Whoa, this just got more interesting! After Jett Lawrence's disastrous 1st-lap crash, Chase Sexton capitalized and smoked the field with 1-1 scores at Hangtown.
Chase was poised to win a moto at some point soon, and with Jett slightly injured there may be a shift in the power dynamics at the top of the 450 class. Will Chase pick up momentum with this win, or will the fact that he won without his toughest competition weigh on his mind? Can Jett spring back to winning form, or will it take weeks of struggle and careful healing?
I won't try to analyze championship scenarios just yet - there are too many factors to consider - but what are some of the overall scenarios that could play out? Let's start with Chase and Jett. Sexton holds a 24-point lead with 18 motos to go. If Jett goes back to 1-1 moto scores, it would still take 4 weekends for him to tie on points with Chase, assuming Sexton takes 2nd in all those motos. Naturally, if Chase beats Jett in only a few motos, the time frame will stretch out longer. It's not impossible to think that Sexton can hold the red plate all summer, or at least stretch it out until the last race.
Hunter Lawrence could also play a big part in this championship. He has proven he can beat the rest of the field and could steal points from Sexton and his little brother.
Don't forget about Aaron Plessinger, Justin Cooper and Jason Anderson, who are only a few points back from Hunter.
Injuries or inconsistency could change the tides for any of these riders and we'll have to wait and see what happens. The biggest unknown is Jett Lawrence right now. Can he rebound, and if so, how quickly?
RC4, rookie 250 year, footpeg injury. Like shark teeth for grip. Also like shark teeth anytime they get near your skin. Ran one up my shin one time. Ouch!
How does this add to the equation ?
stolen from another thread-
Jett’s streak ended at 24 & 0 , ended up 24th in moto 1 & now 24 pts back to chase
Its the year ‘24 and Hunter went 2-4 and is 24 years old
Now you're getting into that Talor Swift numerology we had to listen to all over the news before the Super Bowl lol
TM
All things considered, those are big ass muscles that a footpeg can do some serious damage. I think several weeks to get where the pain reduces to allow riding at the level he needs to ride to beat Chase. That could be just long enough for Chase to gain the confidence he needs to battle a 100% Jett. We could get deep into the season before the points gap closes. I'm still firmly in the Jett band wagon but this is a big setback.
TM
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Apparently or at least according to ML's interview with Lars, Jett will be back to normal next week. His footpeg never ate into the tissue but was more like a sweet donkey bite.
It's going to be a good summer....
If Chase wins 6 motos, Jett wins the rest, and the other guy always finishes second, chase wins the championship. That's the number I have in my head. Can Chase win 6 more motos?
Chase gotta win now whilst Jett is caught on his hind leg....
I think you're right.
18 motos remaining; Jett would need to win 8 in a row to tie Chase. There would be 10 motos remaining after that, and whoever won 6 of them would have the points advantage. (Assuming 1-2 finishes by both parties, as you mentioned.)
I think from a statistical standpoint, we'll see Chase have at least one bad moto. Chase needs to capitalize right now, while he has some momentum.
Don't forget 2+4 is 6 and Jett finished 6th in moto 2!
I noticed last year when I called Chase to win the SX championship it was 2023, he was number 23 and he was 23 years old lol.
2 dozen doughnuts is 24. 2 brother got beat number 4…
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