Market testing the lows from Oct

mikec265
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mikec265 3/26/2020 7:30am
3/26/2020 7:30am
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
I'm going to try and keep what little powder I have left dry for a couple more weeks to see how things play out. I'm not...
I'm going to try and keep what little powder I have left dry for a couple more weeks to see how things play out. I'm not sure this is over yet.
borg wrote:
Nobody is. No matter what they say. My guess is that it will retest the lows at some point but the Dec '18 correction did not...
Nobody is. No matter what they say.
My guess is that it will retest the lows at some point but the Dec '18 correction did not. It was a V bottom. If you blinked you missed it. Different situation though. The reason I think it will bob and weave around these levels is because of the uncertainty of how bad and how long the recession will be. Because China pulled through and Italy is seeing light at the end of the tunnel, virus panic in the market is pretty much done. We're not all going to die. Now it's the economy.
Thursday will be the unemployment initial claims report. Should be a doozy. Might move the markets.
The first Friday of April will have the employment report. Ditto.
Strap in. Quarterlies will be coming but I don't expect they will show the full impact. June quarterlies will.

Sorry for being so wordy, I'm bored as fuck.

Borg, I agree. I don't think it will be a V.
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/26/2020 7:38am
3/26/2020 7:38am Edited Date/Time 3/26/2020 7:40am
It could be that the only numbers that really matter at this point are that people might be seeing light at the end of the tunnel and maybe a belief that things will get back to normal in short order. I think someone should put their big boy pants on and tell America to go back to work sooner than later.
500guy
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500guy 3/26/2020 8:03am
3/26/2020 8:03am Edited Date/Time 3/26/2020 8:07am
I know everyone is effected in different ways over this Covid19 Problem but around here things just started shutting down last week.

The economic impact in my mind is 2-3 weeks from now, I can't see how the market is moving so much just off the news from day to day, it really is just crazy, makes it more like playing casino games vs investing.
smashingpumpkins167 3/26/2020 8:23am
3/26/2020 8:23am
500guy wrote:
I know everyone is effected in different ways over this Covid19 Problem but around here things just started shutting down last week. The economic impact in...
I know everyone is effected in different ways over this Covid19 Problem but around here things just started shutting down last week.

The economic impact in my mind is 2-3 weeks from now, I can't see how the market is moving so much just off the news from day to day, it really is just crazy, makes it more like playing casino games vs investing.
I agree. We have only just begun. But like others have said before. Do we ever really know how the market will react?

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mjr119 3/26/2020 1:10pm
3/26/2020 1:10pm
Can't compete with the Fed propping up the market with money printers. I mean damn, there goes my March profits. Had to cut my losses. They should freeze short positions if they are going to take manipulation to this level. I mean wow, 500 pts at the bell.

factoryfatty
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factoryfatty 3/26/2020 1:21pm
3/26/2020 1:21pm
Could be a bull trap.

Who knows though, there's no fundamentals left anywhere in this market, been that way for a long time. Calling it a market is pretty much a joke.

I'm sure the Fed is in this market buying shares, or at least has their crony banks buying shares. They already buy every category of bonds, ETFs, why the hell not throw shares in there too.

mikec265
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mikec265 3/26/2020 4:21pm
3/26/2020 4:21pm
Anyone watch Mad Money and catch Cramer saying the last 500 point gain was caused by the machines? Idk how that's legal.
borg
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borg 3/27/2020 6:36am
3/27/2020 6:36am
az2u wrote:
FWIW:

Bottom Timers... Start Your Engines


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334256-bottom-timers-start-your-engines

There is the question: Do you assume a new normal of 20+ P/E for the S&P or do you rely on old faithful which is closer to 15? 15 is the average P/E for most of the 20th century. Only since 1990 has this 20+ P/E been the norm. If the market does in fact revert to the old number, we have more pain coming as the article suggests. At $133 average earnings a multiple of 15 means a price about $1900 for the S&P 500.

What changed in 1990?
A few things, Computer trading, many, many more average people getting in, explosion in private and public debt, a very accommodative Fed.

The last one is especially true since 2008. It's really hard to imagine that an economy at full employment and 10 straight years of GDP growth would have the 10 year note at about 1.2%. Add to that, an annual deficit of 1 trillion under those economic numbers.

Either something is really wrong or we have a new normal.

Back to the question: Do you roll with the recent trend? If you do load the boat. If you believe in some reversion to the historical mean? Stay in cash.

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factoryfatty
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factoryfatty 3/27/2020 10:23am
3/27/2020 10:23am
Fed balance sheet numbers came out yesterday. They added 587 billion to there balance sheet in 1 week! That's the same amount as 7 months of QE 3.
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factoryfatty
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factoryfatty 3/27/2020 10:39am
3/27/2020 10:39am
With the dollar fire hose turned on full blast like that the only way this market was going to go was up.
Black Diesel Bomber 3/27/2020 2:31pm
3/27/2020 2:31pm
factoryfatty wrote:
With the dollar fire hose turned on full blast like that the only way this market was going to go was up.
I'm wondering how long they can prop it up for, or do they just keep pumping money into it? It's been all pump and no dump yet except for a little drop today. Crazy that I call 900 point drop a little drop, lol.
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 8:15am
3/30/2020 8:15am
I'm doing a lot of selling today and building up cash. I think shit is getting real at my work today for a lot of people (doesn't appear that I am on the list but hope to know more soon). I anticipate things to go much lower before recovering and will buy back when/if that happens. Just creating a bit of a safety net.
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 8:52am
3/30/2020 8:52am Edited Date/Time 3/30/2020 9:12am
Yep, they just laid off a big chunk at work and although I'm not one of them it sounds like I'll be getting a pay cut. My boss and several really good coworkers are out of a job as of now.
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factoryfatty
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factoryfatty 3/30/2020 9:21am
3/30/2020 9:21am
factoryfatty wrote:
With the dollar fire hose turned on full blast like that the only way this market was going to go was up.
Black Diesel Bomber wrote:
I'm wondering how long they can prop it up for, or do they just keep pumping money into it? It's been all pump and no dump...
I'm wondering how long they can prop it up for, or do they just keep pumping money into it? It's been all pump and no dump yet except for a little drop today. Crazy that I call 900 point drop a little drop, lol.
We're going to find out what the consequences from massive money printing are in the future. It is going to be inflationary for sure but where that inflation shows up is the question. In 08 most of that inflation went into financial assets (as intended), and re-blew up the stock and housing bubble. Peter Schiff and others think that this time instead of inflation going into the stock market it's going into the super market. I think he could be right because in 08 we had a demand side shock, where this time it looks like a supply side shock.

When increased money supply meets a decrease in goods and services you get price inflation. More money chasing less stuff.

Watching the dollar index doesn't really tell the story though because all central banks are doing the same things to their currencies as well so they're all dropping at the same time. About the best barometer we've got is the price of a dollar versus gold. Gold is pretty heavily manipulated down though so it's far from a perfect gauge.

We'll have to see how the Fed's scheme plays out, but if money printing truly worked Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be the richest countries in the world.
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hard2kill
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hard2kill 3/30/2020 9:43am
3/30/2020 9:43am
factoryfatty wrote:
With the dollar fire hose turned on full blast like that the only way this market was going to go was up.
Black Diesel Bomber wrote:
I'm wondering how long they can prop it up for, or do they just keep pumping money into it? It's been all pump and no dump...
I'm wondering how long they can prop it up for, or do they just keep pumping money into it? It's been all pump and no dump yet except for a little drop today. Crazy that I call 900 point drop a little drop, lol.
factoryfatty wrote:
We're going to find out what the consequences from massive money printing are in the future. It is going to be inflationary for sure but where...
We're going to find out what the consequences from massive money printing are in the future. It is going to be inflationary for sure but where that inflation shows up is the question. In 08 most of that inflation went into financial assets (as intended), and re-blew up the stock and housing bubble. Peter Schiff and others think that this time instead of inflation going into the stock market it's going into the super market. I think he could be right because in 08 we had a demand side shock, where this time it looks like a supply side shock.

When increased money supply meets a decrease in goods and services you get price inflation. More money chasing less stuff.

Watching the dollar index doesn't really tell the story though because all central banks are doing the same things to their currencies as well so they're all dropping at the same time. About the best barometer we've got is the price of a dollar versus gold. Gold is pretty heavily manipulated down though so it's far from a perfect gauge.

We'll have to see how the Fed's scheme plays out, but if money printing truly worked Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be the richest countries in the world.
"Watching the dollar index doesn't really tell the story though because all central banks are doing the same things to their currencies as well so they're all dropping at the same time."

This is what i see also. I think the only "good way" to correct this on the other side would be a global currency? or some sort of Crypto perhaps? Possible way out by eating all the debt when rolling the currency? I am no economist by any means and i don't have any idea how those things could possibly work out, just some thoughts...

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XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 12:29pm
3/30/2020 12:29pm
I sold over half of my TD Ameritrade portfolio this morning and moved it into cash.
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borg
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borg 3/30/2020 3:17pm
3/30/2020 3:17pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
I sold over half of my TD Ameritrade portfolio this morning and moved it into cash.
Not a bad hedge when you think about what the market might do when we are hit with a 20% unemployment rate and a similar reduction in GDP. The stock market is not in the Fed's charter although it's hard to tell sometimes. The market loves QE because it lowers interest rates and chases money out of CD's and other "safe investments". Some of it ends up in stocks.
Where are you on TSLA and BA?
factoryfatty
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factoryfatty 3/30/2020 3:27pm
3/30/2020 3:27pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
I sold over half of my TD Ameritrade portfolio this morning and moved it into cash.
borg wrote:
Not a bad hedge when you think about what the market might do when we are hit with a 20% unemployment rate and a similar reduction...
Not a bad hedge when you think about what the market might do when we are hit with a 20% unemployment rate and a similar reduction in GDP. The stock market is not in the Fed's charter although it's hard to tell sometimes. The market loves QE because it lowers interest rates and chases money out of CD's and other "safe investments". Some of it ends up in stocks.
Where are you on TSLA and BA?
Fed's charter?

Who needs that when they can create a "special purpose vehicle", fund it, then buy whatever the hell they feel like.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/23/what-are-all-the-feds-corporate-inves…

How do you think they started buying ETF's the other day?
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 3:32pm
3/30/2020 3:32pm Edited Date/Time 3/30/2020 3:39pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
I sold over half of my TD Ameritrade portfolio this morning and moved it into cash.
borg wrote:
Not a bad hedge when you think about what the market might do when we are hit with a 20% unemployment rate and a similar reduction...
Not a bad hedge when you think about what the market might do when we are hit with a 20% unemployment rate and a similar reduction in GDP. The stock market is not in the Fed's charter although it's hard to tell sometimes. The market loves QE because it lowers interest rates and chases money out of CD's and other "safe investments". Some of it ends up in stocks.
Where are you on TSLA and BA?
Yeah, about half my coworkers got furloughed today which was my big wake up call. This is going to get ugly. I sold all of my BA that I bought last week after a 50% gain but I didn't have a lot. I sold a little over half of my TSLA. Sold all of my VGT and SPCE at a loss. Still have 75 shares of TSLA and some other stuff that is so far down it's not worth selling. I don't believe people will be in the market for expensive cars for a little while. So I figure with these moves I'm okay either way it goes. I'm just going to ride it out for a little while until I have a better feel for how things are going to shake out. I figure I'll be able to pick up some bargains for sure no matter what in the coming months.
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 3:50pm
3/30/2020 3:50pm
Oh and I kept all my AMZN, thinking they're not going to be hit by this at all. Probably could drop some more on that.
borg
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borg 3/30/2020 6:52pm
3/30/2020 6:52pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
Oh and I kept all my AMZN, thinking they're not going to be hit by this at all. Probably could drop some more on that.
They wont be hit as hard but they will be hit. People without jobs don't order much from Amazon or anybody.
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reded
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reded 3/30/2020 7:02pm
3/30/2020 7:02pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
Oh and I kept all my AMZN, thinking they're not going to be hit by this at all. Probably could drop some more on that.
borg wrote:
They wont be hit as hard but they will be hit. People without jobs don't order much from Amazon or anybody.
They sure as shit did over the weekend. Every one of our customers that sell through Amazon had double the amount of orders that they normally have on a Monday. Perhaps people are spending their stimulus check before it hits their account or they’re just bored and have nothing better to do than shop on Amazon.
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borg 3/30/2020 7:14pm
3/30/2020 7:14pm
XXVoid MainXX wrote:
Oh and I kept all my AMZN, thinking they're not going to be hit by this at all. Probably could drop some more on that.
borg wrote:
They wont be hit as hard but they will be hit. People without jobs don't order much from Amazon or anybody.
reded wrote:
They sure as shit did over the weekend. Every one of our customers that sell through Amazon had double the amount of orders that they normally...
They sure as shit did over the weekend. Every one of our customers that sell through Amazon had double the amount of orders that they normally have on a Monday. Perhaps people are spending their stimulus check before it hits their account or they’re just bored and have nothing better to do than shop on Amazon.
Give it about 3 weeks. Things might change.
XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/30/2020 8:18pm
3/30/2020 8:18pm
I figure even more people will be using Amazon so they don't have to go to the store and breath the store air.
Chris99Flannery 3/31/2020 1:14am
3/31/2020 1:14am Edited Date/Time 3/31/2020 1:16am
Multiple days now of the Australian index starting well into the green, but being more up and down than a yoyo, only to finish in the red. The world is broken!!! These massive and multiple individual cash payments are just crazy!
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XXVoid MainXX
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XXVoid MainXX 3/31/2020 7:50am
3/31/2020 7:50am
Maybe I should have waited until today to sell. Smile

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