Is Harley, Polaris and KTM killing the Big 4?

dcg141
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dcg141
Edited Date/Time 1/27/2012 1:36pm
Industry figures would lead you believe that they are making life difficult for sure. I was looking at 2009 sales figures from the Powersports Business Market data book and it shows a definate downward trend for the Big 4. The bell cow for the japanese for over 3 decades now has been the ATV business. Those sales are off over 60% from a high in 2007. Alot of that business has switched over to the UTV or side by sides. Now Honda still leads ATV sales by a few precetage points over Polaris but that is a dying market. Polaris is killing everyone in side by sides. Everyone else combined is not selling what they are. To give you an idea of how dominat they are in 2009 Polaris sold 50,000 side by sides. Honda sold 800. The motorcycle business is also hurting and some companies are gaining market share there vs the japanese. Harley is now 33% of the US market and Honda has fallen below 20%. and KTM is now close to 5% of the total market and is at 28% of the offroad competition market. That does include MX sales. The big loser is Suzuki. They are now at 9% of the total market and falling. KTM may actually catch them selling only dirt bikes. The reason they moved thier race teams over to Yosh was they have outstipped the ablity to pay for thier US infrastucture. One industry insider told me that the others are in danger of having to cut US staff and close facilites or have to subsidise the powersports from the other parts of the corperation. These are 09 figures also and I can tell you 10 and 11 figures are not going to be any better for the Big 4.
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MtnBoy
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MtnBoy 11/28/2011 4:08pm
11/28/2011 4:08pm
Interesting.

I didn't realize the Polaris side by side was so popular. How are the sales numbers for the Yamaha Rhino? It's a better machine for what I would need it for than the Polaris so I'm just curious how many people feel the same way.

The rise KTM has made in a relatively short time is amazing to me.
dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 4:11pm
11/28/2011 4:11pm Edited Date/Time 11/28/2011 4:12pm
Yamaha sold 13000 Rhino's in 2009. Polaris is dominating that business.
Hando
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Hando 11/28/2011 4:11pm
11/28/2011 4:11pm
It would suck but I could see Suzuki dropping their mx bikes in the US. They cut their amateur program pretty fast when things fell out..
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MR. X 11/28/2011 4:25pm
11/28/2011 4:25pm
Does polaris still own that 24 or 12 percent of ktm or whatever that percentage was

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blueoval177 11/28/2011 4:35pm
11/28/2011 4:35pm Edited Date/Time 11/28/2011 4:37pm
The KTM/Polaris alliance barfed out. They moved their separate ways a few years ago, was to be an alliance for dealer bases for KTM and shared tech. but it didn't go well at a corporate level. Polaris has since bought an electric car company from Chrysler/Fiat and Indian motorcycles. Bombardier has an alliance of sorts with Aprillia and there was talk of a Can-Am off road bike lineup but since the recession hit it got stalled. They already had structured a bike division. Polaris is still running a 2~3 :1 debt to asset ratio but is making big progress and large share gains with the side by sides and Victory cycles. KTM has done very well, will expect more success in the next few years.

If the big 4 did not have a large corporate structure I doubt they would/will exist much longer. I.E. Kawi motorsport represents somewhere around .1% of KHI.
ns503
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ns503 11/28/2011 4:43pm
11/28/2011 4:43pm
I'd like to see CURRENT figures and where the Kawi Teryx slots in - there are more of those (& Rhinos) around here than anything.
dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 4:52pm
11/28/2011 4:52pm
ns503 wrote:
I'd like to see CURRENT figures and where the Kawi Teryx slots in - there are more of those (& Rhinos) around here than anything.
Kawaski is 2nd in the side by side market but the Teryx has been a slow mover. Most of Kawaski's sales in the side by side is still the Mule. They have a 4 passenger Teryx coming so that may help sales. But the Polaris Razor is easilly outselling the Teryx. Now the one Japanese mfg to actually gain market share in the motorcycle business has been Kawasaki. In fact they are getting very close to overtaking Yamaha in motorcycle sales.
TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 11/28/2011 5:04pm
11/28/2011 5:04pm
By 2012 Y/E Kawi should be the strongest in growth on the 2 wheel side...literally gaining back share. New models, aggressive customer fi programs, etc.

On Side x Sides: I'm thinking that Polaris is gonna kick ass with their new "Smaller" engined Rzr 570 and the "Mini-Class 1 Car" 900. The Canadaians are doin' pretty good and so is Artic Cat.

KTM is on a Roll. AN unstopable roll.

Harley is making better bikes; however, brands like Victory and Triumph aren't F'n around. They are kicking Harley's ass on "Value".
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JOHN CHOATE 11/28/2011 5:06pm
11/28/2011 5:06pm
Here in the Carolina's, there have been a number of Harley dealerships that closed the doors.
dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 5:11pm
11/28/2011 5:11pm
JOHN CHOATE wrote:
Here in the Carolina's, there have been a number of Harley dealerships that closed the doors.
The industry as a whole is still on the downside and more dealers of every brand will probably close thier doors unfortunatly .
dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 5:16pm
11/28/2011 5:16pm Edited Date/Time 11/28/2011 5:17pm
TeamGreen wrote:
By 2012 Y/E Kawi should be the strongest in growth on the 2 wheel side...literally gaining back share. New models, aggressive customer fi programs, etc. On...
By 2012 Y/E Kawi should be the strongest in growth on the 2 wheel side...literally gaining back share. New models, aggressive customer fi programs, etc.

On Side x Sides: I'm thinking that Polaris is gonna kick ass with their new "Smaller" engined Rzr 570 and the "Mini-Class 1 Car" 900. The Canadaians are doin' pretty good and so is Artic Cat.

KTM is on a Roll. AN unstopable roll.

Harley is making better bikes; however, brands like Victory and Triumph aren't F'n around. They are kicking Harley's ass on "Value".
You are right and we have not even touched on the gains being made by Victory, BMW and Triumph. They are smaller but still taking away business from the bigger brands. Look for the figures from 10 and 11 to show further market erosion from Honda especially. Kawasaki is the one bright spot for the big 4. Good new product in MX bikes and sport bikes.
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freeh 11/28/2011 5:18pm
11/28/2011 5:18pm
blueoval177 wrote:
The KTM/Polaris alliance barfed out. They moved their separate ways a few years ago, was to be an alliance for dealer bases for KTM and shared...
The KTM/Polaris alliance barfed out. They moved their separate ways a few years ago, was to be an alliance for dealer bases for KTM and shared tech. but it didn't go well at a corporate level. Polaris has since bought an electric car company from Chrysler/Fiat and Indian motorcycles. Bombardier has an alliance of sorts with Aprillia and there was talk of a Can-Am off road bike lineup but since the recession hit it got stalled. They already had structured a bike division. Polaris is still running a 2~3 :1 debt to asset ratio but is making big progress and large share gains with the side by sides and Victory cycles. KTM has done very well, will expect more success in the next few years.

If the big 4 did not have a large corporate structure I doubt they would/will exist much longer. I.E. Kawi motorsport represents somewhere around .1% of KHI.
Regarding the Can-Am bike thing, Buell was going to use the Can-Am DS450 quad engine its first off-road bike, until HD pulled the plug on the program. I never heard about Can-Am having an off road bike of any sort. Maybe that happened after the Buell thing went away, which happened in late 2007, right after the MXoN. There was a plan to have a full line-up of Buell/HD off-road bikes at one point in time though. I remember seeing renderings of concepts for dealerships offering 50cc to 650cc models. Moto, dirt track, motard, fucking everything. The timing was not right. 5 years earlier would have been perfect. A year later and it would have ended up the same way. Fuck HD.
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oshow 11/28/2011 5:20pm
11/28/2011 5:20pm
When I sold my Harley , I could have bought three 450's with the money. That high end market has dried up significantly
unknownmxr 11/28/2011 5:22pm
11/28/2011 5:22pm
More like Xbox and ps3 killing the bike market (and everything else). I had one of my bikes up for sale. Some kid (17 or 18) kept asking me how often I changed the oil. I said it was a two stroke. This didn't even register with him. Off-road events are mostly vets with only a half dozen kids riding.
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JB 19 11/28/2011 5:26pm
11/28/2011 5:26pm
What do they say? ....... "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets." KTM went for the jugular when everyone else was down.......great business practice.
TeamGreen
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TeamGreen 11/28/2011 5:27pm
11/28/2011 5:27pm
HD really makes out on the fools that fall for their branding; however, they've got a Wall Street Johnny in there and he's gonna suffer a brutal "Death by Catalog" due to his inability to change the product in favor of a less "After-the-Fact" catalog customer.

The good changes at Harley were in-place before their new "Stock-Price" oriented mgmt.

The brands mentioned in here by the rather observant folks ALL come off the show-room in a condition that would cost you $3-15K worth of catalog-crap at Harley. Especially Triumph.

Besides, Fuck Harley. I still haven't forgiven them for closing Buell.

The "newer" boomers that're retiring now are more likely to get a Concours or a BMW 6 cylinder.

Btw, ANYONE wanna tell me jus' how "American" their HD POS is?

Let's start with those Showa forks.
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JOHN CHOATE 11/28/2011 5:31pm
11/28/2011 5:31pm
JOHN CHOATE wrote:
Here in the Carolina's, there have been a number of Harley dealerships that closed the doors.
dcg141 wrote:
The industry as a whole is still on the downside and more dealers of every brand will probably close thier doors unfortunatly .
For sure. I work in the m/c industry.
mxnick
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mxnick 11/28/2011 6:01pm
11/28/2011 6:01pm
A few points:

1. The overall off road market has shrunk by over 50% (closer to 61-62% once this year is over) since the high water mark in 2006 / 2007. Think of it this way - has your house lost 50% of its value? That is what has happened to the industry, and for companies like Honda, Suzuki etc. Some are much than others (Suzuki).

2. I was under the impression there was no industry wide reporting on UTV's? The Polaris numbers are available in their annual report, but as far as the rest, are we sure the numbers are accurate?

3. The "boutique brands" which have a very tight focus (think HD,Victory (Polaris), KTM, Ducati, BMW, etc) have been able to take away market share (market share, which is in a declining market) from the "big 4" Japanese as the remaining buyers who are still in the market are now more sophisticated and therefore looking for a more refined and higher quality product.

4. The japenese do not invest in new R&D since sales are getting hammered, and their product range starts going stale. Meanwhile a company like KTM is switching into overdrive.....(Dungey anyone?) or Ducati with their new Superbike.....

That is basically what is happening. The market has matured and declined. The hogs are getting slaughtered. The pigs are getting fatter.

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dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 6:13pm
11/28/2011 6:13pm
mxnick wrote:
A few points: 1. The overall off road market has shrunk by over 50% (closer to 61-62% once this year is over) since the high water...
A few points:

1. The overall off road market has shrunk by over 50% (closer to 61-62% once this year is over) since the high water mark in 2006 / 2007. Think of it this way - has your house lost 50% of its value? That is what has happened to the industry, and for companies like Honda, Suzuki etc. Some are much than others (Suzuki).

2. I was under the impression there was no industry wide reporting on UTV's? The Polaris numbers are available in their annual report, but as far as the rest, are we sure the numbers are accurate?

3. The "boutique brands" which have a very tight focus (think HD,Victory (Polaris), KTM, Ducati, BMW, etc) have been able to take away market share (market share, which is in a declining market) from the "big 4" Japanese as the remaining buyers who are still in the market are now more sophisticated and therefore looking for a more refined and higher quality product.

4. The japenese do not invest in new R&D since sales are getting hammered, and their product range starts going stale. Meanwhile a company like KTM is switching into overdrive.....(Dungey anyone?) or Ducati with their new Superbike.....

That is basically what is happening. The market has matured and declined. The hogs are getting slaughtered. The pigs are getting fatter.
Got those figures from powesportsbusiness.com. From the 2010 market data book.
mx216
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mx216 11/28/2011 6:15pm
11/28/2011 6:15pm
JOHN CHOATE wrote:
Here in the Carolina's, there have been a number of Harley dealerships that closed the doors.
dcg141 wrote:
The industry as a whole is still on the downside and more dealers of every brand will probably close thier doors unfortunatly .
JOHN CHOATE wrote:
For sure. I work in the m/c industry.
I worked at one of the larger dealers in the Portland Metro area. For the 2010 year we won a trip to Anaheim for selling the most YZ's in the area. Then in April 2011 we were so far down on business the owners closed the doors. It is crazy how slow the industry as a whole( MCs, Atvs, SXS) became around here. The only thing that ddint seem to fall off as much was the snowmobiles.
gotwings
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gotwings 11/28/2011 6:46pm
11/28/2011 6:46pm
No.
nickm
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nickm 11/28/2011 7:00pm
11/28/2011 7:00pm
HD is on a huge downslide...all the 50 year olds that have been overspending on harleys and related custom bikes are old and broke. almost ALL the custom bike builders are closed, HD is in the shitter with an old product lineup selling to a dying customer base (literally)...what's happening to them is what happened to Cadillac over the past 10-15 years.

Can-Am built bikes in the 70s and stopped building them in the early 80s...they have all the resources they need (ie: engines, engineers etc) to get into the 2 wheeled market at any time...they've got good product in every powersport segment they are in (ski-doo, sea-doo, can-am atvs, can-am spyder).
MX Culture
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MX Culture 11/28/2011 7:10pm
11/28/2011 7:10pm Edited Date/Time 11/28/2011 8:20pm
Im a rep in the upper midwest.
Polaris Rangers are VERY popular up here, Rhino's and Teryx are almost non existent.
Kawi ninja 250's sell very well too.
KTM's are poppping up everywhere at the moto tracks.
I just don't see Harley doing well. They've all but moved out of Milwaukee and all their buildings are for sale.
Those Powersports Business reports are just from the dealers that actually reply/answer -numbers are skewed.
DD
dcg141
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dcg141 11/28/2011 7:29pm
11/28/2011 7:29pm Edited Date/Time 11/28/2011 7:31pm
Every Honda dealer around her has taken on Polaris. They make thier living on ATV sales and they have tanked so bad its been a real struggle.
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freeh 11/28/2011 7:38pm
11/28/2011 7:38pm
TeamGreen wrote:
HD really makes out on the fools that fall for their branding; however, they've got a Wall Street Johnny in there and he's gonna suffer a...
HD really makes out on the fools that fall for their branding; however, they've got a Wall Street Johnny in there and he's gonna suffer a brutal "Death by Catalog" due to his inability to change the product in favor of a less "After-the-Fact" catalog customer.

The good changes at Harley were in-place before their new "Stock-Price" oriented mgmt.

The brands mentioned in here by the rather observant folks ALL come off the show-room in a condition that would cost you $3-15K worth of catalog-crap at Harley. Especially Triumph.

Besides, Fuck Harley. I still haven't forgiven them for closing Buell.

The "newer" boomers that're retiring now are more likely to get a Concours or a BMW 6 cylinder.

Btw, ANYONE wanna tell me jus' how "American" their HD POS is?

Let's start with those Showa forks.
Showa forks and shocks are made in Ohio with approximately 80-90% domestic content. I worked there for three years before going to Buell. Your point is still very accurate though. Many of Harley's parts are not made in the US. Buell's had much foreign content as well. Mostly Taiwan.
crashnburn11 11/28/2011 7:52pm
11/28/2011 7:52pm
I don't know much on the business side, but I drove one of those Polaris RZR's in the dunes 6 months ago maybe, and that thing was a ball. Way more fun than a quad, and definitely than those way to expensive tricked out rhinos. This thing cut good, didn't feel like it was going to flip, and had great power. And there was bitch handles for the passenger while he nuts up!
wardy
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wardy 11/28/2011 8:53pm
11/28/2011 8:53pm
wow KTM sounds like they are pretty progressive. Wonder they are doing that the others are not...................one word.


Choice.
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jmar 11/28/2011 9:01pm
11/28/2011 9:01pm
dcg141 wrote:
Industry figures would lead you believe that they are making life difficult for sure. I was looking at 2009 sales figures from the Powersports Business Market...
Industry figures would lead you believe that they are making life difficult for sure. I was looking at 2009 sales figures from the Powersports Business Market data book and it shows a definate downward trend for the Big 4. The bell cow for the japanese for over 3 decades now has been the ATV business. Those sales are off over 60% from a high in 2007. Alot of that business has switched over to the UTV or side by sides. Now Honda still leads ATV sales by a few precetage points over Polaris but that is a dying market. Polaris is killing everyone in side by sides. Everyone else combined is not selling what they are. To give you an idea of how dominat they are in 2009 Polaris sold 50,000 side by sides. Honda sold 800. The motorcycle business is also hurting and some companies are gaining market share there vs the japanese. Harley is now 33% of the US market and Honda has fallen below 20%. and KTM is now close to 5% of the total market and is at 28% of the offroad competition market. That does include MX sales. The big loser is Suzuki. They are now at 9% of the total market and falling. KTM may actually catch them selling only dirt bikes. The reason they moved thier race teams over to Yosh was they have outstipped the ablity to pay for thier US infrastucture. One industry insider told me that the others are in danger of having to cut US staff and close facilites or have to subsidise the powersports from the other parts of the corperation. These are 09 figures also and I can tell you 10 and 11 figures are not going to be any better for the Big 4.
But where you are mistaken is, you are looking at statistics as if ATVs are the main source of profit for the big four.

Nothing could be further from the truth.
mx757
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mx757 11/28/2011 9:03pm
11/28/2011 9:03pm
Makes me glad my grandparents bought me 100 shares of polaris stock when I was 4 years old. Now with the dividend reinvestments and everything, I am sitting here with about $60 grand sitting there for me to put a large down payment on a house...
mxnick
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mxnick 11/28/2011 9:03pm
11/28/2011 9:03pm
nickm wrote:
HD is on a huge downslide...all the 50 year olds that have been overspending on harleys and related custom bikes are old and broke. almost ALL...
HD is on a huge downslide...all the 50 year olds that have been overspending on harleys and related custom bikes are old and broke. almost ALL the custom bike builders are closed, HD is in the shitter with an old product lineup selling to a dying customer base (literally)...what's happening to them is what happened to Cadillac over the past 10-15 years.

Can-Am built bikes in the 70s and stopped building them in the early 80s...they have all the resources they need (ie: engines, engineers etc) to get into the 2 wheeled market at any time...they've got good product in every powersport segment they are in (ski-doo, sea-doo, can-am atvs, can-am spyder).
Actually, Harley is up this year. Up about 3-4%, but they are up, as is the market. Granted they are still way off the high from 2007, but so is everyone!

The custom guys though, they are indeed way the heck off, that is for sure.

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