With Ducati, Triumph and Beta all bringing MX bikes to the US in the next couple of years, what do you think the impact will be on the market? Used bike price drop? New bike sales boom?
Specifically I'm talking about the effect of the homologation rules requiring 400 bikes being available in the US to be able to race in the AMA SX and MX (SMX) series. That's 1200 more bikes per "class", per year at dealers than previously were available.
I read somewhere that the Japanese brands would bring in somewhere between 500 and 900 450's a year.... And KTM just above the minimum for each of it's 3 brands. These numbers are just drawn from various media sources and are not intended to be "100% accurate". If someone wants to add more accurate detail, feel free.
So that's around a 20% increase in new bikes on the floor each year... That's a big number.
That's pretty surprising that most brands are only selling 500-900 450s a year. Really shows how insignificant they are to their overall portfolio and why they never seen to be in a rush to put out new models.
KTM group sold " 375,612 motorcycles sold during 2022, up by 42,731 units from its 2021 numbers."
via https://www.advpulse.com/adv-news/ktm-parent-company-reports-record-sal…
I think it's going to take a while to really effect sales of the other brands.
We are so used to the brands we have now for the last 30 plus years that the newcomers are really going to have to prove themselves first before people would start choosing them over the current offerings.
Those would only be the US numbers, I think. But I agree, those numbers are probably a bit low (other than Suzuki of course.......!)
Yes, US sales only... Because only the US forces the MFG's to bring in 400 bikes a year to be able to race them.
And it would be awesome if someone could give "real" numbers. But unlike the automotive industry where detailed monthly sales of each model, etc is available, you just don't see that in motorcycles. Those numbers could be way off.
The Shop
Kawasaki brought in 400 of the KX450SR in 2022 and sold out quickly. The standard KX450 was closer to 1000. In 2023 there were either 600 or 800 of the KX450SR brought in to the US, and about another 1000 of the standard KX450.
Another new brand coming in is Stark. Its a trickle now, but should be a ramp up towards the end of the year.
Every brand is selling more than 400 units a year man. We wouldnt have top riders making over a million a year, multiple semis, all this stuff for them to sell 400 450s lol
I am 100% certain you will never see a Triumph or Ducati dirt bike for sale on a dealership floor. "oh yeah it will be out next year for sure" for how many years now...
Ducati? This could be interesting.
Unless the price of a new bike starts dropping and not going up every model year ,I don't see how sales could increase.
I can tell you my local Triumph dealer is having to expand their showroom to accommodate additional models including dirt. Pretty sure they wouldn't be doing so if they weren't coming.
That's my concern, fancy faux-boutique brands pushing the limits of pricing and spec, and the others matching / trying to match it to 'keep up' (when they don't need to) and it elevates the pricing again.
That sucks for all of the personnel Triumph has hired to develop and race the bike. I wonder when they will let them in on the big secret?
The 1400-1800 number seems more viable to me... That would be about double what I posted. That would lower the math to about 10% more new bikes on dealership floors. Still a significant change.
100%.....hmmmmmm.....if I were you I wouldn't make that bet....
I am 99% certain you are wrong.
Even Suzuki sells more than that. I wouldn't doubt that it is lower now, but when I worked there just a few years back, the number was more like 1,500 450s per model year. The other brands are likely doing even more.
Lol. Ducati..
The numbers in the original post are way off
if triumph are racing next year , they will need 400 250f by March
Pit Row
10 manufactures for the same class of bike... thats to much competition for all of them to last, I dont see customers paying a large premium for one make over the other unless there is a major performance advantage. There will be 2 marketing perspectives (best and cheapest). One manufacture will have the best bike, best reviews, wins most of the races, their bikes will sell. Another will cheapest, and they always sell. everyone else will have a harder time selling bikes.
Triumph will collect dust more than likely, just like a Ducati or any other boutique brand. All the mx sheople want what everyone else has. Different is scary, the only impact will be the novelty of a couple different brands.
Good grief, sometimes I'm embarassed that I even read these threads.
Our sport is heading the way MTB's are!
Shit ton of brands, and then the fucking mega high end prices. Im just wondering which brand will start shooting for what customer.
Right now the low end price point guys are:
Gas/Gas & Suzuki and those new Kayo's
Then middle tier price point is:
Kawasaki,Honda, Husaberg, TM, Fantic
The High End Tier price point guys are
KTM, Husky, Yamaha, Sherco, Beta
I may be off for some of the brands, But this is how it seems to be breaking down when i look across the us price wise. Please correct me if im wrong.
But where does this leave the new MFG's in regards to customers?
The US doesn't require 400 units in order to be legal to race, that is the AMA's Pro rule. There are plenty on non AMA tracks around the country that don't have that requirement.
I agree with a good chunk of that, but bro Husaberg are loooong gone aren't they?
I thought KTM killed them off / shuffled certain tech across when they took Husky on.
Yer they was brought by the ktm group I believe it 2013 ish , of the new ones I’m seeing I honestly believe beta will be competitive the fastest , what they’ve done in the enduro world Iver the last decade is nothing short of impressive
Beta certainly should be competitive the fastest, given the much more recent MXGP / enduro experience over Triumph, but I guess we'll see how it shakes out 👍
Some good looking Beta's around and anyone offering a 200 two stroke is fine by me 😂
I mainly ride moto but I owned a beta 300 rr for a while and done some enduro races the thing was awesome and bulletproof , that’s before they went over to kyb aswell , obviously nothing happens overnight but like I say I think there a company that’s really on the up I don’t see ut taking them to long !
Honestly, other than Austria maybe, all offroad bike manufacturers are takers from the sport. They don't contribute much at all to grow or health of the sport at all anymore. Dirt bikes are small potatoes for most of the current makers. Hopefully these new makers will be more involved in the promotion, health, and growth of the sport. How cool would it be if a riding park had a sign overhead the entrance that read "Brought to you by Ducati"? Or Triumph sent attorneys on behalf of riders to keep a riding area open?
Last weekend, on my way to get my Kawasaki, I passed a guy who had a Beta 300 on his trailer.
I had to slow down and check it out for sure, but I don’t have the money for that.
Feel free to provide the real numbers of US sales for MX bikes... You could straighten this all out.
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