Election Prediction...

bsm121
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bsm121
Edited Date/Time 1/26/2012 10:57am
...we will not know who the next president will be on Nov. 4th. I'm guessing it will be at least Thursday. This race is tighter than it is being portrayed, and I'm sure there will be a truckload of shenanigans pulled...yes, shenanigans.
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Void Main
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Void Main 10/8/2008 7:31pm
10/8/2008 7:31pm
The shenanigans are already being pulled. I don't believe it's even going to be close actually. There will be no hanging chads this year.
bsm121
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bsm121 10/8/2008 7:32pm
10/8/2008 7:32pm
Void Main wrote:
The shenanigans are already being pulled. I don't believe it's even going to be close actually. There will be no hanging chads this year.
which way?
el moto diablo 10/8/2008 7:33pm
10/8/2008 7:33pm Edited Date/Time 4/16/2016 8:46pm


Friday
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Friday 10/8/2008 7:39pm
10/8/2008 7:39pm
I predict a large % of those being polled and saying they are voting Democrat.......will not. BO may still win,but the biased Media has everything skewed IMHO.I think many are BS'ing about voting for him and SOME will be too lazy that day to make the trip to the ballot box.Gonna be closer than the pundits are saying,I predict.

The Shop

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CR250Rider
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CR250Rider 10/8/2008 7:39pm
10/8/2008 7:39pm
obama by 7
Void Main
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Void Main 10/8/2008 7:42pm
10/8/2008 7:42pm Edited Date/Time 10/8/2008 7:43pm
Void Main wrote:
The shenanigans are already being pulled. I don't believe it's even going to be close actually. There will be no hanging chads this year.
bsm121 wrote:
which way?
My prediction is Obama will take a good share of the electoral votes. The popular vote will be close though. Right now I am still undecided as far as who I am going to vote for but I think Barack is going to take it.
flarider
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flarider 10/8/2008 7:47pm
10/8/2008 7:47pm Edited Date/Time 10/8/2008 7:56pm
It won't be close and the polling is a bit tweeked, there are several factors why
"The Bradley Effect"
"Cell only"
"Lower Income and Blacks"

The Bradley Effect is named after Tom Bradley, LA Mayor who ran for Governor. Bradley had a good lead in the polls, but lost the governor race. It was later determined by pollsters and politicos trying to figure it out, that whites just couldn't pull the lever for a black guy.
Now, this was back in the early 80's and shit's changed a lot since then, so while it may be a factor, it may only be a 2-3% factor.

Cell only is an issue in regards to polling in general. Most all polling is phone based, but land line based. Many people today, especially younger people, do not have land lines and live solely on cellular. Pollsters realize this and try to weight that, but there is no way to tell because there is no solid numbers on cell only people. Last real survey was about 4 yrs ago and it was only 7%, it is believed to be much greater now.

"Low income and Blacks" is a sampling issue because polling is done by zip code to try and work certain area demographics, but nothing it solely listed by race. Race is only a part if asked as part of the poll itself. That said, many Blacks and low income have gone "cell only" so this presents a dual problem as voter registrations for Blacks and low income is way way up, but no one believes they're being properly sampled.

The first problem benefits McCain, problem 2 and 3 benefit Obama.

Some believe it will be a wash, many believe that the polls are considerably low for Obama and the weighting is inaccurate, and that Obama may very well be 5+ above most major polls done, meaning landslide for Obama

Obama is just a few electorals short on all state by state polling, and all he needs is ONE swing state to go over the top, and several swing states including Florida and Ohio are leaning Obama

Last night did not help McCain by all accounts and that polling should be out by Friday, maybe tomorrow.
bsm121
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bsm121 10/8/2008 7:51pm
10/8/2008 7:51pm
the first factor assumes the worst in people...white people.

so, if McCain wins, it will automatically be a race issue?
flarider
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flarider 10/8/2008 7:54pm
10/8/2008 7:54pm
bsm121 wrote:
the first factor assumes the worst in people...white people.

so, if McCain wins, it will automatically be a race issue?
Not with me.
But, considering Election 2000, you can bet some will make it that.
I'll be flying to Zurich the day after the election, so you can hold down the fort
BDOG
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BDOG 10/8/2008 7:55pm
10/8/2008 7:55pm
Excellent breadown Dave and that pretty much covers it. Obama will win, going to be interesting.
Rooster
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Rooster 10/8/2008 8:19pm
10/8/2008 8:19pm
Obama is going to make McCain look like Mondale.

The last few weeks of desperate BS is going to be so easy to see through by anyone with half a brain....

er.....

It'll be really close.
jmar
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jmar 10/8/2008 8:32pm
10/8/2008 8:32pm
It's going to be a dog fight between Obama and Bob Barr.
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/8/2008 9:21pm
10/8/2008 9:21pm Edited Date/Time 10/20/2008 8:48pm
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/14/2008 11:41pm
10/14/2008 11:41pm Edited Date/Time 10/17/2008 1:51am
MXMatt wrote:
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I...
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
See Above. 10-15-08
WhKnuckle
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WhKnuckle 10/15/2008 1:57am
10/15/2008 1:57am
My prediction last summer was an Obama landslide. That's unlikely, but I think he'll win the electoral college by at least 100 votes. I'd said earlier that he'd win the popular vote by 8 to 10 - that's probably too high. The Palin pick will bring out more of the Religious Right, but that won't help much because they tend to live in states that McCain would win anyway.

So, Obama by at least 100 electoral votes and by maybe 6 points in the popular vote.
BDOG
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BDOG 10/15/2008 5:14am
10/15/2008 5:14am
Obama is going to win unfortunately.
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/17/2008 1:52am
10/17/2008 1:52am
MXMatt wrote:
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I...
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
MXMatt wrote:
See Above. 10-15-08
See Above. 10-17-08
WhKnuckle
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WhKnuckle 10/17/2008 3:31am
10/17/2008 3:31am
If Obama wins Virginia or Florida, he wins. We'll know by 11:00 Eastern time on Nov. 4 if he's the president.

Pit Row

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indy_maico
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indy_maico 10/17/2008 4:09am
10/17/2008 4:09am
I won't believe that Obama will win until I see it.

The very fact that in these early polls McCain has over 40% of the public shows the same stupidity that gave us 8 years of Bush.

This country has voted for WASP's for president for over 200 years (with the exception of Kennedy nearly 50 years ago) and even with the diversity of the population that we have in 2008, I am afraid that is what we are going to end up with again.

Like my dear departed oldest brother told me awhile back, 'America will never put elect a woman, a black guy, or anyone whose name ends in a vowel as president'

Ivan
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Ivan 10/17/2008 8:17am
10/17/2008 8:17am
My prediction for the upcoming election is that we will all lose.
pelted
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pelted 10/17/2008 8:47am
10/17/2008 8:47am
I don't think it will be close, Obama will win easily. The fork is in.
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/17/2008 9:13am
10/17/2008 9:13am
pelted wrote:
I don't think it will be close, Obama will win easily. The fork is in.
Well that's a safe prediction. Way to stick you neck out there. Silly
yamaharider4life01
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yamaharider4life01 10/17/2008 9:42am
10/17/2008 9:42am
indy_maico wrote:
I won't believe that Obama will win until I see it. The very fact that in these early polls McCain has over 40% of the public...
I won't believe that Obama will win until I see it.

The very fact that in these early polls McCain has over 40% of the public shows the same stupidity that gave us 8 years of Bush.

This country has voted for WASP's for president for over 200 years (with the exception of Kennedy nearly 50 years ago) and even with the diversity of the population that we have in 2008, I am afraid that is what we are going to end up with again.

Like my dear departed oldest brother told me awhile back, 'America will never put elect a woman, a black guy, or anyone whose name ends in a vowel as president'

No disrespect to your oldest brother...but isn't "Y" a vowel...sometimes...A, E, I, O, U...and sometimes Y????

Or is my public school education failing me again?

Kennedy...
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/18/2008 2:28pm
10/18/2008 2:28pm
MXMatt wrote:
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I...
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
MXMatt wrote:
See Above. 10-15-08
MXMatt wrote:
See Above. 10-17-08
See Above. 10-18-08
rubarb
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rubarb 10/18/2008 2:52pm
10/18/2008 2:52pm
Let Obama get it and screw/socialize the country, then we will be ready for Romney 2012.

MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/20/2008 8:48pm
10/20/2008 8:48pm
MXMatt wrote:
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I...
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
See above 10-20-08
Big Lenny
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Big Lenny 10/20/2008 9:01pm
10/20/2008 9:01pm Edited Date/Time 10/20/2008 9:02pm
You sure bring that shit up a lot, what kind of felony do you have?, oh I forgot, word is "Assault on a dickhead, with attempt to suck"...
MXMatt
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MXMatt 10/21/2008 11:00am
10/21/2008 11:00am
MXMatt wrote:
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I...
I predicted that McCain would win back in July when he was losing in the polls and before Palin was chosen as a running mate. I stick by my prediction. 10-9-08
MXMatt wrote:
See above 10-20-08
See above. 10-21-08
Racer92
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Racer92 10/21/2008 11:13am
10/21/2008 11:13am Edited Date/Time 4/16/2016 8:55pm
BO is gonna easily win this thing. McSame is gonna get schooled.

Can I still write in Whknuckle & Cygnus? Them two would run the country far better than the two clowns running now.
Cygnus
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Cygnus 10/21/2008 11:16am
10/21/2008 11:16am
Colorado and other states let convicted felons to vote once they kill their number. That's weak Scooter .

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