I recently added all the lap data from 2003-present in my database and I've used it to look into the margin of victory numbers. The racing has been trending closer and closer at the checkered flag. From 2003-2014, the first twelve years of the data, the average margin of victory in the Premier class was 6.952 seconds. In the previous twelve years through 2026, it has dropped to an average of 5.353. I did not include triple crown main events in these since they are much shorter.
I'm interested in what you guys have to think. Is it different riding styles, track conditions, track design?
I dive into the numbers side in detail in an article on my site with tables and graphs.
Link to my site: Margin of Victory Analysis
I'll leave you with the riders who have more than two non-Triple Crown main event wins since 2003 and their average margin of victory:
| FullName | Average Margin of Victory | Eligible Main Wins | Largest Winning Margin | Smallest Winning Margin |
| Kevin Windham | 13.874 | 12 | 66.941 | 2.057 |
| Marvin Musquin | 8.764 | 9 | 29.439 | 0.326 |
| Ricky Carmichael | 8.623 | 21 | 33.26 | 0.595 |
| Chad Reed | 8.528 | 43 | 34.002 | 0.918 |
| Chase Sexton | 7.763 | 15 | 18.266 | 2.096 |
| Ryan Villopoto | 6.346 | 41 | 21.653 | 0.955 |
| Hunter Lawrence | 6.173 | 4 | 12.314 | 2.391 |
| Eli Tomac | 6.068 | 49 | 20.721 | 0.707 |
| Ken Roczen | 5.995 | 26 | 19.687 | 0.739 |
| Justin Barcia | 5.401 | 6 | 14.742 | 1.015 |
| James Stewart | 5.398 | 50 | 17.316 | 0.591 |
| Jett Lawrence | 4.864 | 8 | 9.323 | 1.802 |
| Ryan Dungey | 3.948 | 34 | 11.927 | 0.903 |
| Davi Millsaps | 3.339 | 5 | 6.051 | 2.267 |
| Jason Anderson | 2.778 | 12 | 4.243 | 0.839 |
| Cooper Webb | 2.488 | 25 | 8.455 | 0.028 |
| Trey Canard | 1.491 | 5 | 3.31 | 0.186 |
Love it! What's K-Dub's median margin of victory? I think that +66.9s probably skews his average a bit; to a certain extent, even Marv's +29s victory significantly affects his mean margin with only 9 wins.
Yeah winning A1 by over a minute definitely bumps it up but he still has three of the top ten largest margins of victory. Benefits of winning in the mud.
That 66 second margin sounds like the largest gap by any SX winner
Most the time the bigger margin of victory would of been even bigger had the winner not cruised it in.
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Cooper Webb, with 25 wins at an average of 2.4 sec is no surprise, the king of the late race moves.
He only had to win by 0.001s, anything more was wasted energy.
Lol Cooper has probably led the least amount of laps in his championship seasons than anyone. He’s a finisher tho!
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