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A fantasy based jobs report, soon to be revised.
Again.
Inflation up more than joe reads from his cue cards.
Stock market reactiing appropriately. ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Gas jumping up $0.40 overnight.
Groceries prices jumped again this past weekend.
My building materials are still ridiculously overpriced, as well as cabinet hardware.
One of our three next homebuilds has the future owners making noises about severely cutting back on the size, fit and finish, or even not building at all.
(And these are multi million dollar homes)
And we have joe, and our resident mx stooge saying, all is well.
I think our wallets are a much better indicator as to what's going on away from the television, and computer screen.
Gas proces this morning in Illinois. Are now up to 4.59-4.89 for reg. Yeah shits great. Idk dementia joes govement says everything but i talk with fellow business owners and meet with 2-4 new clients M-F in their own homes and i dont hear anything positive coming out of their mouth unless their houshold is taking in more then 120k. I'm seeing more people in the 100k and under income level complain about money being tight. Just my observation in Illinois and Chicago. Yes Illinois and Chicago are different.
As far as people pointing at the stock market and saying were doing good look at the stock market. If thats ur metric for good or bad your woefully under informed economically. Unless something bad and i mean really bad happens, the stock market will always go up it will never go down. Its how it goes up or or stays flat that tells you more about the economy then the numbers. Think of it like a dyno chart the numbers only tell one story the chart tells a different story. I would hope people on vital would understand that reference without me needing to explain it. The economy is shit. All real metrics are negative right now.
People are financing their lives on cards, housing market is down for non luxury and non investment purchases, housing proces are sky fuckin high still, rent is astronomically high due to illegals flooding the market. Rent in my area has gonecup 3-500 on apartments and due to illegals craming into all the cheap units and houses for more money then they were previously rented for.
Auto repos are getting close to 08 crash levels again. Banks are trying to not foreclose on properties because thwy dont want that on their portfolios right now. Its a mess but it not the bottom yet.
Price of stamps going up again ,5th time in 3 years .
Little boy has to insult and project his own faults onto others. Truly a sad, pathetic, life you must live.
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Stock market continues to climb. Jobs reports look great. Unemployment looks great. Inflation easing better than any other developed nation. Etc. Etc. People who don’t like this administration will say X Y or Z to discredit it. But it’s the same metrics used for decades. Trump, in his desperation, now realizes he can’t blame Biden for the economy anymore, so he’s pivoted to saying he should have credit for this because people expect him to be re-elected. I’m not even saying Biden deserves all the credit for this. But you can still see by the pivot from the right what they truly feel about it. POTUS has minimal impact with regard to the economy. And that goes both ways. The economy was great from 14-20 under Obama and Trump, and it’s also true that we can’t deny it is rebounding nicely post COVID now under Biden.
That's absolute bullshit, the metrics they use change constantly and have been changing for decades. If we used the same metrics that they used back in the 80s there would be a very different story to tell.
He still can't even be honest and say what his previous name was on here... again, not worth the time. Dude doesnt even have pride
"People who don’t like this administration will say X Y or Z to discredit it."
And you would never just blindly follow and believe these "metrics" just to give credit to the Biden administration would you?
I'm not an economist or even really that smart but when I look around I sure see a lot of signs that the economy is shit and quite a few people are struggling to keep up.
$4+ for a gallon of gas hurts everyone.
Groceries being 75% more than they were not to long ago hurts everyone.
New tires for my pickup in 2021 cost me $1,500...same tires last month cost me $2,200.
Etc. Etc. Etc.
I feel things like that which we can see with our own eyes are better indicators of the economy and how it affects everyday Americans rather than some reports that the data can be manipulated to tell whatever story you want to tell, don't you?
Maybe you can enlighten us all the drastic changes that have been made when “Biden’s” economy is being compared to “Obama’s” economy or “Trump’s” economy.
God no I don’t blindly follow Biden. He does things I don’t agree with and I probably have more conservative opinions than many here would ever believe. I think many on both sides always assume that someone on the other side blindly follows their guy. Thats why I was sure to give credit, for what little POTUS has control over, for the economy of both Obama and Trump from 14-20. I don’t blame Trump for the terrible economic numbers from March 2020 till he left office. Just like I don’t blame Biden for the insane inflation because corporations are recouping lost profits from COVID as the economy picks back up. High gas prices suck and they will only get higher. Saudi Arabia and Russia have cut the supply, which in turn will raise oil prices world wide. Why did they do this? We can’t say for certain, but it does appear they did so with an election coming up in order to help Trump. It’s no secret that Saudi Arabia wants Trump in there, as they made a 2 billion dollar deal with his son in law right when he left office, and Putin wants Ukraine aid to cease, and we know which POTUS would be more likely to make that happen. Biden has no control over them cutting supply and prices being raised, because he’s not a dictator and can’t mandate oil prices. Oil supply gets cut, demand stays the same, prices rise, which in turn makes it more expensive to transport goods, which means the companies raise their prices to pass that onto the consumer so they can still rake in record profits.
Here are a couple articles for the oil cuts if you’d like to read them.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-putin-told-saudis-mbs-we-meet-mos…
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/03/saudi-arabia-to-extend-1-million-ba…
For what it’s worth, on a personal level, I appreciate you being unbiased and criticizing both parties, their current leaders, and blind followers of each party as much as you do.
It was interesting yesterday that in the fed minutes they mentioned rent inflation due to immigration. I know a young guy whos making decent money, saving, waiting for lower interest rates and/or house prices going down so he can buy a house. It sure seems like housing prices will not go down and if they lower interest rates it will just raise housing prices the same amount, if that makes sense.
Back in December the market was pricing in a March interest rate decrease. It seemed ridiculous to my amateur investing brain and sure as heck its looking more like September...maybe.
Looks like the price of gas is going to kill me again this summer
Property taxes went up about $150/month.
Car insurance went up 20% in January for the 2 vehicles I have full coverage on, didnt go up at all on the 2 I Just have liability on.
When you meet with all these people who are complaining about tough economic times are you in a position to ask them who they voted for?
Every time I hear someone complaining about local or economic issues I ask them who they voted for...and if they voted for the current administration I tell them that's exactly what you voted for, so next time don't make the same mistake.
Poor people in Compton are complaining about pot holes and neglect to their city infrastructure. The majority of these people voted for the current administration. Now they are learning their government is spending billions on shipping illegals into our Country, housing them, and giving them ATM cards, and also sending billions of our/their money overseas.....this pisses them off as it should.
For a tiny sliver of the money our government is spending on ruining our Country and helping others, the whole city of Compton could have a makeover with new streets, infrastructure, new paint, new arenas, churches, schools etc....once you teach them this, they wake up very quickly. Even the Taco vendors are now getting robbed....they'll wake up and realize they need to vote for law and order, instead of voting for the current administration which was 100% motivated by simply avoiding the one man they did not like.
All everyone can do is try to educate as many people as possible who are being brainwashed like a few of the vital posters here.
Yes they are now talking about another cut now. We live in crazy times when fed speakers have conflicting thoughts and each hold their own presser. Bond market is a shit show, property taxes went up because the city evaluated our home to be another 30k higher. Good luck seeing a price reduction on taxes lol. I get astounded that our government prints money and uses our tax dollars to fund foreign wars instead of actually combating inflation. We have banking issues, energy issues, government spending issues, and essentially the lemon has been squeezed. The market is booming off of nothing while our economy is struggling. Crazy times
Glady, here is a comprehensive list detailing detailing all of the changes made to how CPI has been measured and reported over time:
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-changes.htm
Additionally, here is a helpful website that tracks what modern day CPI would be reported as if the basket of goods was not changed over time. If you look closely based on 1980s data reporting our CPI was actually very close to 18% at peak, rather than the 8% or so reported:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
And lastly, here is an example of how jobs data is revised later on after real payroll data is reviewed months later. Everyone looks only at the blockbuster number reported based on survey data, but time and time again over the last few years the revised data has shown a starkly different result than the initially reported number. This one happens to be CA specific, but the federal data has followed the same trend, absolutely massive "revisions" (in this case 350k+ down to just 50k added) that show a very different reality than what was initially reported:
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/801
This kills me, they are purposefully lying with the data for optics. Meanwhile, investors are looking at CPI, NFP, unemployment, core CPI etc and they revise the revisions now😂. All on purpose to take investors money and keep the machine printing and pandering for votes.
I've been following daily economic reports for nearly 20 years...the goal posts have definitely moved, multiple times...the revisions to employment numbers is comical...and its all to make the "headline figures" look good, so Americans will cheer it on (like ThatOneMXGuy is doing here...he doesn't even know he's been hoodwinked)..The fundamentals of the economy, if you look past the smoke and mirrors, are in really bad shape..and the house of cards gets propped up more and more...which will make the fall even more painful.
The dems are trying to keep it propped up through November...figuring it can fall apart then when Biden is not longer up for re-election (if he wins)...and if Trump wins, they'll place the blame entirely on him.
The Fed is trying to fight inflation...the federal government keeps trying to make it worse by printing more and more money (for "Ukraine", etc. etc.).
Chances of rate cut in June is now less than 20%...From an almost absolute certainty of a rate cut in June earlier this year...inflation has gone UP the past three months in a row.
We are far from out of the woods...
Thanks for providing links.
There are no drastic changes in the way things have been calculated for the last 10+ years. We can discuss all day what this administration or that administration did to make their numbers look better than they really are. But there isn’t a massive change in the calculation that was implemented specifically for Biden to make him look better. And as I’ve said before, POTUS has minimal effect on the economy anyway.
Keeerist, this guy actually believes the garbage he's posting.
🤣😂🤣😂🤣
Pit Row
I didn’t make this a Biden/Trump thing, you did. You also stated that we’ve been measuring economic progress the same way for decades, which I proved is an undeniably false statement. Your insinuation that the economy is doing just fine based on what many of us see is fabricated or at the very least misleading data (which is independent of who is in office, they all cook the books) is also pretty hard to justify, that’s all I’m pointing out. I’m not interested in this side vs that side BS, that’s the garbage they distract us with while the real wolves play in the background.
Its absolutely scary that there are still people ok with this current administration. The only possible reason is it was their mothers or wife's..... Region.... That donny reportedly said to grab... Or something they heard on cnn... 99% of biden lovers only "like" biden because they, for whatever ridiculous reason, hate trump..
I wouldn't call myself neither party really because i believe the government as a whole over reaches is too many areas. I will however always vote for the lesser of the two evils.. id pick the guy that supposedly fondled a hooker over a creep thats reportedly fondled his own daughter and sniffs kids..
Yeah, the economy is junk. Getting close to the 2008 dry up of new construction. Im just a dumb painter who banks on people buying new homes.. well, they aint buyin new homes nearly as much these days.. starting in December its been the slowest I've ever seen it since 08, and it costs me double what it did to do just a few short years ago..
We as a country are absolutely screwed if someone other than biden or any of his morons doesn't get in.
I,m talking to 1099 Chicago co.s every day, it’s the only job that you can make anything. But not anymore. The money is cut in 1/2. Everyone says the same thing thd market is crashed. Tens of thousands of co.s shutting down every week . Same with w2 co.s there also going out of buisness. Because there all broke. I would stock up on food. The carrier that hauls produce for the 3 Walmarts here. Said I,m loosing too much money on these loads, I,m done. He was under contract & will sued but he’s broke and out of buisness anyway. Trucking co.s r not making anything, office people make nothing there working 2 full time jobs. But that’s the new America most work 2 full time jobs. Just to pay the bills.
I really get the feeling we are in another pre 2008 scenario at the moment... I bet there are a handful (but probably more like 1000's) of Michael Burry's and other savy investers, looking at all the stats and pounding their heads against the wall because the economy and its price should be plummeting but instead its still charging upwards to potential new highs.
There is an arguement that a big push in AI investment is falsely propping up the market, which could be the case as we all know a couple of big corps make up a big % of NASDAQ and S&P value, but how long can this last.
My advice? Start following and tracking people in powers trading moves. When Nancy Pelosi pulls her multimillion $ trade buys, you know shits about to hit the fan.
I do work for 1, and have close contact with 3 other high end homebuilders.
All say the same thing about having deja-vu leading up to 2008.
Like I said previously, my builder has good, quality work through 2027.
But our 2nd home in line has the homeowners starting to waffle a bit.
As far as I know, most of our clients do not need a bank loan per say to finance the build.
(Just to manage)
So obviously they've been smart with their finances all along, and aren't willing to risk a huge 7 figure investment.
Let's hope we get a change in administration, and get back to cutting regs and excessive taxation that's helping to strangle our economy right now.
I'll say it again,
This is all about being out in the real world, and not in front of a screen all day, and night.
Also,
I've noticed over the past few weeks, two different television ads for municipal bonds.
Watch those get as annoying as the gold, and silver commercials.
They want your money.
It is kind of like the Wild West in the investment industry right now. Lots of opportunities but with high risk. Burry got his ass clapped from his massive puts he placed and he was right. Until the Ukraine war turned that around lol. Because war is bullish if you didn't know
There have been slight changes as the years have gone by yes. Multiple people in this thread before me were referring to the rules being changed to make Biden look better. The same metrics are being used that have been used for at least the last three Presidents.
Anyway, thanks for providing links. Good discussion. Have a good day.
Minus the fact that the white house briefings, the media alike are ALL blatantly lying now about numbers. They didn’t do that before. Imagine going to Walmart and trying to buy a loaf of bread. It is advertised as $4.50 but when you get to the checkout it is now $7. Now multiply that by billions. If I recall Biden ran on transparency. They went in the opposite direction. It’s a shit show
We know all too well how they’ve changed the metrics, indeed the “dynamics”, by which they measure these things.
What happens when and if we actually include ENERGY PRICES?
What happens to the numbers if we dial-in FULL TIME versus PART TIME jobs…?
Where’s the ACTUAL & legitimate numbers of WHO is coming across the border and WHERE are they WORKING…where are they LIVING…& how does this affect the ECONOMY?
What are the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS?
What is the REAL AVAILABLE WORKFORCE NUMBER?
WHY HAVE THEY CHANGED the methods of tracking those metrics?
WHY do some of us out right tell a false narrative about those things when it’s well knowin that the methods HAVE CHANGED?
Some folks are culpable with the lies we’re being told; because, they not only ushered this shit in to our lives…they continue to lie about it.
Liar - one who knowing tells lies.
Well this is the part that becomes human psyche no doubt. Everyone is different which is a good thing and we always want opposing ideas and thoughts so we can continue to learn, grow, and thrive. The part that I do not understand is when people refuse to admit being wrong. It is ok to be wrong in life, and as humans it is our intelligence that allows us to further our minds and to see when we are shall we say mentally lazy? If you look at people who are high performers or on top of their game. They are wrong all of the time, but they learn from it. Today, people aren’t learning, they would rather drown in it.
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