2011 SX Rankings

felpro
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Edited Date/Time 1/26/2012 8:32pm
I have put the riders into groups reflecting my assessment of the realistic expectations that surround these guys. The collective mindset of the riders, the teams and spectators.


A+ Winners

Stewart
Reed
Dungey
Villopoto

These guys expect to win. The top of the box is the only place that is acceptable. Of these I feel Dungey may have the lesser killer instinct, only 'cause it is all so controlled.



A Top 3 guys.

Canard
Grant
Tedesco
Windham
Short

A podium is expected by these riders. A win can come from the demise of all of the top guys. They know how to win.



B+ Top 5 guys.

Metcalfe
Brayton
Millsaps

These guys would be happy with an appearance or three on the podium. A win would take a miracle or four.



B Top 10 guys.

Regal
Reardon
Simmonds
Hill
Wey
Stroupe
M Alessi
Chisholm
Hahn
Blose
Goerke
Boni

These guys expect to and should make the main but bad luck may prevent that some nights. Regal may be the surprise package, he may be a podium regular. Reardon and Simmons may surprise the US spectators who will be wondering who they are when they are up the front of a heat or an LCQ. Electric start will help Reardon make it this year, he would have had such a better start to his US career if he had been able to restart after a small mishap.



C Top 20

J Alessi
Durham
Partridge
Lemoine
Byrne
Borkenhagen
Gosselaar
Bright
Lawrence
Thomas
Friese
Clarke
Peick
Browne
Albertson

These riders hope to make the main. Top ten would be considered a wonderful result.


Overall, I hope Reed wins. I expect mains stacked with talented hard working racers. I hope for some great racing.

I expect James to be the fastest at times but a mansion is a better place to spend the night than the emergency ward.

I hope Tye Simmons and Reardon end one or 2 nights with a top 3 in a heat or even a main. I hope Regal becomes a major player. I hope Metty wins one. I hope JGR and H&H go home happy. I know Canard and Short will be happy, they always are !!

I believe that we will not have one dominant guy. 2011 may be the best season ever.
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Sparkalounger
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1/1/2011 3:30pm
That's a nice assessment! I might move a couple around just a bit, but overall it seems pretty accurate (IMHO).
It's nice to see all the names together and appreciate all the talent in the class.
1/1/2011 3:32pm
Whats funny is that there is 39 riders listed. So half wont even quilify for the main.
Grieby54
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1/1/2011 3:33pm
When I saw you throw Reardon in there I scrolled up to see where you were from. Sure enough...
NP301
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1/1/2011 3:34pm
That's a nice assessment! I might move a couple around just a bit, but overall it seems pretty accurate (IMHO). It's nice to see all the...
That's a nice assessment! I might move a couple around just a bit, but overall it seems pretty accurate (IMHO).
It's nice to see all the names together and appreciate all the talent in the class.
I'd put Metcalfe in the A not the B+

The Shop

mxr102
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1/1/2011 3:37pm
I think you might wanna move Jimmy Albertson up a couple groups. He does ride with TC41 quite alot, he will be another Dark Horse for sure.
500guy
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1/1/2011 3:38pm
That's a nice assessment! I might move a couple around just a bit, but overall it seems pretty accurate (IMHO). It's nice to see all the...
That's a nice assessment! I might move a couple around just a bit, but overall it seems pretty accurate (IMHO).
It's nice to see all the names together and appreciate all the talent in the class.
I agree, I think he under rated Milsaps who has I think 4 SX wins , over rated Tedesco a little and under rated Metcalf.
1/1/2011 5:43pm
Grieby54 wrote:
When I saw you throw Reardon in there I scrolled up to see where you were from. Sure enough...
The list is pretty on point but I agree that he has Reardon WAY overrated. Reardon has been touted as a consistent top 10 SX guy since he got to the US ,quite some time ago now, and he has never lived up to his hype. About the only memorable moment I can remember that included Reardon was when he tried his hardest to launch into the first row of seats. Don't get me wrong I think the guys got skills but he's one of the guys that leaves me scratching my head every year when he keeps getting signed to decent teams.

Besides that ,like 500guy pointed out, I think you have Metty under rated and Tadesco over rated.

The big ? marks for me this year will be Regal and Stroupe. Both of these kids could either light the world on fire if the stars align right.
felpro
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1/1/2011 5:45pm Edited Date/Time 1/1/2011 6:01pm
I have come from another angle with this list. An interpretation of the collective chatter, expectations before and the likely satisfaction after the race. For the top 4 a second or third is pathetic, for the last group making the main is a great night for them, their team, sponsors and their supporters.

It's about a results comfort zone, so a lot of guys will go better than the rankings suggest and some will go worse.

20 great guys will face the starter in the main. All will earn the spot, some might have been a little lucky. There will be a lot of talent watching from the stands . . .

The high rankings for Reardon and Simmons come from an results from home and abroad against local and international competition. Not just finishes, but how they raced up until a minor mishap. I recall Reardon 2nd or 3rd in a heat, getting punted by JLaw, not able to start a bike and trying to push it up a jump. Thereafter not making the main and less confidence . . I assume !! Naturally I have followed those careers a little closer - I have high expectations, as would they coming off domestic success in the previous years.

I hope the list gets re assessed after the first few races as someone who would be happy with a top ten at the outset, may start to expect a top five or top three. Regal ? Blose ? Millsaps ?

Might we see a mellower James ? A frustrated Chad ? A Dungey surrounded by overwhelming talent ?
Mod Killer
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1/1/2011 5:48pm
i move

tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+

alessi and up to B+

hill and stroupe up to A


and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably should be in the B+ catagory with the other pretenders but has earned just where he sits on your list i suppose.
Grieby54
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1/1/2011 6:27pm
Mod Killer wrote:
i move tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+ alessi and up to B+ hill and stroupe up to A and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably...
i move

tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+

alessi and up to B+

hill and stroupe up to A


and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably should be in the B+ catagory with the other pretenders but has earned just where he sits on your list i suppose.
Yes, Alessi who has NEVER won a supercross race on a little bike or big, should definitely be categorized in the same talent group as Kevin Windham (125 champ, 18 Main Events won), Tedesco (125 Champ, plenty of podiums), and Short (East West Shootout winner, Top 5 in points for the past 4 seasons or so). Good call.
1/1/2011 6:33pm
hill and mudflaps have both won before (its an elite group in 4fiddy class SX) so I would have them in A (if fit?)...........

reardon has under delivered for sometime. (better outdoors thou) .....C+ (and i'm an aussie)


KDUB!....the legend.....A+ as well...........

stroupes a wrecking ball.....nuff said.........
1/1/2011 6:36pm
Not bad, felpro. I'd probably move a few names up'n'down; however, the overall logic of your ranking system seems fairly sound.

Any chance you're currently working out the rankings for the Lites Class (East and West)?
jeffro503
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1/1/2011 6:40pm Edited Date/Time 1/1/2011 6:41pm
Mod Killer wrote:
i move tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+ alessi and up to B+ hill and stroupe up to A and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably...
i move

tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+

alessi and up to B+

hill and stroupe up to A


and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably should be in the B+ catagory with the other pretenders but has earned just where he sits on your list i suppose.
You would move MA ahead of KW.....are you fucking kidding me? I wouldn't move stroupe up into A either ahead of KW.



For one....i think KW is going to surprise a lot of people this year.....just like he does EVERY year!



Felpro............good friggin' list man! Very realistic from what I can see.
jeffro503
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1/1/2011 6:43pm
Antipodean wrote:
Not bad, felpro. I'd probably move a few names up'n'down; however, the overall logic of your ranking system seems fairly sound. Any chance you're currently working...
Not bad, felpro. I'd probably move a few names up'n'down; however, the overall logic of your ranking system seems fairly sound.

Any chance you're currently working out the rankings for the Lites Class (East and West)?
I think the lites classes ( both coasts ) would be tough to do for sure. A lot of new up and coming kids could be fast as hell. And a lot of them that have been a round a while have moved to different teams....which could help or hinder them.
Grieby54
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1/1/2011 6:44pm Edited Date/Time 1/1/2011 7:20pm
I italicized the changes. Here's my take on it:



A+ (Majority of the wins will come from this group. They will be regulars on the podium)



Stewart

Reed

Dungey

Villopoto





A (Might be a couple of wins among this group. They will each see the podium a few times)



Canard

Grant

Windham

Short





A- (These guys will see the podium a few times, but it's unlikely they'll get a win)


Metcalfe

Hill - (When he's healed up)





B+ (Might see the podium a couple of times, but more often will fill in leftover top 10 positions)



Tedesco

Brayton

Millsaps (Hard to rate - He'll be on the podium as often as he's outside the top 15)

Stoupe





B (Occasional top 10's)



Regal

Albertson

Wey

Chisholm

Hahn

Blose

Goerke

Byrne





C+ (Will not make all the mains, but are still solid riders)



Boni

Reardon

Simmonds

M Alessi

J Alessi

Durham

Partridge

Lemoine

Borkenhagen

Thomas

Friese

Clarke
MX4EVR
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1/1/2011 6:44pm
Js7 has the greatest chance of winning the opener. I would say twitter reed and thank god he's not fat villi are tied for 2nd best chance of winning. RD1 will soon see how fast the corner speed and tenacity of Js7, Cr22, and Rv2 really is.
Outsider
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1/1/2011 7:27pm
MX4EVR wrote:
Js7 has the greatest chance of winning the opener. I would say twitter reed and thank god he's not fat villi are tied for 2nd best...
Js7 has the greatest chance of winning the opener. I would say twitter reed and thank god he's not fat villi are tied for 2nd best chance of winning. RD1 will soon see how fast the corner speed and tenacity of Js7, Cr22, and Rv2 really is.
A1+2=W
Chris O'Neal
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1/1/2011 7:34pm
Mod Killer wrote:
i move tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+ alessi and up to B+ hill and stroupe up to A and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably...
i move

tedesco, short, and kdub down to B+

alessi and up to B+

hill and stroupe up to A


and JLaw....what a waste. A+ ability....probably should be in the B+ catagory with the other pretenders but has earned just where he sits on your list i suppose.
Grieby54 wrote:
Yes, Alessi who has NEVER won a supercross race on a little bike or big, should definitely be categorized in the same talent group as Kevin...
Yes, Alessi who has NEVER won a supercross race on a little bike or big, should definitely be categorized in the same talent group as Kevin Windham (125 champ, 18 Main Events won), Tedesco (125 Champ, plenty of podiums), and Short (East West Shootout winner, Top 5 in points for the past 4 seasons or so). Good call.
You took the words right out of my mouth, Grieby!

Alessi will be lucky to qualify this year unless there isn't any whoops! Woohoo
Old Mate
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1/1/2011 7:48pm
Brayton does not get much credit but he is my dark horse, along with Metty,Grant and Cunningham on the 250 i expect these guys to ride as fast as the big names unless one big name can step up and leave them all behind.
Sparkalounger
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3/30/2011 5:11pm
another one to ponder... seems like felpro did a pretty decent job... calcumotor?
bama205
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3/30/2011 5:14pm
hate to say, but i dont think RD should be in the firstgroup. especially if Canard isnt... and im a dungey fan more so than i am a Canard fan.
Cody24
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3/30/2011 5:28pm
Canard is proving that he should be in that first group. Those 5 guys are always battling for podiums.
JCRF217
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3/30/2011 5:34pm
i think you guys all underestimate brayton. he is right up there in the 4-7 area so he would be a easy A no problem. he is beating the guys you have listed for A's every single week unless a crash.
Cody24
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3/30/2011 5:40pm
JCRF217 wrote:
i think you guys all underestimate brayton. he is right up there in the 4-7 area so he would be a easy A no problem. he...
i think you guys all underestimate brayton. he is right up there in the 4-7 area so he would be a easy A no problem. he is beating the guys you have listed for A's every single week unless a crash.
He's beating most them besides Trey...
LouDog
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3/30/2011 6:04pm
Grieby54 wrote:
I italicized the changes. Here's my take on it: A+ (Majority of the wins will come from this group. They will be regulars on the podium)...
I italicized the changes. Here's my take on it:



A+ (Majority of the wins will come from this group. They will be regulars on the podium)



Stewart

Reed

Dungey

Villopoto





A (Might be a couple of wins among this group. They will each see the podium a few times)



Canard

Grant

Windham

Short





A- (These guys will see the podium a few times, but it's unlikely they'll get a win)


Metcalfe

Hill - (When he's healed up)





B+ (Might see the podium a couple of times, but more often will fill in leftover top 10 positions)



Tedesco

Brayton

Millsaps (Hard to rate - He'll be on the podium as often as he's outside the top 15)

Stoupe





B (Occasional top 10's)



Regal

Albertson

Wey

Chisholm

Hahn

Blose

Goerke

Byrne





C+ (Will not make all the mains, but are still solid riders)



Boni

Reardon

Simmonds

M Alessi

J Alessi

Durham

Partridge

Lemoine

Borkenhagen

Thomas

Friese

Clarke
So I see no Peick on your list you sure got all those guys right.

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