3rd wave down coming soon...

Motodude
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Edited Date/Time 1/27/2012 11:40am
Next big drop is coming for the stock market.
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Rooster
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7/12/2009 12:52am
It's either going to break through the trend or it's going to dive again.

We'll see what earnings come through with and that should decide where it goes.

I still think we're bound to see 5000 on the dow. Of course if I was any good at this shit I've have far for dough than I do now.
Motodude
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7/12/2009 3:39am
The 3rd wave is always the strongest and most significant step...earnings have been shit, unemployment hase been steadily growing depsite the bounce (wave 2) that started back in March. New data will only confirm the change in mood to drive the Dow toward 3500 or lower toward 1500. Ready???
flarider
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7/12/2009 5:40am
WhKnuckle
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7/12/2009 6:04am
Motodude wrote:
The 3rd wave is always the strongest and most significant step...earnings have been shit, unemployment hase been steadily growing depsite the bounce (wave 2) that started...
The 3rd wave is always the strongest and most significant step...earnings have been shit, unemployment hase been steadily growing depsite the bounce (wave 2) that started back in March. New data will only confirm the change in mood to drive the Dow toward 3500 or lower toward 1500. Ready???
Lets make a deal - if it doesn't go down below 5000 by the end of the year, will you finally get the fuck out of here?

The Shop

flarider
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7/12/2009 6:13am
Hasn't pretty much all of his "predictions" been wrong?


dougie
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7/12/2009 7:18am
Well anyone with half a brain (that would be me) can easily see that the last rise was all delusional. Sooner or later common sense will prevail and we'll see that big sell off.
Ivan
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7/12/2009 8:32am
dougie wrote:
Well anyone with half a brain (that would be me) can easily see that the last rise was all delusional. Sooner or later common sense will...
Well anyone with half a brain (that would be me) can easily see that the last rise was all delusional. Sooner or later common sense will prevail and we'll see that big sell off.
Irrational exuberance.
09450f
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7/12/2009 12:06pm
gee,doubling the crurrency will do wonders for a value of the dollar
flarider
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7/12/2009 12:12pm
09450f wrote:
gee,doubling the crurrency will do wonders for a value of the dollar
do you ever know what you're talking about?
09450f
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7/12/2009 12:14pm Edited Date/Time 7/12/2009 12:16pm
09450f wrote:
gee,doubling the crurrency will do wonders for a value of the dollar
flarider wrote:
do you ever know what you're talking about?
so you are happy with the doubling of the currency?i swear,i didn't do it..i had nothing to do with the printing machine
Tiki
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7/12/2009 12:27pm
flarider wrote:
Hasn't pretty much all of his "predictions" been wrong?


Pretty much, you don't need to be Kreskin to know that there are still foreclosure issues on both coasts. It was identified over a year ago that the issues would last well into 2010.

What I would really like to see is some of this actual financial advice beyond the sky is falling.

Anyone can claim - Hey next week will be shitty. When its a good week, everyone is happy.
Making a claim like, "invest in WizBang, new information is coming that they are about to release widget 7.2.0 and WalMart just added it to all their stores."

That would be actual financial advice.
Rooster
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7/12/2009 1:43pm
Motodude goes by the charts.

If you look at the two year chart on the dow, it's reached a point where traditionally it will either restart it's downward trend or it will "break out" and keep it upward momentum going.

The other option is it will simply move sideways and form a bottom to the trend.

I don't see the overall strength in the economy to justify any further upward movement. We've been warned there's further bad news to come. I think it's a reasonable prediction. I don't know about 1500-3000, but 5000 isn't out of range. I don't see the employment numbers being that bad to think 3000 and below is possible.

Although if the dollar collapses and the foreign money pulls out he could be on the mark. In that case you won't be worried about Wall Street.

Motodude
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7/12/2009 1:50pm
flarider wrote:
Hasn't pretty much all of his "predictions" been wrong?


Tiki wrote:
Pretty much, you don't need to be Kreskin to know that there are still foreclosure issues on both coasts. It was identified over a year ago...
Pretty much, you don't need to be Kreskin to know that there are still foreclosure issues on both coasts. It was identified over a year ago that the issues would last well into 2010.

What I would really like to see is some of this actual financial advice beyond the sky is falling.

Anyone can claim - Hey next week will be shitty. When its a good week, everyone is happy.
Making a claim like, "invest in WizBang, new information is coming that they are about to release widget 7.2.0 and WalMart just added it to all their stores."

That would be actual financial advice.
I dont do stocks I've told you. But you two brainiacs havent offered one bit of anything except sideline heckling.
flarider
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7/12/2009 1:56pm Edited Date/Time 4/17/2016 12:52am
flarider wrote:
Hasn't pretty much all of his "predictions" been wrong?


Tiki wrote:
Pretty much, you don't need to be Kreskin to know that there are still foreclosure issues on both coasts. It was identified over a year ago...
Pretty much, you don't need to be Kreskin to know that there are still foreclosure issues on both coasts. It was identified over a year ago that the issues would last well into 2010.

What I would really like to see is some of this actual financial advice beyond the sky is falling.

Anyone can claim - Hey next week will be shitty. When its a good week, everyone is happy.
Making a claim like, "invest in WizBang, new information is coming that they are about to release widget 7.2.0 and WalMart just added it to all their stores."

That would be actual financial advice.
Motodude wrote:
I dont do stocks I've told you. But you two brainiacs havent offered one bit of anything except sideline heckling.
Because neither of us are stupid enough to just toss out simplistic guesses just for the sake of guessing at something.

Your guesses are rarely, if ever, correct and are so generic in content that any swing you could point at as your "being correct"


I don't pretend to be an expert, so I don't make market predictions.

You do pretend to be an expert and you don't really make market predictions either...you just toss out negative bullshit and hope some of it sticks
Goride333
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7/12/2009 2:20pm
Obama and Dave have never been seen in the same place...just sayin...
flarider
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7/12/2009 2:27pm
and I'm Black!


Goride333
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7/12/2009 2:30pm
flarider wrote:
and I'm Black!


Well if the two of you are both black and have never been seen in the same place at the same time...I suppose it must have been night time. I will now call you evening. Blink twice so I know it's you.
dougie
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7/12/2009 3:13pm Edited Date/Time 4/17/2016 12:52am
If the S&P has risen 40% from its March lows and then it lost 7% this week does that mean that its up 33% from its March lows? How is that math done?
Motodude
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7/12/2009 4:55pm
dougie wrote:
If the S&P has risen 40% from its March lows and then it lost 7% this week does that mean that its up 33% from its...
If the S&P has risen 40% from its March lows and then it lost 7% this week does that mean that its up 33% from its March lows? How is that math done?
It peaked 40% up from the March low...it is 7% off from that high.

Well, lets hear Flavrider and Tiki give us their take on it, or shall they continue to sit on the sidelines throwing rotten eggs like superior Monday morning quarterbacks.
Tiki
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7/12/2009 7:32pm
Motodude wrote:
Next big drop is coming for the stock market.
Silly me, I was confused by my comprehension of the sentence you posted as the opening of the thread. So...in order for both Flarider and I to toss an egg, we would have to start a post that would include "Said" egg. Dave and I are simply calling bullshit to negative posts that really aren't predictions rather guesses and pot stirring.

Here's my prediction. More foreclosures in Sacramento valley and Las Vegas.
Followed by increase in home sales from the last quarter. I feel comfortable saying this due to the same people that foresaw the issues that we just experienced are pointing this out.

Here is another solid prediction. Market will drop October 1. Why? It does every year. New fiscal year for Federal Spending,Holiday season approaching, lazy business, weather and it has done this for the past 30 years I have been investing in the stock market. WOW come to think of it, hasn't all horrible drops happened in October? O-M-G What are the odds of that guess?

So my advice, be like everyone else and sell off Sept 31 prepare to buy come March 1. Take it for what it is worth. Have fun, invest money you don't mind losing, start small and there is no such thing as a free lunch, quick buck or easy money. Money comes from lost of hard work, motivation, calculated risks and luck respectively.
Motodude
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7/12/2009 8:17pm
'Sell in May and go away' didnt happen this year...

You can say I am making negative comments about what the market is doing, but I have told you this for over 18months now and I have been right.

Its ALSO a time for preperation for the GREAT once in a lifetime opportunities to enter markets at all hostorical lows. I see that as a HUGE positive....

flarider
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7/12/2009 8:27pm
Motodude wrote:
'Sell in May and go away' didnt happen this year... You can say I am making negative comments about what the market is doing, but I...
'Sell in May and go away' didnt happen this year...

You can say I am making negative comments about what the market is doing, but I have told you this for over 18months now and I have been right.

Its ALSO a time for preperation for the GREAT once in a lifetime opportunities to enter markets at all hostorical lows. I see that as a HUGE positive....

No, you haven't been right, not on anything specific...NOTHING

If were going to make general predictions with absolutely NOTHING SPECIFIC, just general comments or predictions that can be done with monkeys and darts, then let's go for it and all be experts, because your "predictions" are as general as the monkey with the darts' prediction

Market will be down tomorrow

WOO WOO!! I AM AN EXPERT!!

End of the month, unemployment will be up again.
DAMN, I AM FUCKING BRILLIANT!!
CR250Rider
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7/12/2009 8:35pm
dropping to 5,000 in october?


flarider
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7/12/2009 8:38pm
Motodude wrote:
Next big drop is coming for the stock market.
Want to be the expert....

Give a day that your above prediction begins, for how long and how low....Let's hear it sport, otherwise you're a full of shit bullshit hack

Give us a DATE, TIME FRAME and MARKET LOSS PERCENTAGE

Motodude
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7/12/2009 9:43pm
Motodude wrote:
Next big drop is coming for the stock market.
flarider wrote:
Want to be the expert.... Give a day that your above prediction begins, for how long and how low....Let's hear it sport, otherwise you're a full...
Want to be the expert....

Give a day that your above prediction begins, for how long and how low....Let's hear it sport, otherwise you're a full of shit bullshit hack

Give us a DATE, TIME FRAME and MARKET LOSS PERCENTAGE

How about you give us some details of what will happen over the next 3 weeks? I'm not predicting, I'm making forecasts of whats to come, that is inhreantly fallable yet gives one a decent idea of whats coming.

I felt the DOW would rise above 9000 since March, but it has failed only getting to almost 8900, which shows it is still VERY bearish. It still might rise but highly doubtful. During the next month resistance will be around the 7800 area.
rubarb
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7/12/2009 10:08pm
Its another pin the tail on the dj...

Waxman-Markey in my opinion will annihilate the US economy.
bullpen58
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7/12/2009 11:06pm
Freakin racism man. That's why there's a recession. Freakin racism.
flarider
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7/13/2009 5:54am
Motodude wrote:
Next big drop is coming for the stock market.
flarider wrote:
Want to be the expert.... Give a day that your above prediction begins, for how long and how low....Let's hear it sport, otherwise you're a full...
Want to be the expert....

Give a day that your above prediction begins, for how long and how low....Let's hear it sport, otherwise you're a full of shit bullshit hack

Give us a DATE, TIME FRAME and MARKET LOSS PERCENTAGE

Motodude wrote:
How about you give us some details of what will happen over the next 3 weeks? I'm not predicting, I'm making forecasts of whats to come...
How about you give us some details of what will happen over the next 3 weeks? I'm not predicting, I'm making forecasts of whats to come, that is inhreantly fallable yet gives one a decent idea of whats coming.

I felt the DOW would rise above 9000 since March, but it has failed only getting to almost 8900, which shows it is still VERY bearish. It still might rise but highly doubtful. During the next month resistance will be around the 7800 area.
I don't pretend to be the expert, you do.

and I love this "I'm not predicting, I'm making forecasts of whats to come"

Um...yeah.....

That is funny


dougie
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7/13/2009 6:31am
dougie wrote:
If the S&P has risen 40% from its March lows and then it lost 7% this week does that mean that its up 33% from its...
If the S&P has risen 40% from its March lows and then it lost 7% this week does that mean that its up 33% from its March lows? How is that math done?
Motodude wrote:
It peaked 40% up from the March low...it is 7% off from that high. Well, lets hear Flavrider and Tiki give us their take on it...
It peaked 40% up from the March low...it is 7% off from that high.

Well, lets hear Flavrider and Tiki give us their take on it, or shall they continue to sit on the sidelines throwing rotten eggs like superior Monday morning quarterbacks.
My question was how high off of last March lows is it today? Obviously its no longer up 40%.

Meridth Whitney was just on an she forecast Unemployment going to 13% and the market in the toilet (my intrepretation of her words) thru 2011.
flarider
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7/13/2009 6:46am
I think 13% unemployment is high, if not scare-mongering
I think it MAY go as high as 11%, likely mid to upper 10's
This is according to many economists and forecasters.
If you look at the numbers, the rate of increase has been slowing over the last few months.
It was all in free fall prior to that, this is part of that slowing train analogy...you're not going to stop unemployment increases overnight, it takes time and is one of the last indicators....everything happens first and then unemployment moves, so if unemployment is slowing, that is a good indicator of other things improving, which the data shows.

Market is going to swing wildly for a while because of emotions and fear until the entire system stabilizes, which will take some time

The "Chicken Little" experts certainly aren't helping anything and are usually proven wrong

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