Posts
33
Joined
4/1/2008
Location
USA
Edited Date/Time
1/20/2012 5:41pm
Like most of you I would I imagine, I've really been enjoying this year's supercross series. I've also been following some of the RD vs RV threads, and their informed (and sometimes not so informed) opinions.
In that spirit, and just for fun, I ran a little analysis of the riders who are currently in the top eight in points this year after the first 12 rounds. Using the AMA's website and their individual race lap chart report, I compared each riders position at the end of lap one with their finish position. I know this analysis isn't perfect as a lot can happen between the first corner and the end of the first lap, but am unfortunately limited by the data in this case.
Ryan Dungey - 1st in points: RD has gotten great starts this year and almost always moves forward. Amazingly, the only two races where his finish position was worse than his end of lap one position were Anaheim 1 where he was beaten by Stewart (no shame there) and San Fransisco where he had a crash. Looking at these stats, it's no wonder he is currently leading in the points.
http://i133.photobucket.com/...kool/Misc/Dungey.jpg
Ryan Villopoto - 2nd in points: Similar to Dungey, RV has almost always moved forward throughout the course of the races so far this year. In fact, if you minus RV's Atlanta results where he crashed on his own, but was surely hampered by that dirt in his muffler, RV has the highest positive position difference by far of the other riders in the top eight. This is somewhat contrary to the often times stated opinion that "RV can't pass on tight tracks". Other than that Atlanta deal, what has been hurting RV the most this year?...his erratic starts. It does seem true that when RV starts good, he finishes good. And when he starts not so good, he finishes just okay.
http://i133.photobucket.com/...l/Misc/Villopoto.jpg
In that spirit, and just for fun, I ran a little analysis of the riders who are currently in the top eight in points this year after the first 12 rounds. Using the AMA's website and their individual race lap chart report, I compared each riders position at the end of lap one with their finish position. I know this analysis isn't perfect as a lot can happen between the first corner and the end of the first lap, but am unfortunately limited by the data in this case.
Ryan Dungey - 1st in points: RD has gotten great starts this year and almost always moves forward. Amazingly, the only two races where his finish position was worse than his end of lap one position were Anaheim 1 where he was beaten by Stewart (no shame there) and San Fransisco where he had a crash. Looking at these stats, it's no wonder he is currently leading in the points.
http://i133.photobucket.com/...kool/Misc/Dungey.jpg
Ryan Villopoto - 2nd in points: Similar to Dungey, RV has almost always moved forward throughout the course of the races so far this year. In fact, if you minus RV's Atlanta results where he crashed on his own, but was surely hampered by that dirt in his muffler, RV has the highest positive position difference by far of the other riders in the top eight. This is somewhat contrary to the often times stated opinion that "RV can't pass on tight tracks". Other than that Atlanta deal, what has been hurting RV the most this year?...his erratic starts. It does seem true that when RV starts good, he finishes good. And when he starts not so good, he finishes just okay.
http://i133.photobucket.com/...l/Misc/Villopoto.jpg
Davi Millsaps - 4th in points: Super interesting. Millsaps is actually the only rider in the top eight whose average finish position is actually worse, than his average end of lap one position. In fact, Davi has gone backwards in half the races so far this year. He's also the only other rider besides RV, RD and JS to actually win a 450 main event so far this year.
I watch SportSCenter a lot, and they have the most amazingly useless stats like: first player to record a 25+ 13+ 12+ triple double under the age of 25 at home in the second week of February. But, they do have a ton of stats and things like this, and while some of it is completely irrelevant, the majority of it makes it very interesting.
Thanks brofessor.
Justin Brayton - 6th in points: After a bit of a wobbly start, Brayton has been solid so far this season. In fact, since Anaheim II he has been able to hold onto or improve his end of lap one position in every race except for Daytona, where I think he had a crash. It does seem though, that Brayton could improve upon his starts. He's only started as high as 5th in two out the 12 races so far this year.
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Nick Wey - 8th in points: Maybe factory bikes really do make a difference. While not day and night dramatic, Wey's overall average finishes did tick up an average of almost three full positions when he was riding Reed's idle bike.
all of them here:
Anchors vs Chargers
oh, and for you tommy hahn fans..... my rider of the year
Trey Canard: Like almost every other rider in the top eight in points this season, Trey finishes the races on average in a better position than he comes around in at the end of lap one. What's even more impressive is that with the exception of Indianapolis, his starts have been pretty good too so that means that Trey's passes are coming against some of the bigger, more established names in the sport (i.e. he's not moving from 20th to 12th in the main events).
Dang, sorry man. I didn't know that you were compiling all of these stats already. This is great!
I like how you go all the way down through the pack. Anchors and chargers...that's awesome. -Neil
yea, i got everyone's overtaking stats from throughout the year... it's a lil boring but i get kinda OCD about it, plus i've got a good system now
The one that jumps out to me is KW. That guy used to be amazing off the gate. I guess time has caught up with him on the starts. Still super smooth and fun to watch...and fast enough to be a player.
eg.... tommy hahn has overtaken 57 riders this year... how much publicity has he received?
stats are just a fun way of looking a bit more in-depth into something..... QB ratings, RBI's, distance covered, 3pt percentage..... what does mx have?......
You're absolutely right. I only put this stuff together for fun, and to give us all something to chew on and bicker back and forth over, during these next two weeks.
I think your point about stats being potentially deceiving would be especially apt in the case of a rider like Mike Alessi. Without having done any analysis on his supercross results from last season at all, I'd be willing to bet he has a relatively large and negative difference value between his average end of first lap position and his average overall finish position. Yet, we all know MA is an awesome rider and brings a ton of on-track publicity and exposure to his sponsors in supercross. He just happens to be an amazing starter and I would bet, has the lowest average end of lap one position of any other rider by far.
Thanks for the comments everyone. -Neil
Pretty much shows that regardless of start, people finish pretty consistently. Wey is a good example. Get's the holeshot and still ends up near 10th. Gets a crappy start and moves forward. Good start and moves backwards.
mudflaps and KW seem to be the most inconsistent. Probably best to do at the end of the season, but you could look at the standard deviation for each rider's finishing position. That might be interesting.
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