The Ukraine is in a tight spot

Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 11:04am
Boomslang wrote:
There is a damn good chance the their resources are running lean. The production line is sweating to keep up.....
If you look up their quantity of military equipment they barely used 1/10 of what they have. But maybe hes paranoid because he has lost a couple of hundred vehicles and want’s the production to be able to stock up again incase someone would attack them and they would be ”low” on equipment.
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Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 11:07am
JJO741 wrote:
One thing this conflict has shown, is that the Russian military is not nearly as strong as people thought they were. That is in no way...
One thing this conflict has shown, is that the Russian military is not nearly as strong as people thought they were. That is in no way to take away from the resistance the Ukrainian military or its people, it’s just most people thought the Russians were an almighty force. Their tactics have been questionable at best so far snd they’re being exploited.
That’s exactly what some minister in our finnish defense said in the news today. That we have overestimated Russia’s ability in war.
Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 11:13am
BUT it feels like the Russian soldiers half-assed it on purpouse since they don’t want to fight alot of their relatives living in Ukraine. Maybe it would look totally different if they attacked us Finns.

The Shop

tuggy450
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3/4/2022 11:24am
Won't matter, sanctions isolating Russia and other countries supporting them will eventually work IMO. If enough countries are serious about it, then Russia will come to the table. I'm guessing Putin felt it was worth the risks involved. Take over land surrounding the Black sea, sea of Azov and drill baby drill. It's all about the Benjamins and power that comes along with it.
Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 11:43am
tuggy450 wrote:
Won't matter, sanctions isolating Russia and other countries supporting them will eventually work IMO. If enough countries are serious about it, then Russia will come to...
Won't matter, sanctions isolating Russia and other countries supporting them will eventually work IMO. If enough countries are serious about it, then Russia will come to the table. I'm guessing Putin felt it was worth the risks involved. Take over land surrounding the Black sea, sea of Azov and drill baby drill. It's all about the Benjamins and power that comes along with it.
That is true. Even if they would win the battles they would loose the war. With all the sanctions and having almost the whole world against you is a loss. No country is that big in this world they aren’t dependable on other countries, both import and export.
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SEEMEFIRST
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3/4/2022 12:00pm
What happens to Russia at the end of this?
I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him.

Is there anything that can be done to Putin in the end?
kongols
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3/4/2022 12:02pm
SEEMEFIRST wrote:
What happens to Russia at the end of this? I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him...
What happens to Russia at the end of this?
I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him.

Is there anything that can be done to Putin in the end?
No, if he doesn`t surrender.
early
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3/4/2022 12:02pm
Russia blocked Twitter domestically
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Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 12:06pm Edited Date/Time 3/4/2022 12:07pm
What i’ve heard they have started collecting evidence on war crimes against him. But i don’t think he would let the world take him down being guilty of war crimes. He has too much pride and thinks he’s to big of a world leader to get convicted for that.
billyslad
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3/4/2022 12:08pm
There seems to be a strength of public opinion here in uk that sanctions should go further and a lot of companies taking it into their own hands with supermarkets no longer selling Russian vodka for eg
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Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 12:11pm
billyslad wrote:
There seems to be a strength of public opinion here in uk that sanctions should go further and a lot of companies taking it into their...
There seems to be a strength of public opinion here in uk that sanctions should go further and a lot of companies taking it into their own hands with supermarkets no longer selling Russian vodka for eg
Same here in Finland, food stores have taken away Russian products from shelfs, also Russian vodka has been taken off shelfs. And fuel company Teboil has put som sanctions against them.
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flarider
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3/4/2022 12:17pm
SEEMEFIRST wrote:
What happens to Russia at the end of this? I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him...
What happens to Russia at the end of this?
I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him.

Is there anything that can be done to Putin in the end?
That is the big question, Karl.

No one that I have seen or read can see how this goes back to normal. We do however need to start thinking of a way for him to exit.

As for the war crimes, unless his own people arrest him or until he leaves Russia, not much can be done
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indy_maico
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3/4/2022 12:18pm
SEEMEFIRST wrote:
What happens to Russia at the end of this? I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him...
What happens to Russia at the end of this?
I keep hearing about "war crimes" and how Putin has most of the world pissed at him.

Is there anything that can be done to Putin in the end?
It doesn't mean anything.

Bush,Cheney, Rumsfeld and others from that administration were convicted of war crimes back in 2015.

Remember seeing them frog-marched off in chains?

Yeah, me neither.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a35397/bush-cheney-…
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flarider
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3/4/2022 12:20pm
billyslad wrote:
There seems to be a strength of public opinion here in uk that sanctions should go further and a lot of companies taking it into their...
There seems to be a strength of public opinion here in uk that sanctions should go further and a lot of companies taking it into their own hands with supermarkets no longer selling Russian vodka for eg
Americans seem super positive in supporting Ukraine and even more sanctions, but I am not sure if they understand the ramifications of all of this.

That the inflation we have all been struggling with is going to get tougher.

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Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 12:23pm
Is there any type of law or somtehing like that, if you get convicted for war crime you have to step out of your leader thrown?
MikeID
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3/4/2022 12:25pm Edited Date/Time 3/4/2022 12:41pm
The Modern War Institute put up a video yesterday discussing the military, political and economic aspects of the invasion. The military analyst pointed out like above Russia’s limited use of its army in this invasion. He warned that people might be too quick to discount its ability. At about the 24 minute mark is a good overview of the attack. At 01:13:00 is where the notion of drawing conclusions begins.

Operational Assessment of the first week
lestat
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3/4/2022 12:31pm
I think Putin’s biggest mistake was underestimating the worlds resolve in applying sanctions . I believe he thought it would be a cakewalk like Crimea and it would be business as usual in a couple weeks . Big miscalculation . The world stepped up . Anything Russian is absolutely toxic right now and that is not going to change for a long time no matter how this ends . The best solution for Russia the country , is Putin gone .
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indy_maico
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3/4/2022 12:35pm
Sandvik74 wrote:
Is there any type of law or somtehing like that, if you get convicted for war crime you have to step out of your leader thrown?
I think it is up to the laws in the individual countries.

For example, the United States does not recognize the International Criminal Court, and there is no US law that says if a a US citizen is convicted of a war crime in the ICC, that they have to go and bear the consequences in the Hague.

But there is an internal process in the US for a citizen to be convicted of a war crime in a US court.

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billyslad
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3/4/2022 12:36pm
With the supermarkets and public supporting these sanctions and coming up with their own additions it will cause Russia to sit up over time
None of this will help Ukraine in the immediate term and I think we are in for a global recession
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early
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3/4/2022 12:49pm
Quite the admission here by Scott Scheffield CEO of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources.

"Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has also called for sanctions, and said on Thursday that American companies “can basically produce whatever needs to be produced”.

But Sheffield said America’s shale oil patch — hampered by supply chain constraints and demands from Wall Street that operators use their oil price windfall to pay dividends rather than drill more wells — would take many months to sharply boost output."

"Russia exported about 5mn barrels a day of crude oil before it invaded Ukraine last month. While China might still absorb some of that volume in the case of a western embargo, there would still be a significant supply shortfall. “We need to add probably two, two and a half million barrels a day,” Sheffield said. But he warned that an accelerated drilling campaign would require investors’ blessing. “We’d have to go to our shareholder base and ask what their thoughts are,” he said."

https://www.ft.com/content/1b517f6d-9056-41ba-9d1e-324e495b5041?sharety…
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Falcon
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3/4/2022 12:53pm
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing economic sanctions of the treaty of Versailles. Broke ass country with a lot of soldiers = war of conquest to survive.
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flarider
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3/4/2022 12:55pm
Falcon wrote:
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing...
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing economic sanctions of the treaty of Versailles. Broke ass country with a lot of soldiers = war of conquest to survive.
Agreed, but I don't think Putin has the will of the people that Germany had at the time, a high state of nationalism
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3/4/2022 1:09pm
Falcon wrote:
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing...
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing economic sanctions of the treaty of Versailles. Broke ass country with a lot of soldiers = war of conquest to survive.
flarider wrote:
Agreed, but I don't think Putin has the will of the people that Germany had at the time, a high state of nationalism
He (or whoever’s next) will if we create it. I think that’s falcon’s point.

Putin is 69 years old and probably won’t be in charge more than 10 years out. He’ll likely start grooming (if he hasn’t already) a successor within the next five years. Even if that’s not his plan, Russia is going to be a power vacuum within 2 decades under any scenario and if the interim is characterized by economic turmoil due to punishing sanctions from the west, we may end up with a scenario that looks a lot like Germany in the 20s and 30s.
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indy_maico
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3/4/2022 1:09pm
early wrote:
Quite the admission here by Scott Scheffield CEO of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources. "Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has also called for...
Quite the admission here by Scott Scheffield CEO of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources.

"Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has also called for sanctions, and said on Thursday that American companies “can basically produce whatever needs to be produced”.

But Sheffield said America’s shale oil patch — hampered by supply chain constraints and demands from Wall Street that operators use their oil price windfall to pay dividends rather than drill more wells — would take many months to sharply boost output."

"Russia exported about 5mn barrels a day of crude oil before it invaded Ukraine last month. While China might still absorb some of that volume in the case of a western embargo, there would still be a significant supply shortfall. “We need to add probably two, two and a half million barrels a day,” Sheffield said. But he warned that an accelerated drilling campaign would require investors’ blessing. “We’d have to go to our shareholder base and ask what their thoughts are,” he said."

https://www.ft.com/content/1b517f6d-9056-41ba-9d1e-324e495b5041?sharety…
There is a big push by Wall Street investors for oil companies to lobby Washington to lift the sanctions on Venezuela to allow them to bring that oil in.

That would be more than enough to offset anything that they have been buying from Russia.
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early
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3/4/2022 1:16pm
indy_maico wrote:
There is a big push by Wall Street investors for oil companies to lobby Washington to lift the sanctions on Venezuela to allow them to bring...
There is a big push by Wall Street investors for oil companies to lobby Washington to lift the sanctions on Venezuela to allow them to bring that oil in.

That would be more than enough to offset anything that they have been buying from Russia.
Saw a figure yesterday of 10,000 issued but unused federal drilling permits. The US oil output constraint is BS.
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jjavaman
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3/4/2022 1:17pm
Falcon wrote:
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing...
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing economic sanctions of the treaty of Versailles. Broke ass country with a lot of soldiers = war of conquest to survive.
flarider wrote:
Agreed, but I don't think Putin has the will of the people that Germany had at the time, a high state of nationalism
If you think Americans love their country and would fight till their last breath, the defenders of mother Russia would make them look like Girl Scouts. They’ve had their land invaded before(remember Stalingrad)and had to sacrifice almost everything, if the internal propaganda makes them feel like it’s all or nothing (Russia has banned outside news reports,Facebook,Twitter etc) this could explode.
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flarider
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3/4/2022 1:28pm Edited Date/Time 3/4/2022 1:34pm
Falcon wrote:
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing...
The world should be careful about how much pressure we apply to economic sanctions. Remember that Germany's initial WW2 ambitions were all about remediating the crushing economic sanctions of the treaty of Versailles. Broke ass country with a lot of soldiers = war of conquest to survive.
flarider wrote:
Agreed, but I don't think Putin has the will of the people that Germany had at the time, a high state of nationalism
jjavaman wrote:
If you think Americans love their country and would fight till their last breath, the defenders of mother Russia would make them look like Girl Scouts...
If you think Americans love their country and would fight till their last breath, the defenders of mother Russia would make them look like Girl Scouts. They’ve had their land invaded before(remember Stalingrad)and had to sacrifice almost everything, if the internal propaganda makes them feel like it’s all or nothing (Russia has banned outside news reports,Facebook,Twitter etc) this could explode.
I do believe that if Russia stormed our shores, you'd see the real "woke America" fighting back harder than the Ukrainians are

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lestat
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3/4/2022 1:29pm
Here’s a story that shows just how successful Putin’s propaganda has been . This is why wide spread sanctions are important . If the peoples lively hood suddenly disappears they will be forced to confront the situation and maybe , just maybe , ask questions about the actions of their government .


Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487


They travelled to Hungary, where Mykhailo left his wife and children and came back to Western Ukraine to help the war effort.

He was surprised not to have heard from his father, who works at a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. He called his father and described what was happening. His father replied that this wasn't true; there was no war and - in fact - Russians were saving Ukraine from Nazis.

Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated
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Sandvik74
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3/4/2022 1:43pm
I’m really worried all this is gonna affect rest of the EU real hard and take us normal sallary working people to our knees too. Prices are already sky rocketing, diesel is now here 2,03€/liter and pump gas 2,13€/liter, what that translate to your US system im not sure since you use gallon. And they have warned interest rates on house loans could also sky rocket.
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