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I understand you are just picking a winner. If I had to pick one I would give the slight edge to Bubba. The reason being, on raw speed alone I believe he may be able to out class the field. I could easily see him winning 10+ race's, if he stays healthy and stays away from the dnf's he will be tough to beat. Likewise out of those 4 I would agree say he has the biggest risk of crashing out.
Time will tell, let the good times roll. A1 is almost close enough to smell....
The way I see it, there are 3 main things you need: raw speed, control, and (mental toughness, determination, never say die, whatever you want to call it). I think that there are four riders that have all three: Dungey, Stewart, Canard, and Villopoto. I think RV is smart enough to dial it back a hair this year and be in control.
Raw Speed - 1) Stewart 2) RD and RV (tie) 4) Trey
Control - 1) RD 2) Trey 3) Stewart and RV (tie)
Mental - 1) RD 2)RV 3) Trey 4) Stewart
So that's my prediction for the end of the year - 1) RD 2) RV 3) Stewart 4) Trey
I just don't see Reed having the raw speed to consistently run at the top on a non-factory Honda. Shorty, Metcalfe, Weimer, they all have control and mental toughness, but not the raw speed. Grant has the speed, but has yet to show control over the whole year. Windham has flashes of speed and great control, but it's hard to lay it on the line for 18 rounds at his age with a family.
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James will be the fastest, but will crash himself out of the series. He'll be exciting to watch as usual, but won't get it done. 2011 will be status quo for JS.
Ryan Villipoto is a big question mark for me. In the past, I felt he was the next coming of Ricky Carmichael. No longer do I feel that way. He's finished exactly 1/2 of a big bike season in the last 2 years. Not good! In additon, most guy's have difficuly re-gaining their old speed and confidence after a horrific crash such as his. This could be a problem for RV. He needs to worry about finishing a season more than anything right now. If he crashes out once again, his days as a top tier factory rider may numbered. That being said, he will be a top 3-4 guy most weekends. Won't be champ at the end of the season though. I hope he proves me wrong. I really love watchin the guy ride when he's on!
Chad Reed is riding for a paycheck at this point and I don't blame him really. His determination to win a SX C-ship is no where near what it once was. He has shit loads of money in the bank, a new baby, a beautiful wife, etc.. I think self preservation is more important to Chad than wining a SX C-Ship. In addition, the stress of running his own team will play a big factor in his results. He will be a top 4-5 guy, but a click behind RD, JS and RV.
All others will be fighting for the 5th spot. Canard will have his moments, but I think his time is in the future, not now. Whatever the outcome though, this stands to be the best SX season in years. The class is absolutely stacked.
Go back to the drawing board grover738! That non-factory crap is a non issue! Pro Circuit gives those guys just as good of stuff as the factory's do!
RV, Reed, Dungey, Stewart, Canard, Pourcel and Weimar should all be similar in speed.
Stewart could be the fastest, but Dungey has all the pieces of the puzzle if he can cope with defending the champoinship pressure.
If Pourcel rides he could be a big threat for Dungey's title , I wouldn't count Reed out either. RV is fast enough but rides the edge too much, if he is smoother he could win. Canard will be good all year, as will Weimar - they could win races but maybe not the title.
Now Stewie, how do you even know WHAT his speed is? We saw him race Unadilla, he wasn't very impressive. Other than that he has not raced, so how do we measure his speed? You're basing his speed on what he did in SX 2009, because he wasn't all that impressive at A1 2010 either. Dungey pretty much matched his speed there and Dungey WILL be faster at A1 2011.....so will RV. For the record, at one point or another in 2010, Dungey beat every single top rider anyone can name on the planet. How's that for who'd he have to deal with? Cairoli certainly had a rude awakening when he came to the Des Nations. As did Stewart when he showed up at Unadilla. In fact 2nd moto at Unadilla, Alessi and James were battling for 11th. Funny how that order would have been 1-2 in the first half of 2008 MX. James certainly has the ability to prove me wrong and win the title in 2011, but it is not a forgone conclusion as so many are saying. Reed is no longer a title contender. I predict he retires after 2011.
The 2009 days of James or Chad falling down and getting up and finishing 2nd are done with. Neither of these guys have raced in a stacked field like this, no one has. It will take a different mindset of patience and taking what you can get and not making it worse. I don't think that works in Stewart's favor at all. Dungey has certainly proven to be calculated and smart.
Pit Row
Bingo! There is nothing more to say about the upcoming season. Now we all have to put up lame threads to kill time until A1. Now, no fucking injuries!!
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