where did all the inflation come from??

APLMAN99
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7/24/2024 2:30pm
ToolMaker wrote:
I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: "This mismatch is...

I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: 

"This mismatch is caused by a mix of predictable drivers, including demographic trends and high healthcare costs combined with an inadequate revenue base for the spending policies that we have enacted, all of which is exacerbated by compounding debt and interest costs. Adding to the problem, in 2017 and 2018, lawmakers passed fiscally irresponsible tax and spending measures that made our nation’s fiscal outlook considerably worse – adding more than $2 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years."

Of course if the tax rate goes down, you'll have a lower percentage relative to GDP. (As see in the following chart that I didn't copy and paste) But tax revenue actually went up. Me thinks there's an agenda?

TM

borg wrote:
Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the...

Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. 

Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the tax rate reduction increased the revenue or was even revenue neutral. Economic growth over the entire economy can easily overpower those rate reductions.The question is: would revenue have been even higher without the rate reductions? The bottom line however, is the effect on the deficit. PPF contends that the rate reductions of  2017/2018 will result in increased debt. That is their opinion. Any prediction of the future is an opinion. 

Now Manny doesn't trust the info coming from the fed and you are bringing in the same suspicion for the PPF. I have listed 2 of my sources for determining the cause of the spike in inflation in 2001-2002. There are many more. They have the data and the computer models.

I know it's a lot more fun to blame it on Biden and for the most part, I tend to stay out of those threads. Thus the "never mind" which was a consolidation of a text wall that I gave up on.

What are your sources for Biden being the main cause? 

 

ToolMaker wrote:
You can't possibly call yourself a liberal (LOL) and be for deficit and debt reduction, those are commonsense values!My beliefs come from teachings from Milton Friedman...

You can't possibly call yourself a liberal (LOL) and be for deficit and debt reduction, those are commonsense values!

My beliefs come from teachings from Milton Friedman. And yes I have read many things that claim he's wrong that I don't buy into.

Too busy spitting and making turds for a longer explanation LOL

Except........

Take a look at the deficit data during Democrat presidential budgets and Republican presidential budgets since the Carter era.  The biggest deficits and the biggest jumps in debt have come during the Republican terms.  

So perhaps 'common sense' is not quite as sensical as you think......

2
ToolMaker
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7/24/2024 3:20pm Edited Date/Time 7/24/2024 4:05pm
borg wrote:
Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the...

Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. 

Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the tax rate reduction increased the revenue or was even revenue neutral. Economic growth over the entire economy can easily overpower those rate reductions.The question is: would revenue have been even higher without the rate reductions? The bottom line however, is the effect on the deficit. PPF contends that the rate reductions of  2017/2018 will result in increased debt. That is their opinion. Any prediction of the future is an opinion. 

Now Manny doesn't trust the info coming from the fed and you are bringing in the same suspicion for the PPF. I have listed 2 of my sources for determining the cause of the spike in inflation in 2001-2002. There are many more. They have the data and the computer models.

I know it's a lot more fun to blame it on Biden and for the most part, I tend to stay out of those threads. Thus the "never mind" which was a consolidation of a text wall that I gave up on.

What are your sources for Biden being the main cause? 

 

ToolMaker wrote:
You can't possibly call yourself a liberal (LOL) and be for deficit and debt reduction, those are commonsense values!My beliefs come from teachings from Milton Friedman...

You can't possibly call yourself a liberal (LOL) and be for deficit and debt reduction, those are commonsense values!

My beliefs come from teachings from Milton Friedman. And yes I have read many things that claim he's wrong that I don't buy into.

Too busy spitting and making turds for a longer explanation LOL

APLMAN99 wrote:
Except........Take a look at the deficit data during Democrat presidential budgets and Republican presidential budgets since the Carter era.  The biggest deficits and the biggest jumps...

Except........

Take a look at the deficit data during Democrat presidential budgets and Republican presidential budgets since the Carter era.  The biggest deficits and the biggest jumps in debt have come during the Republican terms.  

So perhaps 'common sense' is not quite as sensical as you think......

I think you misunderstand. I'm for deficit and debt reduction no matter who's in office. And Borg's not a liberal, just like to poke fun.

TM

1
SoCalMX70
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8/15/2024 9:46am

Here's me waiting for a fiscally conservative party to come along...

1000005562.jpg?VersionId=tMZ1BFvfsQ3h5MrUOD
5

The Shop

ToolMaker
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8/15/2024 10:23am
SoCalMX70 wrote:
Here's me waiting for a fiscally conservative party to come along...

Here's me waiting for a fiscally conservative party to come along...

1000005562.jpg?VersionId=tMZ1BFvfsQ3h5MrUOD

Can someone have AI make that a group thing please? Add my name.

TM

1
Zycki11
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8/15/2024 11:11am
SoCalMX70 wrote:
Here's me waiting for a fiscally conservative party to come along...

Here's me waiting for a fiscally conservative party to come along...

1000005562.jpg?VersionId=tMZ1BFvfsQ3h5MrUOD

And here I thought it was you waiting for you wife to stop shopping. Silly me

Gworm
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8/15/2024 12:00pm

It’s pretty simple…

When an administration launches an attack on energy, and sends the price way up, everything will be more expensive. 

Who did that again?

1
Zycki11
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8/15/2024 3:14pm
borg wrote:

Never mind.

ToolMaker wrote:
I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: "This mismatch is...

I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: 

"This mismatch is caused by a mix of predictable drivers, including demographic trends and high healthcare costs combined with an inadequate revenue base for the spending policies that we have enacted, all of which is exacerbated by compounding debt and interest costs. Adding to the problem, in 2017 and 2018, lawmakers passed fiscally irresponsible tax and spending measures that made our nation’s fiscal outlook considerably worse – adding more than $2 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years."

Of course if the tax rate goes down, you'll have a lower percentage relative to GDP. (As see in the following chart that I didn't copy and paste) But tax revenue actually went up. Me thinks there's an agenda?

TM

borg wrote:
Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the...

Yes, they absolutely have an agenda. It's deficit and debt reduction. 

Increased revenue after a tax rate reduction to any particular sector does not mean that the tax rate reduction increased the revenue or was even revenue neutral. Economic growth over the entire economy can easily overpower those rate reductions.The question is: would revenue have been even higher without the rate reductions? The bottom line however, is the effect on the deficit. PPF contends that the rate reductions of  2017/2018 will result in increased debt. That is their opinion. Any prediction of the future is an opinion. 

Now Manny doesn't trust the info coming from the fed and you are bringing in the same suspicion for the PPF. I have listed 2 of my sources for determining the cause of the spike in inflation in 2001-2002. There are many more. They have the data and the computer models.

I know it's a lot more fun to blame it on Biden and for the most part, I tend to stay out of those threads. Thus the "never mind" which was a consolidation of a text wall that I gave up on.

What are your sources for Biden being the main cause? 

 

This was caused long before Bidens presidency but they have kicked it into high gear. If you want to be honest about it the gold backing split was the real reason inflation was started. This allowed the government to print the money coupled with the Banks being sloppy as shit and being bailed out for it and well here we are. Obviously that is a very watered down version when you take into equation actual economics, the stock market, housing, energy, commodities, GDP, Core CPI and non farm payroll. 

Joey Bridges
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8/15/2024 4:09pm

Holymotherfuckingshit.

The broad is calling for government price controls.

 

What a disaster in the making.

1
2
Zycki11
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8/15/2024 4:22pm

Holymotherfuckingshit.

The broad is calling for government price controls.

 

What a disaster in the making.

People believe more government oversight is the answer. It is not 

4
Joey Bridges
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8/15/2024 4:42pm

Holymotherfuckingshit.

The broad is calling for government price controls.

 

What a disaster in the making.

Zycki11 wrote:

People believe more government oversight is the answer. It is not 

"People" who weren't around during the carter administration's odd/even days during the government created gas shortages.

 

This time around it'll be food.

AZ35
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8/15/2024 4:46pm

Holymotherfuckingshit.

The broad is calling for government price controls.

 

What a disaster in the making.

Yeah, ironically calling out the "corporate greed" in groceries and food prices...? 

Profit margins in the grocery store segment is the lowest of any publicly traded category. Like sub 2% margins. Complete shit, always have been.

But hey lets not look at Google, Meta, Apple, etc who run 20-40% profit margins. They need that money to send to their Dem politicians.

2
Titan1
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8/15/2024 4:48pm

There are a lot of reasons for inflation...one of them that many people don't think of is the availability of debt.  How much would those $100K F150's cost if people had to pay cash?  How much would homes cost if people had to pay cash (or if the financing terms were far more restrictive)?  How many people would be on cruise ships, or resort vacations if they couldn't put those on the credit card?  How much would tuition cost if student loans weren't a thing (or heck, how much would tuition cost if student loans were risk based?) How much would big screen TV's cost...it goes on and on and on...our entire economy is propped up by debt.  If we couldn't finance pretty much everything and anything, everything could cost much much less...

3
Zycki11
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8/15/2024 5:14pm

Holymotherfuckingshit.

The broad is calling for government price controls.

 

What a disaster in the making.

Zycki11 wrote:

People believe more government oversight is the answer. It is not 

"People" who weren't around during the carter administration's odd/even days during the government created gas shortages.

 

This time around it'll be food.

I wasn’t around either, and I don’t know if we actually hit a recession or not. But when it happens it will be big is all I know. Not like 2008, but much larger. Hopefully we start spending money in the right damn areas to actually curb this made up bull shit 

SCR
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8/15/2024 7:28pm
Titan1 wrote:
There are a lot of reasons for inflation...one of them that many people don't think of is the availability of debt.  How much would those $100K...

There are a lot of reasons for inflation...one of them that many people don't think of is the availability of debt.  How much would those $100K F150's cost if people had to pay cash?  How much would homes cost if people had to pay cash (or if the financing terms were far more restrictive)?  How many people would be on cruise ships, or resort vacations if they couldn't put those on the credit card?  How much would tuition cost if student loans weren't a thing (or heck, how much would tuition cost if student loans were risk based?) How much would big screen TV's cost...it goes on and on and on...our entire economy is propped up by debt.  If we couldn't finance pretty much everything and anything, everything could cost much much less...

Of course. Debt is inflation. Inflated prices are a result of excess money beyond real growth of products and services, which is a result of artificially low iinterest rates for debt that gets put into overpriced assets inflating them even more, but not in to labor, equipment, business expansion.

Greenspan really put us on this lattest terrible inflation path about 25 years ago to fix the dot com crash, give Bush cheap money for his terror wars, and set the conditions for the housing crash. Bernanke and the Obama administration said hold my beer, they bailed out the banks, made sure nobody was held to account, and doubled down on money printing  with QE. 

Remember that time when every dirty rat in congress didnt even blink and voted yes to shut down the economy aND print 6 trillion or whatever it was. AND people say washington is broken aND the parties cant agree on anothing. When it comes to war and money printing they get on just fine.

I think they have no way out now. It's more printing and inflation ( debt ), or recession, depression. They will keep trying to manage it by increasing and decreasing the cost of debt and keep trying to manipulate with regulations. I'm confident they will never back off and allow the real markets to work.

I hear Kamala is going to tell us all about her economic plan to grow the economy from the middle inside out to the bottom or something. Maybe she can get all the corporations to promise to stop raising their prices aND that will make inflation go away.

 

2
joshd
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8/15/2024 9:32pm
JM485 wrote:
That’s because there is a lag effect to stimulus, stimulating today doesn’t create inflation tomorrow, it creates inflation months or even years from now.  I’d put...

That’s because there is a lag effect to stimulus, stimulating today doesn’t create inflation tomorrow, it creates inflation months or even years from now.  I’d put the blame pie at about 50/50 on this one.


Trump is half responsible for pushing stimulus on an already hot economy prior to Covid, then during Covid allowing ungodly amounts of stimulus in the form of money printing, checks, and PPP loans to people who didn’t need them.


Biden is half responsible for not pulling the plug quick enough.  He should have seen the lag effect comming and pushed Powell to cut stimulus and raise rates immediately, but instead he let it ride and the problem only got worse and worse.  

Either way, it goes to show that neither party is fiscally responsible and neither has the balls to actually do what would need to be done to actually fix the deficit and curb inflation, because they know it would be political suicide to do so.

borg wrote:

Never mind.

ToolMaker wrote:
I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: "This mismatch is...

I was reading from your PPF website. My take away is, you can make the numbers support any narrative you want. Example, they state: 

"This mismatch is caused by a mix of predictable drivers, including demographic trends and high healthcare costs combined with an inadequate revenue base for the spending policies that we have enacted, all of which is exacerbated by compounding debt and interest costs. Adding to the problem, in 2017 and 2018, lawmakers passed fiscally irresponsible tax and spending measures that made our nation’s fiscal outlook considerably worse – adding more than $2 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years."

Of course if the tax rate goes down, you'll have a lower percentage relative to GDP. (As see in the following chart that I didn't copy and paste) But tax revenue actually went up. Me thinks there's an agenda?

TM

Bro, I like Trump but stop. He fucked us on inflation.

Joey Bridges
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8/16/2024 2:30am

^^^

Well seeing as how you said so.

 

But I absolutely remember,

Better housing rates, and costs.

Better building material prices.

Lower fuel costs.

Lower food prices.

Lower prices for pretty much any goods and services across the board.

 

But hey, it's all good.

you do you.

1
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Joey Bridges
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Kingston, TN, USA
8/16/2024 2:37am Edited Date/Time 8/16/2024 2:39am

And just for a bit of first hand info...

We purchased our last rental property in Gatlinburg right before biden took office.

Not going to say how much, but was a steal when we see what things are going for right now.

 

And we purchased it with a 3.2 rate.

Those days disappeared almost immediatly after.

 

And...

We're seeing quite a few rentals sitting empty, with for sale signs.

A good percentage of those,

"By owner".

(Trying to sell high, or dump what's not bringing in the revenue needed to cover costs, or both.

Who knows.)

 

Place was rockin under the previous administration.

Far less have the discretionary funds for vacations these days.

1
2
Zycki11
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Edwardsville, IL, USA
8/16/2024 6:42am
Titan1 wrote:
There are a lot of reasons for inflation...one of them that many people don't think of is the availability of debt.  How much would those $100K...

There are a lot of reasons for inflation...one of them that many people don't think of is the availability of debt.  How much would those $100K F150's cost if people had to pay cash?  How much would homes cost if people had to pay cash (or if the financing terms were far more restrictive)?  How many people would be on cruise ships, or resort vacations if they couldn't put those on the credit card?  How much would tuition cost if student loans weren't a thing (or heck, how much would tuition cost if student loans were risk based?) How much would big screen TV's cost...it goes on and on and on...our entire economy is propped up by debt.  If we couldn't finance pretty much everything and anything, everything could cost much much less...

SCR wrote:
Of course. Debt is inflation. Inflated prices are a result of excess money beyond real growth of products and services, which is a result of artificially...

Of course. Debt is inflation. Inflated prices are a result of excess money beyond real growth of products and services, which is a result of artificially low iinterest rates for debt that gets put into overpriced assets inflating them even more, but not in to labor, equipment, business expansion.

Greenspan really put us on this lattest terrible inflation path about 25 years ago to fix the dot com crash, give Bush cheap money for his terror wars, and set the conditions for the housing crash. Bernanke and the Obama administration said hold my beer, they bailed out the banks, made sure nobody was held to account, and doubled down on money printing  with QE. 

Remember that time when every dirty rat in congress didnt even blink and voted yes to shut down the economy aND print 6 trillion or whatever it was. AND people say washington is broken aND the parties cant agree on anothing. When it comes to war and money printing they get on just fine.

I think they have no way out now. It's more printing and inflation ( debt ), or recession, depression. They will keep trying to manage it by increasing and decreasing the cost of debt and keep trying to manipulate with regulations. I'm confident they will never back off and allow the real markets to work.

I hear Kamala is going to tell us all about her economic plan to grow the economy from the middle inside out to the bottom or something. Maybe she can get all the corporations to promise to stop raising their prices aND that will make inflation go away.

 

They call this history repeating itself. Throughout history, when nations figured out a way to stretch the currency they eventually fall. Two options are available for closure. 

1. The people get smart enough to vote in a fiscally conservative president similar to Javier Milei to combat the stupidity that had carried on for far too long

2. We continue down this path of printing money and devaluing the dollar for optics which inevitably leads to failure 

2
8/16/2024 6:53am

The Fed has a secret rule where they purposely hike the inflation rate every 34 years. If you look at the charts since they began setting interest rates in the 1920's, they sync up perfectly with times of prosperity for the middle class followed by recessions to keep them reliant on debt. It is an artificially created spike to manipulate the markets and make consumers reliant on the debt market and therefore, the Fed itself. If you google "Fed inflation rule 34" there is plenty of evidence to make it obvious to anyone without their head in the sand.

8/16/2024 7:37am

Here are some interesting charts that i had saved from about 10 years ago....

cpi-1800-2005 01 percent breakdown 0

 

decomposing top 1percent 0.png?VersionId=Z4OZa 1G.fuA

 

income-gains46-04inc gains

 

aldrich plan

 

BuggyBailout
LoudLove
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8/16/2024 7:51am

Okay, lads, take a deep breath…hold it…and release.  Feel better?

It’s easy to Monday morning QB our way through the current economic situation.  Is inflation high?  Yes, but not historically high. Are interest rates also high?  Yes, but again, not at historic levels.  Prices have increased, as have wages, and the big picture analysis is not as dire as many think. 

We can speculate as to where we would be today if some actions in the past were not taken. Might things be better?  Possibly. Could they have been worse?  Absolutely. Each Federal decision was made using a myriad of analytics, and no single decision would cure all woes.

Lastly, presidential success is often tied to metrics they cannot control, including the global economy. Conservatives forecasted the end of capitalism under Obama, and yet the economy recovered in a dynamic fashion.  Meanwhile, Trump’s pro-business initiatives found early success but were thwarted by COVID. Could Trump have ignored quarantine recommendations and allowed individuals and businesses to decide for themselves?  I’m sure he wanted to, but he also didn’t want to be the guy responsible for escalating mortality rates. (Plus global restrictions were already in place which would damage economic growth anyway.)

Let’s not forget:  while presidents can make economic tweaks, it’s Congress and the Fed that have a greater impact.  Harris might preach a socialist agenda, but she will have a difficult if not impossible challenge implementing those plans. 

1

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