Current housing market

Joey_Bridges
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1550
Joined
1/23/2022
Location
Kingston, TN US
4/27/2022 10:57am
Brad460 wrote:
I’ve been watching lumber prices very close for about two years…I use Menard’s 1/2 OSB price as my gauge. Last year around Oct lumber dropped to...
I’ve been watching lumber prices very close for about two years…I use Menard’s 1/2 OSB price as my gauge.

Last year around Oct lumber dropped to almost pre-covid prices- OSB was up to $48 a sheet last year then dropped to $20 a sheet in Oct ‘21. At that point I ordered all the wood and trusses for the detached garage I am building.

OSB then got back up to $48 a sheet this year, but is back down to $33. I don’t think prices will drop further right now.

I’ve been building the garage below myself since last Oct. The biggest price shock was the LP Smart siding. For pre-painted siding the cost was $10,000! I ended up buying the siding primed and am painting it myself. Saving me $6000!

I’ve also been waiting on Windows and the garage doors that I ordered in Feb. Windows eta is May 15. Garage doors eta is June 17.

All said and done this garage is going to cost me about $50k. The only thing I didn’t do was the concrete. I am guessing to have a builder put up this garage would be closer to $100k..It’s 36x50.

This will add a lot to our homes value- I keep reminding my wife it’s an investment. We have been paying as we go..


Yeah.
We wait 6 months for garage doors.
3-5 months on exterior windows.
We just walked through two houses with the prints, marking door openings for size and swing, so we can place an order.
4-6 weeks for 6'8" doors, no date promised for the 7'0" doors on the main floors of one of the homes.

Trim packages will be deliverd in a few weeks, minus crown mouldings.
But running trim w/o the interior doors is a waste of time.
Doors set first, then cased before running everything else.

I'm lucky.
I can get in there and build my built in cabinetry.
Luckily, for now, prefinished, and birch ply are in stock.
But at a premium price.
Like everything else.

Later we'll be waiting on things like, appliances, cabinet hardware, etc..
Right now sub zero products are on a one year back order.

It's crazy.
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591MX
Posts
77
Joined
11/15/2018
Location
Fort Worth, TX US
4/27/2022 11:06am
I could be way off because I’m not an expert and I honestly hope I am but I don’t see how this can’t end up being a lot more than a “correction”. We might not be in the same situation as ‘08 but that’s because we’re in an all new ‘22 situation. Housing prices are out of control EVERYWHERE, inflation is insane, and the entire supply change is completely screwed and only going to get much worse before it gets better. That’s all fine and dandy that families were given loans they could actually afford at the time but when a loaf of bread hits $10 and the cost of every other day to day item triples due to inflation/shortages, are they still going to be able to afford them? Like I said I hope for everyone’s sake I’m wrong, I’m just doubtful that it won’t get ugly.
1
RichieW13
Posts
2409
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Thousand Oaks, CA US
4/27/2022 11:17am
591MX wrote:
I could be way off because I’m not an expert and I honestly hope I am but I don’t see how this can’t end up being...
I could be way off because I’m not an expert and I honestly hope I am but I don’t see how this can’t end up being a lot more than a “correction”. We might not be in the same situation as ‘08 but that’s because we’re in an all new ‘22 situation. Housing prices are out of control EVERYWHERE, inflation is insane, and the entire supply change is completely screwed and only going to get much worse before it gets better. That’s all fine and dandy that families were given loans they could actually afford at the time but when a loaf of bread hits $10 and the cost of every other day to day item triples due to inflation/shortages, are they still going to be able to afford them? Like I said I hope for everyone’s sake I’m wrong, I’m just doubtful that it won’t get ugly.
Inflation also means people are going to be paid more. At my company, we've had a lot of employees getting job offers to go elsewhere, and either leaving for more money or getting their offers matched to stay.

I wouldn't be surprised if there ends up being a small correction on housing prices in the next year or so. But I don't think any kind of 20% decrease in prices is going to happen.
2
Titan1
Posts
9409
Joined
2/3/2010
Location
Lehi, UT US
4/27/2022 2:44pm
591MX wrote:
I could be way off because I’m not an expert and I honestly hope I am but I don’t see how this can’t end up being...
I could be way off because I’m not an expert and I honestly hope I am but I don’t see how this can’t end up being a lot more than a “correction”. We might not be in the same situation as ‘08 but that’s because we’re in an all new ‘22 situation. Housing prices are out of control EVERYWHERE, inflation is insane, and the entire supply change is completely screwed and only going to get much worse before it gets better. That’s all fine and dandy that families were given loans they could actually afford at the time but when a loaf of bread hits $10 and the cost of every other day to day item triples due to inflation/shortages, are they still going to be able to afford them? Like I said I hope for everyone’s sake I’m wrong, I’m just doubtful that it won’t get ugly.
I've largely found that home prices being "out of control" is a matter of perspective.

Here in Utah, people are always complaining about home values...but we get a bunch of people moving here from CA who can't believe how cheap it is..."You mean, I can get 4500 sq feet on a half acre for $1.2M!?!?!?! I'll pay $100K over asking price, cash...I'm selling my 1900 sq foot on a 1/8th of acre for $1.5M". Meanwhile, native Utahans are dying from sticker shock.

Whenever someone says "prices cant go much higher, this isn't sustainable"...I point them to CA, or New England or Seattle (or a bunch of other markets significantly more expensive than this one)..."Actually, Yes, yes they can get much higher...and it is sustainable." It's all a matter of perspective.

Home mortgages are, historically, the last thing people don't pay...you'll see Americans eliminating expenses (subscription services, car wash membership, gym membership, etc.), reducing expenses (selling toys, selling cars, etc. etc.) to compensate for the increased cost of food, gas, etc. from inflation...They would default on their credit cards, default on car/toy loans long before they will just walk away from the mortgage (and all that equity) and be forced to rent.

Sure, some might feel the stress and try and sell to get their equity to pay off debt...but if that doesn't happen, they will fight to save their homes...so...as long as their mortgage payment doesn't skyrocket (which, they won't) and they can keep their jobs, people, largely, will keep paying their mortgages.
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2

The Shop

SLAPAHO
Posts
1909
Joined
8/15/2006
Location
Newport Beach, CA US
Fantasy
4/27/2022 8:47pm
Titan1 wrote:
One thing I don’t understand is the institutions buying up a ton of properties…I’ve got a pretty decent pulse on the market here in Utah…and I...
One thing I don’t understand is the institutions buying up a ton of properties…I’ve got a pretty decent pulse on the market here in Utah…and I haven’t heard one time of a hedge fund or huge investor group buying up any properties…let alone a huge chunk of them.

Is it just not happening in Utah?
I saw this on 60 minutes. This company is buying up houses like crazy. They pay over asking price, sometimes sight unseen and they pay all cash. They do some reno and then rent them out... mostly in the sun belt right now, but I'm sure it'll spread all over the US. They are making huge money... They're driving up prices big time too.

I've been waiting for the rates to go up and drive prices down a little.. and hopefully slow down the buying frenzy. It's ridiculous in So. California. It's just now starting to slow a little..


Chance1216
Posts
8348
Joined
4/1/2018
Location
Carson, CA US
4/27/2022 9:17pm
Titan1 wrote:
One thing I don’t understand is the institutions buying up a ton of properties…I’ve got a pretty decent pulse on the market here in Utah…and I...
One thing I don’t understand is the institutions buying up a ton of properties…I’ve got a pretty decent pulse on the market here in Utah…and I haven’t heard one time of a hedge fund or huge investor group buying up any properties…let alone a huge chunk of them.

Is it just not happening in Utah?
SLAPAHO wrote:
I saw this on 60 minutes. This company is buying up houses like crazy. They pay over asking price, sometimes sight unseen and they pay all...
I saw this on 60 minutes. This company is buying up houses like crazy. They pay over asking price, sometimes sight unseen and they pay all cash. They do some reno and then rent them out... mostly in the sun belt right now, but I'm sure it'll spread all over the US. They are making huge money... They're driving up prices big time too.

I've been waiting for the rates to go up and drive prices down a little.. and hopefully slow down the buying frenzy. It's ridiculous in So. California. It's just now starting to slow a little..


That shit should be illegal man. FFS.
4
5/4/2022 11:23am
2 nights ago in the sauna a couple real estate guys where talking about the banks calling nearly everyday with home foreclosures. This area has a solid economy from the paper and dairy industry also. The crash has started I saw it in the trucking rates. Same load that paid 5,200 now pays 1,700. My pal is a broker with a mega carrier loads from Cal. To Jersey was 10k now there 4K. When I left the truck yard of 30 co.s 99% where sitting. Wait 18 months home prices will drop 50% some already have.
1
RichieW13
Posts
2409
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Thousand Oaks, CA US
5/4/2022 11:32am
2 nights ago in the sauna a couple real estate guys where talking about the banks calling nearly everyday with home foreclosures. This area has a...
2 nights ago in the sauna a couple real estate guys where talking about the banks calling nearly everyday with home foreclosures. This area has a solid economy from the paper and dairy industry also. The crash has started I saw it in the trucking rates. Same load that paid 5,200 now pays 1,700. My pal is a broker with a mega carrier loads from Cal. To Jersey was 10k now there 4K. When I left the truck yard of 30 co.s 99% where sitting. Wait 18 months home prices will drop 50% some already have.
What homes have dropped 50%?
2
Chance1216
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8348
Joined
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Location
Carson, CA US
5/4/2022 2:52pm
2 nights ago in the sauna a couple real estate guys where talking about the banks calling nearly everyday with home foreclosures. This area has a...
2 nights ago in the sauna a couple real estate guys where talking about the banks calling nearly everyday with home foreclosures. This area has a solid economy from the paper and dairy industry also. The crash has started I saw it in the trucking rates. Same load that paid 5,200 now pays 1,700. My pal is a broker with a mega carrier loads from Cal. To Jersey was 10k now there 4K. When I left the truck yard of 30 co.s 99% where sitting. Wait 18 months home prices will drop 50% some already have.
RichieW13 wrote:
What homes have dropped 50%?
I’d like to see the sale history if, that’s the case. Although, I’m in the Seattle area, a house across the street from me listed at 425K and, sold for 500K.

Less then two months later it’s valued at 524K.😳

5/6/2022 12:08pm
There is some talk starting that the economy will move into recession at the end of 2023. If that happens, the housing market will change.

In September 2021 there were concerns the markets would crash, I was anticipating mid March. It started in April.

It might be worth it to begin preparing for 2023 now.
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5/6/2022 8:33pm
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good spot because this will be where we stay for a long time anyway to get the kids through school, and it's a really nice neighborhood
We used the money we made from selling our California house to put a nice 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance too. Now we will hold onto the rest of our cash to scoop up some condos to turn into rental properties if the housing market really does crash.
6
Chance1216
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8348
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Location
Carson, CA US
5/6/2022 8:39pm
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good...
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good spot because this will be where we stay for a long time anyway to get the kids through school, and it's a really nice neighborhood
We used the money we made from selling our California house to put a nice 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance too. Now we will hold onto the rest of our cash to scoop up some condos to turn into rental properties if the housing market really does crash.
Congrats man. That’s awesome.
1
Falcon
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Location
Menifee, CA US
5/9/2022 1:29pm
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good...
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good spot because this will be where we stay for a long time anyway to get the kids through school, and it's a really nice neighborhood
We used the money we made from selling our California house to put a nice 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance too. Now we will hold onto the rest of our cash to scoop up some condos to turn into rental properties if the housing market really does crash.
Nice. Cool
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Chance1216
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8348
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Location
Carson, CA US
5/10/2022 5:12pm Edited Date/Time 5/10/2022 5:16pm
Meanwhile in Washington. Anyone interested in a 400K crack house? Comes with free hepatitis. I think this pretty much sums up the market.


1
5/10/2022 9:59pm
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good...
We ended up buying. We got the interest rate dip at 3.8%, but the house was priced pretty high. I think we're still in a good spot because this will be where we stay for a long time anyway to get the kids through school, and it's a really nice neighborhood
We used the money we made from selling our California house to put a nice 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance too. Now we will hold onto the rest of our cash to scoop up some condos to turn into rental properties if the housing market really does crash.
That's a tough call. Interest goes up and the prices dip. I think I'd rather get a cheaper price and higher interest than high price and low interest. Might be able to refi into a lower interest in 6-8 years (for your condos)
TM
1
Logan_Ryall
Posts
164
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12/21/2011
Location
Bluff City, TN US
5/10/2022 10:04pm
Dealing with the same Shit. In what world is a mobile home worth 210k on 0.30 acre. Fountain inn sc. which is outside of Greenville. Insane!!
Titan1
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9409
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Location
Lehi, UT US
5/10/2022 10:18pm
Dealing with the same Shit. In what world is a mobile home worth 210k on 0.30 acre. Fountain inn sc. which is outside of Greenville. Insane!!
In world where someone is willing to pay that much for that property….prices are dictated by what someone is willing to pay. It’s not like real estate prices are just pulled out of a hat, or made up by some evil business man to punish the little guy…they are based on what someone paid for a similar property.
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1
Joey_Bridges
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Location
Kingston, TN US
5/11/2022 4:23am
Chance1216 wrote:
Meanwhile in Washington. Anyone interested in a 400K crack house? Comes with free hepatitis. I think this pretty much sums up the market.[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/05/10/549279/s1200_B650EA69_1FAA_4866_BC54_01627E44348C.jpg[/img] [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/05/10/549280/s1200_C754DE7E_0F83_43AA_A23E_59C4FCBB8C54.jpg[/img] [img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2022/05/10/549281/s1200_4E94AEAE_DF74_4E74_BD0E_6CFFF29FC9DD.jpg[/img]
Meanwhile in Washington. Anyone interested in a 400K crack house? Comes with free hepatitis. I think this pretty much sums up the market.


That's insane, but not unheard of these days.

Last year were looking for another rental property.
We knew right where we wanted to buy.
Sevier co just outside of the GSMNP.
But Jenn was scouring Zillow all around the country.
Not only were we amazed at prices.
But also couldn't believe how many dumps, like the one you posted, were being sold in that condition.
And at the same price per sqft as that one.

Pure garbage dumps.
A place like that probably needs a healthy six figures just to make it liveable.

Kitchen, bathrooms, and more will need to be taken back to bare studs.
Probably every interior door unit, and casing.
Baseboards, floors, and windows.
Plumbing fixtures, electric, etc...

Not to mention taking a good look around in the neighborhood and surrounding area.
Team Ideal
Posts
1159
Joined
9/22/2008
Location
Ste. Marie, IL US
5/11/2022 9:21am
We’re around 380K on our house currently and we’re not quite done. All construction is done, just need to finish out a walk in closet and two walls that get tile yet. I don’t think we’ll hit 4 but we might depending on what storage system I go with for the garage.

Our original appraisal from just the floor plans and list of what we were planning was for 340K. We had no issues getting a loan bc we were paying well over half ourselves. This was in Aug of 2021. We got our final appraisal for finishing up the construction loan and switching it to a mortgage and it came in at 460K. Monday our insurance guy came out took pictures and did a walk through. He emailed me the replacement list policy and they have it at 526K if they would have to completely rebuild it tomorrow.

I haven’t priced lumber or metal siding lately so I’m assuming that’s a lot of the difference. I do buy quite a bit of raw materials for machining and a 5” diameter x 144” piece of aluminum was $1200 8 months ago. The quote yesterday was $1940. Not sure how much longer this can keep going. We are seeing orders starting to slow down a little on some things.
KennyT
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4371
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Vista, CA US
Fantasy
5/11/2022 10:07am
Team Ideal wrote:
We’re around 380K on our house currently and we’re not quite done. All construction is done, just need to finish out a walk in closet and...
We’re around 380K on our house currently and we’re not quite done. All construction is done, just need to finish out a walk in closet and two walls that get tile yet. I don’t think we’ll hit 4 but we might depending on what storage system I go with for the garage.

Our original appraisal from just the floor plans and list of what we were planning was for 340K. We had no issues getting a loan bc we were paying well over half ourselves. This was in Aug of 2021. We got our final appraisal for finishing up the construction loan and switching it to a mortgage and it came in at 460K. Monday our insurance guy came out took pictures and did a walk through. He emailed me the replacement list policy and they have it at 526K if they would have to completely rebuild it tomorrow.

I haven’t priced lumber or metal siding lately so I’m assuming that’s a lot of the difference. I do buy quite a bit of raw materials for machining and a 5” diameter x 144” piece of aluminum was $1200 8 months ago. The quote yesterday was $1940. Not sure how much longer this can keep going. We are seeing orders starting to slow down a little on some things.
That rebuild cost is most likely materials. Also labor has to go up to compensate for the out of control inflation.

I’m putting in a 12’ sliding door unit today and needed a bunch of tubes of silicone. $13.20 per tube for the good stuff. It seems like my material cost go up daily and it’s all across the board. One positive is that 8’ - 2 by fours were down this week. $8 or so but at least they weren’t over $10 like they were a few weeks ago.
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11/9/2022 5:06am Edited Date/Time 11/9/2022 6:18am
I'm in the same position too. I'd like not to take out a mortgage on the house, but I have to do it. We are tired of not having our own family place. My wife and I have two kids. And I consider myself responsible for buying a house belonging to us and not to some guy from a neighboring state. I think buying a house is an important investment. You should not wait for lower prices. That's not going to happen. Judging by the forecasts I read on timthomas.co, the real estate market will become a crazy place, and then it will crash. I don't know how it will happen. But the constant rise in prices will someday lead to a lack of buyers.
Shiftfaced
Posts
859
Joined
12/15/2008
Location
Ruby Ridge, ID US
11/9/2022 6:07am
Titan1 wrote:
I've largely found that home prices being "out of control" is a matter of perspective. Here in Utah, people are always complaining about home values...but we...
I've largely found that home prices being "out of control" is a matter of perspective.

Here in Utah, people are always complaining about home values...but we get a bunch of people moving here from CA who can't believe how cheap it is..."You mean, I can get 4500 sq feet on a half acre for $1.2M!?!?!?! I'll pay $100K over asking price, cash...I'm selling my 1900 sq foot on a 1/8th of acre for $1.5M". Meanwhile, native Utahans are dying from sticker shock.

Whenever someone says "prices cant go much higher, this isn't sustainable"...I point them to CA, or New England or Seattle (or a bunch of other markets significantly more expensive than this one)..."Actually, Yes, yes they can get much higher...and it is sustainable." It's all a matter of perspective.

Home mortgages are, historically, the last thing people don't pay...you'll see Americans eliminating expenses (subscription services, car wash membership, gym membership, etc.), reducing expenses (selling toys, selling cars, etc. etc.) to compensate for the increased cost of food, gas, etc. from inflation...They would default on their credit cards, default on car/toy loans long before they will just walk away from the mortgage (and all that equity) and be forced to rent.

Sure, some might feel the stress and try and sell to get their equity to pay off debt...but if that doesn't happen, they will fight to save their homes...so...as long as their mortgage payment doesn't skyrocket (which, they won't) and they can keep their jobs, people, largely, will keep paying their mortgages.
Back when I worked for a city planning department, I heard a lot of complaints about property taxes.

My first question was if they would be willing to sell at the assessed value that the property was being taxed at?

That would usually cut the nonsense, and allow the meaningful discussions to begin.

1
11/10/2022 7:33am
The crash to watch is short term rentals. A lot of houses were listed on air bnb and vrbo type sites over the last 2 years. This dried up inventory and makes sense when you consider what could’ve caused a housing shortage during the last 2 years. The birth rate was low during Covid and housing shortages were high even in the exodus markets of major coast cities. The price was a supply push, not a demand pull.

It looks like the short term rental market is about to crash, at least according to people who study it for a living. This should free up inventory that will convert to long term rental or end up for sale. The housing prices will correct and, hopefully, the ratio of underwater mortgages to healthy mortgages won’t be high enough to cause a meltdown in the financial markets.
fourfourone
Posts
3043
Joined
10/14/2017
Location
86oh, CT US
11/10/2022 9:12am
I'm in the same position too. I'd like not to take out a mortgage on the house, but I have to do it. We are tired...
I'm in the same position too. I'd like not to take out a mortgage on the house, but I have to do it. We are tired of not having our own family place. My wife and I have two kids. And I consider myself responsible for buying a house belonging to us and not to some guy from a neighboring state. I think buying a house is an important investment. You should not wait for lower prices. That's not going to happen. Judging by the forecasts I read on timthomas.co, the real estate market will become a crazy place, and then it will crash. I don't know how it will happen. But the constant rise in prices will someday lead to a lack of buyers.
A slowdown is already happening up in the northeast.

Huge percentage of buyers are backing out due to the quick rise in rates.

OfCourse there are exceptions but, in most cases, houses are selling at asking price or close to it. Houses are staying on the market longer and aren't having the crazy 50k over asking bidding wars.



Zycki11
Posts
7698
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
Edwardsville, IL US
11/10/2022 9:31am
The crash to watch is short term rentals. A lot of houses were listed on air bnb and vrbo type sites over the last 2 years...
The crash to watch is short term rentals. A lot of houses were listed on air bnb and vrbo type sites over the last 2 years. This dried up inventory and makes sense when you consider what could’ve caused a housing shortage during the last 2 years. The birth rate was low during Covid and housing shortages were high even in the exodus markets of major coast cities. The price was a supply push, not a demand pull.

It looks like the short term rental market is about to crash, at least according to people who study it for a living. This should free up inventory that will convert to long term rental or end up for sale. The housing prices will correct and, hopefully, the ratio of underwater mortgages to healthy mortgages won’t be high enough to cause a meltdown in the financial markets.
It will start with the short term rentals, but the irony is that IF it collects the longer term Air BNBs etc it will cause a large portion to jump into short term rentals. This is a wild place to be in with this market to say the least. I am patiently waiting on this crash so homes are at a relative cost as well as rental properties. This will yield the most upside long term and when you refinance for lower apr. Exciting times
crowe660
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2267
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Location
US
11/10/2022 10:33am
Just a heads up…
1
Titan1
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9409
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2/3/2010
Location
Lehi, UT US
11/10/2022 11:37am
Another way to avoid high mortgage rates...leverage a 2/1 or 3/2/1 buydown...the cost of the buy down is paid by the seller (easy to negotiate in this housing market)...and on a 2/1 the first year rate is 2% below the note rate, second year 1% below the note rate, 3rd year and the rest of the loan the note rate...3/2/1 year 1 is 3% below the note rate, year 2 is 2% below the note rate, year three 1% below the note rate...year 4 and on at the note rate.

Rates will go down with inflation (the CPI today dropped rates nearly .75%)...so get the seller to pay the cost of the buydown...and you could be paying rates in the 3's or 4's fir the first year or two of your loan...and then refinance before it ever gets to the note rate.
2

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