Where are the prospects?

RichieW13
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Am I mis-remembering, or didn't the factory teams used to have a new rookie come up to the 250 class just about every year?  It seems like we haven't had many lately.

Last year Cole Davies turned pro, so that's good.   

But I think Honda hasn't had a new pro since Chance Hymas in 2002.  Has Kawasaki had a new pro since Hammaker in 2021?  


There must be some other recent pros that I am just forgetting about.


Is this just due to the changing age minimum to turn pro?  

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RichieW13
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Drew Adams was kawi last year. 

I figured there had to be some I am forgetting.

mx251
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the era of the well to do at training facilities...

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DonM
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It's always been just a few moving up each year that would be considered prospects and  Adams and Davies were the last two before that it was Deegan and Hymas.... but you have a bunch of them coming soon with the current crop....the 3 Star boys, Wey and Johnson at Kaw are probably the next few over the next few years and that doesn't include any of the KTM/Husky prospects that are on their way up soon...I actually see it growing because of the SMX program. 

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Vet57
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crt32
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None stand out anymore because they'd rather hit their marks at the training facility vs actually racing. When they do turn pro, they aren't fast enough and disappear into the distance. 

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2/3/2026 8:07am

Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys are around. Also, star has two really promising young guys. 

Lux, Ross, Julian, Kayden M, Dudney, Adams just off the top of my head are young guys who are very promising. 

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RichieW13
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mx251 wrote:

the era of the well to do at training facilities...

I'm not sure what you mean. Can you expand?

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GrapeApe
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Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys...

Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys are around. Also, star has two really promising young guys. 

Lux, Ross, Julian, Kayden M, Dudney, Adams just off the top of my head are young guys who are very promising. 

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

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Toste
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Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys...

Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys are around. Also, star has two really promising young guys. 

Lux, Ross, Julian, Kayden M, Dudney, Adams just off the top of my head are young guys who are very promising. 

GrapeApe wrote:
I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There...

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

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uncledaddy69
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2/3/2026 9:54am

Drew Adams was kawi last year. 

Kawasaki has one almost yearly. Most recently, Forkner, Marchbanks, Hammaker, Ryder D, Reynolds, Adams, and now Temmerman. 

Star has been, Cooper, Kitchen, Leblanc, Frye, Romano, Towers, Deegan, Davies, and now the three guys they got from Kawi’s amateur program. 

Honda hasn’t had many. Hymas was a Kawasaki kid and got the Honda ride after PC gave Hammaker the ride.


KTM has been tough to keep track of. Vohland and Hawkins were recent ones. 

GrapeApe
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2/3/2026 10:13am
Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys...

Guys racing older definitely has a trickle down effect. Rookies are starting at smaller satellite teams. However, if you look deeper many promising rookie/1-2 year guys are around. Also, star has two really promising young guys. 

Lux, Ross, Julian, Kayden M, Dudney, Adams just off the top of my head are young guys who are very promising. 

GrapeApe wrote:
I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There...

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

Toste wrote:
Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed...

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high level. Hard to "shuffle" championship contenders and race winners out of good rides. 

 

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Toste
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GrapeApe wrote:
I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There...

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

Toste wrote:
Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed...

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

GrapeApe wrote:
I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high...

I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high level. Hard to "shuffle" championship contenders and race winners out of good rides. 

 

Yes, my theory is that the sport has matured to the point where there are no huge secrets to unlock, everyone mostly knows what everyone else is doing. The big jumps forward in progress have already happened. This gives an edge to veteran riders that previous eras didn't have, as these older guys have had years of fine tuning what is already known to work under their belts. Could be total BS, but that's my idea on it. 🤷‍♂️

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jmo443
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2/3/2026 11:01am
Toste wrote:
Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed...

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

GrapeApe wrote:
I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high...

I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high level. Hard to "shuffle" championship contenders and race winners out of good rides. 

 

Toste wrote:
Yes, my theory is that the sport has matured to the point where there are no huge secrets to unlock, everyone mostly knows what everyone else...

Yes, my theory is that the sport has matured to the point where there are no huge secrets to unlock, everyone mostly knows what everyone else is doing. The big jumps forward in progress have already happened. This gives an edge to veteran riders that previous eras didn't have, as these older guys have had years of fine tuning what is already known to work under their belts. Could be total BS, but that's my idea on it. 🤷‍♂️

This makes sense to a “casual” fan due to the amount of content that is put out these days. Trust me the top guys of the sport had all this for a while now. Nothing “new” is really happening besides things that have happened in the past. One of the things I’m talking about is the guys trying to adapt to the Lawrence style how they did the “bubba scrub” and many other things before. Everything in the big picture isn’t too much different than say 15 years ago. Dartfish is a technological advance that does a lot of good which came out in 1998, not sure exactly when it was implemented in moto. 

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mx251
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mx251 wrote:

the era of the well to do at training facilities...

RichieW13 wrote:

I'm not sure what you mean. Can you expand?

Are these riders truly world class athletes or just the ones that can afford to be there?

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2/3/2026 11:37am
GrapeApe wrote:
I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There...

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

Toste wrote:
Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed...

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

GrapeApe wrote:
I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high...

I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high level. Hard to "shuffle" championship contenders and race winners out of good rides. 

 

And the 250 class is too expensive . Janik is done I never heard of him racing last yr. He was the last rider to beat Deeg,s on a super mini.  A close 2nd to Adam’s 2 yrs ago .  

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RichieW13
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Kawasaki has one almost yearly. Most recently, Forkner, Marchbanks, Hammaker, Ryder D, Reynolds, Adams, and now Temmerman. Star has been, Cooper, Kitchen, Leblanc, Frye, Romano, Towers, Deegan...

Kawasaki has one almost yearly. Most recently, Forkner, Marchbanks, Hammaker, Ryder D, Reynolds, Adams, and now Temmerman. 

Star has been, Cooper, Kitchen, Leblanc, Frye, Romano, Towers, Deegan, Davies, and now the three guys they got from Kawi’s amateur program. 

Honda hasn’t had many. Hymas was a Kawasaki kid and got the Honda ride after PC gave Hammaker the ride.


KTM has been tough to keep track of. Vohland and Hawkins were recent ones. 

Forkner was a rookie in 2016.  Marchbanks in 2018 and Hammaker in 2021.  I don't know if those count as "recent".

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mxaddicted
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2/3/2026 12:19pm

I thought Keefer's kid was supposed to race Houston?

2/3/2026 1:03pm
GrapeApe wrote:
I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There...

I agree with this, there is a backlog in the 450 class due to all the 30 somethings that has disrupted the natural talent flow. There are a lot of guys in the 250 class that have been ready to move up but they can't, so it's harder for the riders coming out of the amateurs to land a team ride. 

Toste wrote:
Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed...

Right, but in previous generations the young riders coming up would have shuffled those older guys to the back (and into retirement). Something has definitely changed but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.

GrapeApe wrote:
I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high...

I think what changed is guys used to start floundering when they got in their 30's but this crop is still competing at a really high level. Hard to "shuffle" championship contenders and race winners out of good rides. 

 

I made a similar comment to this a few weeks ago. This generation of riders are raising the bar and setting a new standard. The young guys have been afforded more time to develop as a result. If they are that good, they will still rise to the top and earn a ride in the premier class. If you can’t consistently beat a rider in his mid 30’s, you don’t get the ride. 

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deanwhite51
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2/3/2026 1:40pm

Kayden Minear in outdoors is like watching Cole Davies ride SX. 

Dont forget you got a few prospects coming through who have eyes on America but taking a different amateur route, which seems to be more and more common. Levi Townley comes to mind.


But, Blake Bohannon!!! Remember the name! Stepped off a 65 and gave the absolute smoke to the 85 class,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf-sLAJLmb4



 

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uncledaddy69
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Kawasaki has one almost yearly. Most recently, Forkner, Marchbanks, Hammaker, Ryder D, Reynolds, Adams, and now Temmerman. Star has been, Cooper, Kitchen, Leblanc, Frye, Romano, Towers, Deegan...

Kawasaki has one almost yearly. Most recently, Forkner, Marchbanks, Hammaker, Ryder D, Reynolds, Adams, and now Temmerman. 

Star has been, Cooper, Kitchen, Leblanc, Frye, Romano, Towers, Deegan, Davies, and now the three guys they got from Kawi’s amateur program. 

Honda hasn’t had many. Hymas was a Kawasaki kid and got the Honda ride after PC gave Hammaker the ride.


KTM has been tough to keep track of. Vohland and Hawkins were recent ones. 

RichieW13 wrote:

Forkner was a rookie in 2016.  Marchbanks in 2018 and Hammaker in 2021.  I don't know if those count as "recent".

My point is that there has been a steady stream of prospects moving up for a while, but phenoms like RC, Bubba, Villo, are rare. The prospects are here, they’re just not dominating immediately. I think the industry standard for the time it takes to get settled in and find your feet in the 250 class now is about 3 years (unless you’re Star)

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ML512
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2/3/2026 5:57pm

Minear or Dudney may start 250 East.

This is almost like Adams rookie year, since he was a sub in Supercross last year.

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deanwhite51
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ML512 wrote:

Minear or Dudney may start 250 East.

This is almost like Adams rookie year, since he was a sub in Supercross last year.

Dudney is far more polished in SX. As much as Kayden has been pushing for east. I think Bobby will wait until outdoors after his recent crash 

2/3/2026 6:31pm

Blair, who's quite the scout, talks about Dudney like he's going to be a world beater. On his quick weekly sc review, hes talking like he's going to be a threat immediately this summer 

Money
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2/3/2026 6:49pm
ML512 wrote:

Minear or Dudney may start 250 East.

This is almost like Adams rookie year, since he was a sub in Supercross last year.

One of them or both filling in for the injured star rider? 

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