The Weekend Breakdown | 2026 St. Louis 3

St. Louis' Dome at America's Center existed as a time machine of sorts, as Monster Energy AMA Supercross fans were transported to a post-Anaheim 1 setting where the top three 450SX athletes were separated by five points. The twelfth round was a crucial point in the brawl for off-road's prominent crown. Lewis Phillips' recapitulation tackles the impact that it's had.

SUZUKI SHOWCASE STARTS

"Ken [Roczen] was like, 'Sick! I wish I had this before.'" It's not uncommon to hear this positivity radiating from the Pipes Motorsports Group's stars, but this declaration from Colt Nichols cements a rather critical puzzle piece. Starts have been a pressure point for Roczen in the past, but a pre-Detroit development has worked wonders.

"We are stoked," Nichols said. "This is the best clutch set-up that we have had – it is no longer an issue after two years. You can actually feel the clutch now, so it works the way it's supposed to. The engagement point starts a lot quicker, the window is bigger and it feels like butter on your hands. It almost felt notchy before, whereas now it progresses like a normal clutch. It's dramatically better."

Roczen started in seventh (a mean across the three-race format) and twelfth in Indiana and Alabama, then second and third since the introduction of this 'new' clutch. A marked improvement, yes, although it's important to state that he started first at the two rounds prior to Indianapolis. It's that inconsistency that wore him down, however, and the current read on the situation is that's been eliminated.

Its introduction is as timely as Roczen's recent run of form.

This is just the fourth time in his career that he has won consecutive 450SX rounds and the first time since early 2021. Moreover, he lapped more than a second faster than his title rivals on average (his average time was 57.933 versus Hunter Lawrence's 58.933). The momentum is with '94' – maintain and sustain are his priorities now. It's appropriate, perhaps, as that's been Suzuki's business model for a decade now.

It's incredible that the outdated RM-Z450 has risen atop 450SX's hierarchy, but that could be its undoing. Roczen must avoid misfortune in the form of an untimely stall and the kicking that follows. Working around the quirks of his steed – one that he is overwhelmingly happy with – remains imperative. 

Verdict: A fairytale that becomes more and more magical…

TOMAC'S TROUBLING TIME

Eli Tomac is fine, per the man himself. Do his actions coordinate with the sentiment? Sadly, no. St. Louis was a minor improvement on Detroit but not one that quells any doubts. Tomac was typically coy in his statement from KTM and, consequently, social media will continue to be ablaze with theories and questions. The cloak of secrecy is less common in professional sports yet stands the test of time with the current series leader.

"It was a tougher day for us at St. Louis, but the good thing is that we didn't lose too many points and we are still tied for the lead," he said. "I am looking forward to the last five races and doing what we can to get back up on top." The tone on press day was similar, as he repeatedly stated that "nothing is wrong" and he "does not have a messed-up ankle" nor has he "pulled anything."

In talking to those around Tomac, there is an idea that he is less comfortable in softer, East Coast conditions and that's behind the uninspired St. Louis showing. There is credence to that, but it does little to justify Alabama (that has been blamed on sickness) and Michigan. Tennessee's Nissan Stadium is typically hard pack with baked dirt. Could that surface propel him to his former level?

There's a dataset from Missouri that disputes that claim and hints at a health issue. Prior to the halfway mark, he posted times competitive with the likes of Jorge Prado and Cooper Webb – he was on par. Suddenly, on the thirteenth lap, he posted a time that was four seconds slower than his previous average and never recovered. That became the norm across the remainder of the race.

It's a bizarre drop off, impossible to justify via the conditions and unheard of for riders at this level. Could it be linked to the illness that thwarted him in Alabama? Perhaps, although that was two weeks ago. If it's still rearing its ugly head then that's cause for concern in itself. 

Verdict: I, like many, refuse to believe that this is the norm.

HUNTER'S WRIST WORRIES

So much was said about Tomac after the eleventh round that Lawrence slipped beneath the radar, despite the fact that he was nursing a "jammed" wrist. '96' lacked the intensity that served him so well in March – evident in how he was stuck behind Prado for some time – but landed on the podium for the ninth time this year, nonetheless.

"It just hurts and it gives out when there's a big hit," Lawrence explained with his bronze medal in hand. "Nothing is broken – it is just really sore and swollen in that joint. It was fine to do what I did today. With how it is, I am really happy with how I'm leaving St. Louis. I rode a little bit on Tuesday – maybe ten minutes – and then fifteen minutes on Wednesday. It was a rehab week. We are still in a great spot."

Perhaps typical of Lawrence, he was reluctant to use the ailment as an excuse and still set his best lap time later than anyone else in the main event (the eighth circulation).

It's well documented that he's tinkered with set-up – specifically suspension and the bike's balance – and I wonder if the momentum lost could magnify his search for comfort, prompting him to lose sight of just how good he is and has been? That's the narrative to follow. The wrist problem does not appear to be a long-term issue or source of concern.

Verdict: Lawrence rebounded well when Tomac could not.

COOPER'S TANGLED 'WEBB'

Webb has missed the podium on three consecutive weekends, something that has not happened since late 2023. A damning statistic, yet one that is not reflective of his speed on the YZ450F. The current champion made more passes than anyone else in St. Louis' main.

"It is one of those seasons where I feel like the effort has been at the maximum and the results haven't shown it, because of the intensity of everyone else," Webb reflected after the race. "Tonight is a perfect example: I feel I could have been in the mix and never gave myself a shot. I think I have tried too hard at certain levels, especially early in the season. You want to win so bad that you override or overthink."

It's odd to hear Webb reference 'overthinking' as his career has been built off avoiding that. It's reflective of the idea that there is no real explanation for this slump – no glaring issue needs to be fixed. It's not been his year and that's the cut and dry of it. Terrible analysis, yes, but it appears that's all Webb has to point to too. The true source of frustration.

I find myself wondering what this term would have looked like if he had trusted the path taken in the off-season and stuck with the 2026 chassis. Perhaps the trajectory of this inconsistent season was set via the turbulent winter that he and the team encountered?

Verdict: Webb's worst year since 2022, without any doubt.