Finish Strong | Don't Count Out the Champs 6

History shows the results of the season opener do not have much influence on becoming champion. The riders must find consistency and finish strong.

Darksidemx3
1/9/2024 5:39pm
Finish Strong

The 2024 Monster Energy Supercross series has officially begun, and Anaheim 1 is in the rearview mirror and I'm not sure it lived up to the anticipation or hype of previous opening rounds. The results from a few of the championship contenders were a little lackluster and not what was expected, but those results should not elicit any concerns of a runaway series. The former champions are aware the goal is to be consistent and finish strong.

One topic of hype that did not fall short was that of 450 rookie Jett Lawrence. After going undefeated in the Pro Motocross Championship series, some in the moto community believe he could do the same in Supercross. Not losing a single race against the current field is unlikely and unrealistic, but he did win the first round handily. The current MX and SMX champion may be on a path to breaking and setting many records, but a Supercross championship will not be handed to him without a fight. 

Winning a Supercross championship in a rider's rookie season has only happened twice. Jeremy McGrath did it in 1993, and Ryan Dungey became the second rider to accomplish that feat in 2010. So, it's not unheard of by any means, although the current field of riders is arguably the strongest in the sport's history. Remember that the field comprises four past 450 Supercross champions and more than ten 250 champions who will not just lay down.

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Octopi Media

Winning the opening round is the first step to winning the championship, but many riders have done that without sealing the deal at the end of the season. In fact, no first-round winner has won the championship in the last ten years. The last time it happened was 2012 with Ryan Villopoto accomplishing that feat. Eli Tomac was en route to doing that in 2023 until his Achilles injury in Denver ended his season. 

The A1 results from the other championship contenders may add to the hype of Jett Lawrence's road to his first 450 SX championship if you don't look at finishes from the past. The defending champ, Chase Sexton, appeared to be off the pace in the main event and was handed his third-place finish when Cooper Webb crashed and ended up sixth. Webb was much better on his Star Racing Yamaha than I thought he would be after what we saw in Paris last year. His riding built some excitement for the upcoming rounds. 

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Octopi Media

 Eli Tomac was never in contention and looked uncomfortable throughout the day. His ninth-place finish was not what he was hoping for, but the two time champ has a history of starting slow. Ken Roczen finished tenth after a first-lap pile-up slowed him down, while the 2018 Champion, Jason Anderson, finished second and looked better than he did in all of 2023. Looking at A1 in a vacuum it may appear Jett Lawrence has found a level above the others, but it's simply too early to say that definitively. 

As stated, if you don't look in the history books, those results would appear to make a case for Jett to be the favorite. If you do look, you will find that often, the eventual champion has a poor finish at round one. Both of Eli Tomac's championships started with unimpressive first rounds. He was seventh at A1 in 2020 and sixth in 2022. The opener was in Houston, Texas, in 2021, where Cooper Webb finished ninth and proceeded to win his second championship. Webb's first championship came after a fifth at the opening race. In 2013, Ryan Villopoto even went on to win the championship following a sixteenth at round one. 

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Octopi Media

Jett Lawrence may very well go on to win the 2024 Supercross championship. He may even go on to break Jeremy McGrath's record of 72 wins. As of now, he still has much work to do to fulfill those goals, and I expect Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, and Chase Sexton to show him there are lessons to be learned. Look for those riders to return to their winning ways and the number 18 to have a few difficult races before it's all said and done. 

This season has only just begun, and a lot of racing is still to be had. Jett may be the future of Supercross, but for the present, the past champions aren't done. The 2024 season has a long way to go, and I expect a battle to the final round at Salt Lake City. Tomac, Webb, Sexton, Roczen, and possibly others will find the top step of the podium and finish the 2024 Supercross season strong. We are in for a great season of racing!

Related:
Jett Lawrence
Cooper Webb
Eli Tomac
Chase Sexton
Ryan Villopoto
Monster Energy Supercross
Ken Roczen
6 comments

View replies to: Finish Strong | Don't Count Out the Champs

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Jabe
2 years ago

„[…] while the 2018 Champion, Jason Anderson, finished third […].“
Jason Anderson finished second at A1 not third.

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Moto Braap
2 years ago

With the idea of finishing your first race as a rookie with a win I remember Tomac coming out and doing it in the outdoors.  I am not sure how many other riders did that or on what size bike?  This may be Jett’s first win in the AMA premiere Supercross class but it doesn’t feel like a rookie first win after last year’s SMX races and international warm-ups plus a long 250 career in MX and SX.  If Prado came out and won having not raced Supercross or someone moving up from the 250’s who had not ridden a year of 450 Motocross first I would be more impressed to stamp that as a rookie’s first win in the premiere class as the first ever to do it.  

On Supercross style tracks Jett got beat in Charlotte and waved by Kenny for a gift so I don’t see how that makes him a rookie winner.  A full rookie 450 season opener winner yes.  Jett has skills and fitness but he’s gonna have to dig deep and overcome some adversity like the other riders have and like this article shows the field should challenge for him to deserve being champ. And I hope it motivates riders on the edge of retirement or to continue to elevate their game to not let Jett run away too easy giving us more to cheer for not against Jett but in the name of progression and competitiveness.  The best can make things look easy or hard if you think of Sexton as being the total package with some issues to overcome.  Not getting hyped on Jett or down on Sexton seems kind of weird.

I would be disappointed if at least  5 more 450 guys didn’t get any more wins since they are capable of doing so on any given night shown to me by the ups and downs of their career and A1 things gone right or wrong.  With the preview shows I bought into each rider’s story and how they can be at the top of their game during this season.  Just having a championship is not as profound as other details like Anderson didn’t dominate for his championship, had some bad years and crashes but is right back feeling good on the podium.  Hard to believe many seemingly underperformed to finish top 10 of other best racers.  Barcia is not that far off from a comeback after injuries and a surprise win may happen in NJ again so game on with him too.

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Matt NZ
2 years ago

The issue the others face against Jett is the age profile and speed ceiling. 

Other than Chase, the other main contenders are all late 20s and early 30s. Jett is still on a massive learning curve and his race craft along with raw speed will only get better. Can you see Eli, Webb, Anderson, Barcia etc being faster this year than any previous year? Smarter maybe, but absolute speed, no. 

I think the one guy with more in the tank is Chase, and I hope he finds it with KTM. He seemed very controlled at A1 and happy to accept the 3rd with no risk in his approach. 

An intriguing season is ahead of us.  

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Moto Braap
2 years ago

I was completely off the mark counting out Webb and even Anderson for 2nd too but when I saw A1,warm-ups and Anderson leading the field I knew he came to play and show the kids around the track.  A lot of dudes could step it up to Jett’s level but then I could be wrong again and see him go on a streak like the outdoors.  Racing is a craft but if someone can latch on and apply some pressure they may stay up to speed and figure some things out.  Fast and consistent is hard to beat but I am expecting some action up front this year.  Eli starts slow and Jett is expecting a challenge at some point. If not it’s a shame since he has had been the one to beat.  If Jett sneezes there’s gotta be someone to show him a wheel.

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