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In order for sociological perspectives to have any type of relevance to racing or the sports world, they would have to be consistent and reproducible.
Even in the most basic model, you cannot account for the will of mankind. Animals have instincts...they do not generate odds based on wealth, population, and climate.
Bike technology? Of course. This isn't about 3rd world vs 1st world. This is common sense. You will find that there is a reason why 3rd world countries suck at motocross. For example, many 3rd world countries still shoot at each other with AK47s. China is not a 3rd world country. They don't, however, give a shit about motocross.
You can certainly generate odds based of the variables at stake, but I ask, are they proportionate to the margins of victory? Sociology (the study of people) and Psychology (the study of minds) follow the scientific method. However, there are no clear guidelines for what is a successful result. Sociology depends on human observation (as does much of science.) My main problem with them, is they don't identify a proper amount of studies that would account for any useful data. 310 million people and a study of 5,000 represents science? Read a few sociological studies about bikers....that is the first thing that made me realize they are full of shit.
My guess is you don't know how things are ran. Do you pay your taxes to the president?
Megalomania is a word defined as: [1]
A psychopathological condition characterized by delusional fantasies of wealth, power, or omnipotence.
An obsession with grandiose or extravagant things or actions.
JUST SAYIN
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Look, I like America and unlike elements of the world's media who constantly demonize the U.S and blame it for every negative thing that happens, I believe that overall it is by far a force for good. And if people think otherwise, then they should consider the role China is going to "try" and take in the near future. We'll all be very thankful to Uncle Sam if that happens. America has achieved great, no, amazing things and everyone has benefitted in different ways.
But in no way we're you ever perfect either. I mean for heaven's sake, talk about having an over romanticised view of your country and then on top of that, the complete opposite view of everyone else in the world!.... "too big of pussies to take risks" lol. Un-freaking-fu@king-believable! But funny to.
I have no desire to be rude to anyone on this forum but you clearly have no understanding or appreciation of the sacrifices other countries have made throughout history towards freedom, justice, various engineering feats, medicine, exploration, culture etc etc and all long before and many since the creation of America.
Some of you guys put far to much into your nationality..it is good to be proud of your country, and the USA is a great country. but there is a limit... there are lots of great countries and the USA is not the only country where people are free or brave...
Nationality does not make a person better or worse... you don't even get to choose you nationality..I will judge a person based on who they are not what country they are from.. the same goes for watching motocross... support your own nations riders and enjoy watching great riders from different nationalities in whatever series.... and if you don't think having a huge country where motocross is popular helps in the Des nations you are deluded.
I did say that the American way promotes greatness.
Maybe you misunderstood or I mis-worded things.
I understand we are a bigger country and that is an advantage.
I still think Team Florida 2007 could beat any other non american mxon team EVER!!
RC in MX1 Ferry MX3 and we will put bubba on a 1- 2 Fizzle, just for show!!
I am a proud american, but not a close minded dickhead!!
American Exceptionalism is not a negative comment towards any other nation. It just means that we strive to do things above par.
Call me arrogant, I do not care man. I believe that America is the biggest, weathiest, most powerful nation on the globe.
Every leader in the world measures the value of their currency vs. the dollar. We do run the show in alot of ways.
Are we flawed, yeah I will admit we have become a little skewed as of late.
I apologize if I have offended anyone, I just love my country. I love motocross, whether it is in Colorado or Belgium. If you love dirtbikes, you are alright with me.
You can believe that sociological/psychology theories don't have any representation of reality, but that is just a statement of belief. Odds are, if you majored in either one of these subjects, by the time you graduated your perception would probably make a 180% shift. Disregarding the entire school of psychology, or sociology as “full of shit” based on a few studies about bikers (regardless if they were credible or not) is unreasonable. However, you are entitled to an opinion.
Sociology models are not 100% perfect, but they do have a connection with reality (according to the scientific method, not beliefs). And often, it doesn't necessarily take many variables to make accurate predictions about human, either on a mico (individual) or macro (societal) level. Of course, we could adopt the attitude that human observation, though reliable, is imperfect, and in that case, abandon the entire study of humans, animals, or the weather…
There are many sociological models, and variables, that successfully predict human phenomenon, e.g., A child’s success in school is almost identically correlated with his/or her parent’s income and educational level. We know what economic and personal variables lead to crime. The wider the economic gap in a country, the higher the violent crime rates in the country. For every divorce a person goes through, their odds of getting another divorce increases by around 30%. etc. etc…
As far as the model’s consistency and reproducibility go. Though you can’t mimic the results or experiment (in this case, the Motocross Des Nations) in a laboratory, you can revert back to historical data for observation, and the history of the Motocross Des Nations supports the model. Like I said before, it's no coincidence why the worlds greatest riders come out of three regions of the planet (Australia, USA, and Europe).
And finally, if you ever get the chance to take a course on statistics and research methods, you would learn that a study of 5,000 people is above average. Even for a population the size of the United States.
On The Will of Man-Kind etc. (from a previous reply)
Determination and hard work are more psychological characterists of an individual though, not sociological elements.
Using Ernesto Fonseca as example coming from a poorer country does not debunk the theory. Though it does add merit to his motocross achievements as an individual (coming from an extremely underprivileged country for motocross success), it only supports the theory. With a country like Costa Rica (and others similar) you wouldn't expect much of a dent in the Motocross Des Nation's record books, and that's exactly what you see. They haven't won a title as a country, and this year they didn't even finish in the top twenty at Des Nations; though I am sure their racers were the most hardworking, talented, and determined motocross athletes the country produced.
Pit Row
For example:
As far as the model’s consistency and reproducibility go. Though you can’t mimic the results or experiment (in this case, the Motocross Des Nations) in a laboratory, you can revert back to historical data for observation, and the history of the Motocross Des Nations supports the model. Like I said before, it's no coincidence why the worlds greatest riders come out of three regions of the planet (Australia, USA, and Europe)
This makes no sense when you break it down into countries. When did Germany become one again? 1990?
3 out of 7 isn't bad. Right around 42% chance of guessing right, and the odds go up when we are talking about continents. However, the MXoN is a team even by country.
It just depends on how you want to skew the statistics and data....my point is that you cannot possibly account for all of the required data to make a definite and realistic account for what happens at the motocross of nations. In fact, the data cited it way too general to even produce any type of result....let alone a realistic one.
Some studies contradict one another, because humans haven't came to any sort of consensus (it took 2000 years before humans universally accepted that the earth was round). I suppose some studies will never reach a definite conclusion in our lifetime, but there are thousands of studies that consistently support one another. You failing to recognize this, along with your belief that psychology and sociology studies are "bullshit" makes me question if you have any idea what you are talking about.
What is it that I am exactly manipulating?
Am I manipulating the size of the countries?
Am I manipulating the economic prosperity of these nations around the world?
Can you find some data that supports that America, Europe, and Australia are some of the poorer countries on the planet?
What exactly is it that I am manipulating?
And keep in mind, the model proposed in the initial post of this thread was something I threw together in a few hours. Since then I have found ways to revise it, and plan on taking it by my friend who has a Ph.D. in sociology (who is also a university professor) before spring break, and ask him the ways in which I can totally legitimize the model.
Your Math Assertions
What do you mean it makes no sense when you break it down into countries? 3 out of 7, out of what? Continents? Taking a random guess at these three regions of the earth being the best at motocross is not a 42% probability guess LOL!
Yes, you are correct, the number 3 is 42% of 7. Good job...
However, (and this is where your mathematics are wrong) just randomly guessing that Europe, USA, and Australia would be the world's best motocross regions on the planet (OUT OF ALL THE CONTINENTAL POSSIBILITIES) is a 1/114 probability! (N-factorial, divided by K-factorial, times (N-K) factorial). Furthermore, just by randomly guessing 3 of the 7 continents, in different arrangements, you have 35 possibilities!
Country and Regions
From a sociological standpoint, countries don't determine what regions of the planet will be successful at motocross. Variables, resources, human progression, in these regions of society do, e.g. economic prosperity, interest in the sport, resources to build tracks, climate to even have a motocross scene, level of progression in said regions, etc.
There is no way to absolutely predict what is going to happen at every single Motocross Des Nations from here on out. If you believe I think that, you are having difficulty comprehending my argument.
However, it's quite simple to explain why certain regions of the planet succeed at motocross, and others who participate, struggle tremendously. As far as the resources to develop a prosperous motocross scenes: Europe and America are quite evenly matched (more so, compared to other areas of the world).
What gives America the advantage in the Des Nations is the size of the country and number of top athletes to pick a team from. France is the size of Texas. So do you actually think if we picked a team of riders in America from the state of Texas that we would have the same chances of winning that we do now?
This is no way discrediting America's victories, but rather just an explanation why some regions of the world succeed in motocross, and others don't. If you want to give thanks for America's major advantage at the Motocross Des Nations, thank our founding fathers for both a federal and state government. If this place were divided up into 50 individual countries named California, Texas, Washington, etc. we would have a disadvantage in the Motocross Des Nations, compared to now; though it wouldn't have any affect on the progression of the sport in this region of the world.
We are pretty much saying the same thing. Sure, there are certain factors that attribute to success. The only difference comes in the form of scope. The scope is too broad. Like I said, lots of my posts were overly granular to illustrate the point.
I think that the factors need to hold up on at least the country level to be considered valid. The easy part is finding reasons that the US wins all of the time. The not so easy part is creating a model that is at least in the ballpark for the competing countries, as well as the US.
Here is a suggestion, make a spreadsheet that calculates a ratio of land mass, population, and wealth (I think those were your three main factors.) Then account for the podiums of the MXoN, and see if the data is at least semi consistent. (Wins are too centralized to compare data.)
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