Eli Tomac Returns for 2024

RichieW13
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RichieW13 7/27/2023 9:10am
7/27/2023 9:10am
decano51 wrote:
glad he's coming back! i hope the injury doesn't set him back too far.   Its funny tho, AMA starting to look like the 30+ class...

glad he's coming back! i hope the injury doesn't set him back too far.

 

Its funny tho, AMA starting to look like the 30+ class at lorettas.

Be interested to see the stats. Is the the oldest line up of racers ever? considering majority of the top 15 are just about 30? 

My data is a little spotty, but I'm pretty confident that 2020 had the oldest lineup, the specific race with the oldest main event was June 7, 2020 with an average age of  29.2 years.

Sorted by age on race day:

Chad Reed, 38.3

Justin Brayton, 36.3

Martin Davalos, 33.4

Kyle Chisholm, 32.5

Zach Osborne, 31.1

Kyle Cunningham, 30.9

Broc Tickle, 30.6

Vince Friese, 29.7

Tyler Bowers, 29.2

Dean Wilson, 28.5

Blake Baggett, 28.4

Justin Barcia, 28.2

Malcolm Stewart, 27.6

Eli Tomac, 27.6

Jason Anderson, 27.3

Ken Roczen, 26.1

Justin Hill, 25.1

Cooper Webb, 24.7

Aaron Plessinger, 24.4

Benny Bloss, 23.2

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RichieW13
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RichieW13 7/27/2023 11:34am
7/27/2023 11:34am

I calculated a possible starting lineup for round one in 2024 that would beat that lineup from 2020:

Kyle Chisholm, 36.1

Josh Hill, 34.5

Marvin Musquin, 34.0

Christian Craig, 32.5

Dean Wilson, 32.0

Justin Barcia, 31.8

Malcolm Stewart, 31.2

Eli Tomac, 31.2

Jason Anderson, 30.9

Joey Savatgy, 29.9

Ken Roczen, 29.7

Dylan Ferrandis, 29.6

Shane McElrath, 29.4

Justin Hill, 28.7

Cooper Webb, 28.3

Aaron Plessinger, 28.0

Adam Cianciarulo, 27.2

Benny Bloss, 26.8

Justin Cooper, 26.4

Hunter Lawrence, 24.4

Chase Sexton, 24.3

Jett Lawrence, 20.4

 

Average: 29.4

Crazy to think it's possible that Jett Lawrence could be the youngest rider on the starting line by nearly 4 years.

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Herr Lich
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Herr Lich 7/27/2023 3:37pm
7/27/2023 3:37pm Edited Date/Time 7/27/2023 5:14pm
wnorton729 wrote:
Crazy on how stacked the 450 class will be next year.    Sexton, Tomac, Webb, Lawrence bros, Barcia, Roczen, Anderson could all very easily be race...

Crazy on how stacked the 450 class will be next year. 
 

Sexton, Tomac, Webb, Lawrence bros, Barcia, Roczen, Anderson could all very easily be race winners. All of them are arguably championship contenders. 
 

Ap, Ferrandis, mookie, Wilson, Hill, Craig, ciancarulo. That right there off the top of my head is 15 riders. A lot of guys are going to be getting there feelings hurt this coming up season.

 

Herr Lich wrote:
There's no way that Barcia and Roczen will be championship contenders.  Barcia's into his 30s and has never won more than three supercross races in a...

There's no way that Barcia and Roczen will be championship contenders.  Barcia's into his 30s and has never won more than three supercross races in a season - and that was in 2013.  Roczen is also entering his twilight years. I would put Webb and Anderson in this bracket also.  Despite everyone hyping up Webb's season last year he still only won two supercross races.  Anderson won no races (apart from a triple crown race/moto) and looked off most of the year.  History shows that the championship winner almost always wins six or more in a season.  It's hard to say how Hunter will do at this stage.

Championship contenders will be Jett, Eli and Chase - in that order. 

vdrsnk04 wrote:
When Jason Anderson won his 450 sx title he finished 1st place 4 of 17 rounds. Cooper Webb was right there to win sx this year...

When Jason Anderson won his 450 sx title he finished 1st place 4 of 17 rounds.

Cooper Webb was right there to win sx this year before he was injured and he had only 2 wins.

In racing, actually anything in life, it isn’t about the wins, it’s about consistency and limiting the bad results. There is a saying that says, winners lose more than losers lose and it is very true.
 

I’d still put Webb/Anderson/Tomac up there to get the title again.

You'll see that I included Eli as one of the three title threats for 2024.  As for supercross win patterns:

2011. RV. 6 wins.
2012. RV. 9 wins.
2013. RV. 10 wins.
2014. RV. 7 wins. 
2015. Dunge. 8 wins.
2016. Dunge. 9 wins. 
2017. Dunge. 3 wins.
2018. Anderson. 4 wins. 
2019. Webb. 7 wins.
2020. Tomac. 7 wins.
2021. Webb. 8 wins.
2022. Tomac. 7 wins. 
2023. Sexton. 6 wins. 
 

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TDeath21
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TDeath21 7/27/2023 4:56pm
7/27/2023 4:56pm

I wouldn’t blame him if he doesn’t, but I’d love to see him commit to the nationals too. Something tells me this might be like Reed’s crash in 2012. He said he was strongly considering retiring after that season, but then after that, he didn’t want it to end that way, then raced another 8 years. 

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Chris_Buehler
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Chris_Buehler 7/27/2023 4:59pm
7/27/2023 4:59pm
wnorton729 wrote:
Crazy on how stacked the 450 class will be next year.    Sexton, Tomac, Webb, Lawrence bros, Barcia, Roczen, Anderson could all very easily be race...

Crazy on how stacked the 450 class will be next year. 
 

Sexton, Tomac, Webb, Lawrence bros, Barcia, Roczen, Anderson could all very easily be race winners. All of them are arguably championship contenders. 
 

Ap, Ferrandis, mookie, Wilson, Hill, Craig, ciancarulo. That right there off the top of my head is 15 riders. A lot of guys are going to be getting there feelings hurt this coming up season.

 

Herr Lich wrote:
There's no way that Barcia and Roczen will be championship contenders.  Barcia's into his 30s and has never won more than three supercross races in a...

There's no way that Barcia and Roczen will be championship contenders.  Barcia's into his 30s and has never won more than three supercross races in a season - and that was in 2013.  Roczen is also entering his twilight years. I would put Webb and Anderson in this bracket also.  Despite everyone hyping up Webb's season last year he still only won two supercross races.  Anderson won no races (apart from a triple crown race/moto) and looked off most of the year.  History shows that the championship winner almost always wins six or more in a season.  It's hard to say how Hunter will do at this stage.

Championship contenders will be Jett, Eli and Chase - in that order. 

wnorton729 wrote:

I believe you missed the key word… Arguably.

So you would argue for Barcia being a contender? OK make your argument.  Let's hear it

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