are the ones that have everything invested in the powersports business. It has to work for them or they go under. Thats why you see Harley doing all the events and rides they do and KTM carries bikes around the country for demo rides and feeds everyone at the national enduros..ect. If Suzuki decides they have to close the powersports division they still survive as a company.
If Suzuki were to close the 2 wheel division, they have NO ONE to blame but themselves. When they could have rolled up their sleeves and gotten to work...they ran and hid in the accountants office.

Me? I think they still make some of the BEST bikes. Period: GSXRs to RMZs...EXCELLENT equipment.

I say bring back the Rising Sun logo...fill up the truck and go SELL SOME BIKES (Go racing and).

Win on Sunday & Sell on Monday.
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peelout 11/29/2011 9:11am
11/29/2011 9:11am Edited Date/Time 11/29/2011 9:16am
dcg141 wrote:
Yamaha sold 13000 Rhino's in 2009. Polaris is dominating that business.
my neighbor just went and dropped $18k on a four seater Polaris RZR...

thing is pretty rad... but wow. and i thought a new dirt bike was expensive

edit... BlueOval hit the nail on the head
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Racer92 11/29/2011 12:41pm
11/29/2011 12:41pm
Im in a rural area, and 9 out of 10 ATVs and UTVs around here are Polaris, used on farms & ranches.
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Falcon 11/29/2011 1:07pm
11/29/2011 1:07pm
DCG, coming from a former big-4 employee, I can tell you they are already cutting staff and subsidizing the motorsports divisions from other parts of their businesses.
I was a parts rep in the southwest and got terminated along with scores of others, thanks to budget cuts.

At the time, (less than 2 years ago,) Polaris was kicking our ass in ATVs and UTVs. KTM was too, but they were not a major source of concern since their entire lineup fits into 1 1/2 categories (MX/offroad and ATV.)

Harley is also not a huge concern for Japanese brands, since they feel that brand has priced themselves out of competition. People who want a Harley won't but anything else. People who just want a good cruiser look at Star, Victory, etc.

The time of absolute domination by the big 4 is over, but I wouldn't say they are getting "killed" by Harley, KTM or Polaris. There will simply be a more even playing field from here forward.
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dcg141 11/29/2011 4:03pm
11/29/2011 4:03pm Edited Date/Time 11/29/2011 6:12pm
Falcon wrote:
DCG, coming from a former big-4 employee, I can tell you they are already cutting staff and subsidizing the motorsports divisions from other parts of their...
DCG, coming from a former big-4 employee, I can tell you they are already cutting staff and subsidizing the motorsports divisions from other parts of their businesses.
I was a parts rep in the southwest and got terminated along with scores of others, thanks to budget cuts.

At the time, (less than 2 years ago,) Polaris was kicking our ass in ATVs and UTVs. KTM was too, but they were not a major source of concern since their entire lineup fits into 1 1/2 categories (MX/offroad and ATV.)

Harley is also not a huge concern for Japanese brands, since they feel that brand has priced themselves out of competition. People who want a Harley won't but anything else. People who just want a good cruiser look at Star, Victory, etc.

The time of absolute domination by the big 4 is over, but I wouldn't say they are getting "killed" by Harley, KTM or Polaris. There will simply be a more even playing field from here forward.
Sorry to hear about your layoff. Its never good to see an industry go through such hard times. Erveryone has had to lay off too, even KTM had to trim staff from pre 07. Getting killed was kind of over the top but I have been involved in the business long enough to remember when Honda owned it. Over 50% of the market at one time during the 80's. If you told me or anyone else back then that Honda dealers would be taking on Polaris to keep thier doors open now you would have been laughed at. In many rural areas Honda dealers have become ATV dealers that carried motorcycles becuase they had to. The falloff in that business has been really difficult. I think you are right and the big 4 will have to make cuts to meet wherever the bottom lies and that will make it more of an even playing field for smaller mfgs to compete.
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davis224 11/29/2011 5:49pm
11/29/2011 5:49pm
Tiki wrote:
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides...
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides?
Im sure the military was good for a few. Hunters, off road people, maintenance but still 50,000? That is a LOT of side by sides. Like a Mall Parking Lot full of them. On Black Friday, giving away free stuff full. WOW.

I know Polaris is killing it but had no idea.
I work at a dealer that carries all jap brands, plus BRP products, Polaris, and Arctic Cat.We supply the military with a lot of stuff, and I think they mainly use Teryxs. Polaris has made HUGE strides in reliability and performance in the past few years. Their side by sides are head and shoulders above the rest (save for maybe CanAm). Our ratio of selling a ranger vs a mule or rhino is probably about 40:1. And as far as ATVs go, we barely sell any full size Hondas or Suzukis, quite a few Yamaha Grizzlys and Kawi Brute Forces, some Polaris, and a crapload of CanAms.
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Hando 11/29/2011 6:19pm
11/29/2011 6:19pm
Wonder if the future will be all Euro MX bikes??

KTM, TM, Husky, Gas-Gas...it'd be like the 70's again or some shit!!

Anyone got any figures on the streetbike market??

New liter bikes are close to15K a pop new...who can afford that??
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redalert144 11/29/2011 6:47pm
11/29/2011 6:47pm
Tiki wrote:
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides...
50000 to 800? If that is in fact true and not related to the earthquake that is impressive. Where do you put 50,000 side by sides?
Im sure the military was good for a few. Hunters, off road people, maintenance but still 50,000? That is a LOT of side by sides. Like a Mall Parking Lot full of them. On Black Friday, giving away free stuff full. WOW.

I know Polaris is killing it but had no idea.
Those things are all over here in Yuma, the old folks don't even bother with golf carts anymore, straight up SxS. They cruise their trailer parks, go out to the desert, supermarkets whatever
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Roscoe33 11/29/2011 7:11pm
11/29/2011 7:11pm
The Polaris Razor is fast and fits down our trails same as a ATV,
Honda doesn't think a UTV need to fit trails.

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JustMX
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JustMX 11/29/2011 7:33pm
11/29/2011 7:33pm
Harley pushed their dealers to upgrade their locations near interstates to make them rest stops for Harley riders.

That worked great until they stopped selling units for a couple of years and couldn't cover the increased overhead.

Isn't part of Suzuki's situation because they took a heavy hit when GM filed Bankruptcy? Like a couple Billion dollars that they had to eat?

The Big 4 need to wake up and produce some entry level two strokes.

Hell, there is no R&D overhead, and they really should utilize their dealer networks.

KTM is gaining market share but is gaining market share in what sure looks to be a dying niche really something to get that excite about?

Somebody better start putting some kind of fairly cheap, reliable, and fun machines out there before the Chinese flood the market with their junk.

If the choices are an $8k big 4 (+ktm) or a $3k chinese off road bike our sport is screwed.
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nickm 11/30/2011 7:19am
11/30/2011 7:19am
blueoval177 wrote:
As someone who was in the powersports industry for quite some time, here's my take. The growing SxS market has been driven by older people, males...
As someone who was in the powersports industry for quite some time, here's my take.

The growing SxS market has been driven by older people, males, usually 40+ with incomes generally 75,000+. One company said 80% of buyers were earning over 100,000+, will vary state to state. The Harley market and cruiser market in general, again older wealthier clients. Snowmobiles are 75% purchased by 40+, higher income.

All of these products have steadily increased in price, by quite a bit. In some cases, being 15,000 minimum. Coming from a snowy area, in the late 90's 5,000-7,000 bought you a good, new snowmobile. Now it's 10,000 minimum. Completely excluding the younger demographic in most cases. Look at what's happened to personal watercraft; big, heavy, expensive couches compared to what started it in the first place. The market is almost gone. Is a shame.

Since MX is mainly young people compared to other product demographics, it's been hit hard by raised prices. 5,000 vs 8,000 is a big deal, yes inflation has happened but the prices are getting to high for the average kid. Not to mention a used mx bike is NOT the same as a used street bike or ATV.
This is right on the money...also helps explain KTMs growth as their demographic on this continent is typically high income earners >30 years old. They know their target client so hey, you want a 300cc 2 stroke with electric start, here ya go..they know their client base has no issues dropping $8-$10K on it.

I just hit 40, and I can't think of a single riding buddy who is looking at anything but vintage bikes from the 80s, or a new euro bike.
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bwh998 11/30/2011 7:58am
11/30/2011 7:58am
nickm wrote:
This is right on the money...also helps explain KTMs growth as their demographic on this continent is typically high income earners >30 years old. They know...
This is right on the money...also helps explain KTMs growth as their demographic on this continent is typically high income earners >30 years old. They know their target client so hey, you want a 300cc 2 stroke with electric start, here ya go..they know their client base has no issues dropping $8-$10K on it.

I just hit 40, and I can't think of a single riding buddy who is looking at anything but vintage bikes from the 80s, or a new euro bike.
i am one of those 30+ year olds who is only interested in 80's/90's restos or new euro bikes.

and all of my buddies are pretty much the same way, i don't know why. there is nothing interesting coming from japan in the mx category right now, but i can drool for hours looking at the new fantics, wish they would bring those suckers here.
JustMX
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JustMX 11/30/2011 8:14am
11/30/2011 8:14am
If Honda put the '83 line up off CR 125, 250, and 480 back into production and sold them for $3k, wow......

Old guys could afford evo racing and young kids could afford to race reliable and fun bikes against similar machines...

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