no like IKE

Looks like Ike might clobber the crap out of Cuba

This one may suck.

Usually the best thing you can hope for is to have it headed straight at you 4 or 5 days ahead of time, cause those bitches never go where they predict they are going to go. Gustav bucked that trend though. Went exactly where they predicted 4 days ahead.
Just got back home yesterday, now I might be back on the evac trail by Tuesday or Wednesday.

ESPECIALLY WITH THIS ONE

There's a ridge coming down through the midwest and everything hinges on its speed and strength.

NHC has been very clear that later window projections, beyond day 3, is highly suspect and to maintain close watch

Called some friends in Jamaica. They said that this one looks bad ass. It needs to stay away we go to visit them in mid October.

caughksukaz

Do you think that perhaps because Gustav didnt turn out to hit N.O. very bad that the evacuation will be seen a little bit like crying wolf and this time many might not evacuate when they really need to?

And how about all the families that might have used all their savings or what they could borrow just for gas and lodging last week?

This one could be coming at an extra bad time. not that theres ever a good time.

Yes.
and since they made people wait outside the city after the storm had passed for up to two days, they'll never be able to evacuate like that again.

I agree the timing is bad, and a majority of folks wont evacuate this time. But why is this alluva sudden the Governments problem? I grew up in Corpus Christi - we had hurricanes ALL the time thru the 60s and 70s. Those storms devastated the Coastal Bend and nobody got help for anything. Destruction everywhere and people just dealt with it and made due. How is it that Americans have dealt with hurricanes all these decades and outta nowhere people hafta be pampered, hauled off and housed, fed, and treated like wards of the state?

come on up to N. TX Thumpa...you can paint a mural for me...

Thumpa may luck out
Looks like the ridge is going to beat Ike and force him more W/SW

NOLA will probably be spared

If it's a decent size (Cat. 3 or so) and headed anywhere near us, people are still going to evacuate. One of my assistants who lives near my office got hit pretty good by Gustav despite it hitting a good 75 miles away from my office in St. Bernard Parish (just on the edge of N.O. and a few miles from the lower 9th ward that made all the dramatic news for Katrina). They clocked gusts up to 107 mph in St. Bernard, and her house took some decent roof damage, resulting in part of the ceiling caving in, water damage to the flooring and walls, etc. Also, full power won't be restored for up to a week and a half in the area. People don't want to stay for that if just a glancing blow from a Cat. 2 can mess you up that much. My assistant got married 2 days before Katrina hit (in fact we went to her wedding, stopped on the way home to load the van, and continued on for our evacuation for that one). Her home she had just moved into was destroyed, along with all of her wedding gifts, etc. Her and her husband are in their early 20's, and were just getting back on track and getting their house restored back to normal, and now they have to deal with all the new damage from Gustav.
Likewise, don't know if any of you caught Geraldo's coverage on Fox News with the overtopping of the levee and flood wall on the upper 9th ward side of the Industrial Canal, along with some barges and ships that broke loose. We were REAL close to seeing major flooding in New Orleans again. Watching the footage, couldn't believe the floodwall held there.
If Ike is anywhere close to here, people are getting the hell out of here, albeit reluctantly.
Hope it continues west.

thumpa, good luck....I went to school at SLU from early 92 to late 94....Was in the LANG and drilled at Jackson Barracks in Arabi....Still have many friends down there...

Hope it misses you guys!!!

May be headed toward us here in Houston. Hopefully, most Houstonians learned in Rita that the only people who should evacuate are those who live near the coast. I just went down and bought a bunch of plywood to board up if it's coming.

4pm sunday 9/7

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

If you look at those last two satellite loops, it appears as if Ike is taking on a more WNW movement, that is bad for the keys as well as makes the northerly models correct...and they head towards the central gulf to FL panhandle

Also, it puts the Florida Keys at a BIG RISK

Keep an eye on it
It could be just a wobble.
Or maybe not

Yeah, I just noticed the same thing on the Weather Channel. Its just in that last loop that you can see the change of direction.

Man Cuba is gonna get clobbered no matter what tract it takes. They were showing the topography of that west end of Cuba where its all mountainous. Then they mention up to 20" of rain. Well 20" in the mountains means was shitload of water coming down hill. Not a pretty picuture.
Also....Think I heard like 85% of the homes on Grand Turk? Island we damaged.

Yeah, Grand Turk got hammered
Be interesting to see pics from there

That change could be a wobble, but if not, that's bad

BTW, here in Houston, we've been getting our first few days of drier air, which normally means we're less likely to get real bad storms. That's when I start breathing a little easier. It's not a foolproof sign, but it's generally true.

Cool - my office is right on Judge Perez in Chalmette, just a few minutes from Jackson Barracks. In fact, my assistant who got married 2 days before Katrina got married at the Barracks.


Those little wobbles can be pretty damn significant. When you look at the waterways down here in Southeastern La., a difference of 20 or 30 miles in where it hits makes a HUGE difference. My dad lives just across the border in Mississippi about 20 miles from me. Though he's about 10 miles inland, the Katrina storm surge came right through Bay St. Louis and up the Jordan River where his home sits, so the water came up about 25 feet. If Katrina hit 20-30 miles to the west of where it did, that same surge could have come through Lake Borgne and up the Pearl River, right where my home sits. I stayed dry for Katrina, but the Corps of Engineers said a small shift would have meant about 6 feet of water in our house.
So those slight little jogs can make a major difference in where it goes days later.
I'm all over the weather sites watching the models, satellite images, and NHC discussion every time something comes up. The crap they give you on the news about the one-line projected path doesn't tell you shit when it comes down to it. Much better to watch the major half dozen computer models and the NHC discussion to see what is steering it.

I'm all over the weather sites watching the models, satellite images, and NHC discussion every time something comes up. The crap they give you on the news about the one-line projected path doesn't tell you shit when it comes down to it. Much better to watch the major half dozen computer models and the NHC discussion to see what is steering it.

Smart man
Try www.flhurricane.com

Lot of real meteorologists, experts, hobbyists and yes, idiots
But once you figure out who knows their shit, you'll be days ahead of NHC

Hurricane activity cycles
Nothing new

Flarider your pic looks like wolf boy from ball licker country.

You joined just to say that?

YA LOOKS LIKE YOU MUST BE THE SMARTIEST PERSON ON THIS SITE BY THE LOOKS OF ALL YOUR POSTS

Nah, that's xewbx