For Moto Guys Who Like Math

offroadtoday
Edited Date/Time 1/23/2012 6:50am
This is how the "Calcumotor" Predicted the Race Finish. I even went to the extent of showing the difference in victory margin and distance from first to last.


Finish Finish Diff Cum CPP Rider
1 0.098 0.650 93.958 2     Ryan Villopoto
2 0.551 0.642 72.860 22     Chad Reed
3 0.091 0.250 67.309 5     Ryan Dungey
4 0.159 0.701 10.218 18     David Millsaps
5 0.542 1.185 68.058 41     Trey Canard
6 0.643 0.916 31.517 29     Andrew Short
7 0.272 0.321 -33.127 800     Mike Alessi
8 0.049 0.182 24.601 24     Brett Metcalfe
9 0.134 0.982 10.553 10     Justin Brayton
10 0.849 1.208 -4.581 14     Kevin Windham
11 0.360 0.543 -17.430 27 Nick Wey
12 0.183 0.790 -75.789 26     Michael Byrne
13 0.607 0.813 -2.973 9     Ivan Tedesco
14 0.206 2.751 -57.580 43     Weston Peick
15 2.546 3.288 -66.786 942 Tye Simmonds
16 0.743 -84.331 76.669 7     James Stewart
17 -85.074 -85.074 -37.074 38     Chris Blose

If I can figure out how to upload the spreadsheet I will.
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offroadtoday 3/5/2011 3:19pm
3/5/2011 3:19pm Edited Date/Time 3/6/2011 2:13am
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907Riders.com 3/5/2011 4:10pm
3/5/2011 4:10pm
Stewart really messed with you calculations!!!

Very cool otherwise but with a rider not putting in solid laps in both timed practices it kills the theory.
Bill_Carroll
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Bill_Carroll 3/5/2011 4:17pm
3/5/2011 4:17pm
M.Alessi 7th?
This is going to be as good as it gets......I hope!Wink Cool
eb313
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eb313 3/5/2011 4:18pm
3/5/2011 4:18pm
offroadtoday wrote:
This is how the "Calcumotor" Predicted the Race Finish. I even went to the extent of showing the difference in victory margin and distance from first...
This is how the "Calcumotor" Predicted the Race Finish. I even went to the extent of showing the difference in victory margin and distance from first to last.


Finish Finish Diff Cum CPP Rider
1 0.098 0.650 93.958 2     Ryan Villopoto
2 0.551 0.642 72.860 22     Chad Reed
3 0.091 0.250 67.309 5     Ryan Dungey
4 0.159 0.701 10.218 18     David Millsaps
5 0.542 1.185 68.058 41     Trey Canard
6 0.643 0.916 31.517 29     Andrew Short
7 0.272 0.321 -33.127 800     Mike Alessi
8 0.049 0.182 24.601 24     Brett Metcalfe
9 0.134 0.982 10.553 10     Justin Brayton
10 0.849 1.208 -4.581 14     Kevin Windham
11 0.360 0.543 -17.430 27 Nick Wey
12 0.183 0.790 -75.789 26     Michael Byrne
13 0.607 0.813 -2.973 9     Ivan Tedesco
14 0.206 2.751 -57.580 43     Weston Peick
15 2.546 3.288 -66.786 942 Tye Simmonds
16 0.743 -84.331 76.669 7     James Stewart
17 -85.074 -85.074 -37.074 38     Chris Blose

If I can figure out how to upload the spreadsheet I will.
How did the "Calcumotor" know that Stewart would wad up?

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sbarrington314 3/5/2011 4:20pm
3/5/2011 4:20pm
how does it know that 3 people wont start?
eb313
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eb313 3/5/2011 4:21pm
3/5/2011 4:21pm
Good point ^^^
offroadtoday 3/5/2011 4:21pm
3/5/2011 4:21pm Edited Date/Time 3/5/2011 4:23pm
907Riders.com wrote:
Stewart really messed with you calculations!!!

Very cool otherwise but with a rider not putting in solid laps in both timed practices it kills the theory.
True to an extent, but it allows you to use whatever your experiences you have to interpret when looking at the info. It is hypothetical, but it is not impossible to think James could not finish where it has been predicted. I think I did use a value to factor in their consistnecy over the year so I am reasoning by using Boltzmann's constant.

If you really wanted to know how close I was then I would let you see the results of the standard deviations, variables and empirical values, but those need to be tested and played with more. I should have the app ready by the start of nationals.

We have a new line of racing apps coming out under a new company name. We have a little funding and are just doing it for fun, for now. I got everything under patent and copyright review, so now it is just waiting time. I kind of cut and pasted this together as to not give away how detailed it can really get. Were talking BCS shit....so my investor thinks.
Moose Knuckle 3/5/2011 4:36pm
3/5/2011 4:36pm
The results work for me. Lets call it a night boys...
Moose Knuckle 3/5/2011 4:37pm
3/5/2011 4:37pm
And btw, R.acer just took his tube top off.
offroadtoday 3/5/2011 4:39pm
3/5/2011 4:39pm Edited Date/Time 3/5/2011 4:42pm
It's three people we don't worry about. That is your variance of chance. Not all 20 guys are going to come from just session's "A". TO be 100% accurate I would need to plug in each rider who throws down a fast and second fast lap. Plus that is how many riders potentially could be lapped or DNF.
offroadtoday 3/5/2011 4:41pm
3/5/2011 4:41pm
We had a pretty solid beta on WSBK and MotoGP last year, moto is a new variation of my own. My partner is more of a street guy.
offroadtoday 3/5/2011 4:43pm
3/5/2011 4:43pm Edited Date/Time 3/5/2011 4:45pm
Just to let you know how I am not sold myself yet is in the blog I wrote this morning. Kind of contridicting myself and that is a bit of a control group in itself. So at least I have predicted James will loose or crash out. Doesn't that sound logical? If there were odd's then it could get tricky.

http://www.supercross.com/blogs/stupid-is-as-stupid-doeshtml
toroP
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toroP 3/5/2011 4:51pm
3/5/2011 4:51pm
Cool stuff. Let's see how it plays out over the season.
txmxer
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txmxer 3/5/2011 4:58pm
3/5/2011 4:58pm
have you back checked your calcs versus races this season?

Can you do a simple comparison of the accuracy of your calcs versus just the fastest laps in A and B practices?
Feint
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Feint 3/5/2011 7:45pm
3/5/2011 7:45pm
Got the top 3 correct. I don't really understand the other numbers you got there, but top 3 and a bad race for Stewart is a pretty good prediction.
AZ35
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AZ35 3/5/2011 8:07pm
3/5/2011 8:07pm
Moose Knuckle wrote:
And btw, R.acer just took his tube top off.
Hahahaha... Good one!

I hated math in school, but your top 20 had a pretty amazing accuracy percentage overall. Top 3 exactly, plus give or take a couple positions many of the other top 20.

Obviously not perfect, but you did not say you were a psychic. Just using some funky number shit to see what may happen.
offroadtoday 3/6/2011 12:58am
3/6/2011 12:58am
What no trophy. Just wanted to give you a taste of whats to come. I was never really happy with how the math was panning out in Fantasy moto and thought there were some tricky odds in the mix. I started using this three weeks ago and really haven't missed to much yet.

Oh and my lights prediction was even more accurate. Soon we will have things that show statistics you never dreamed for riders.

I appreciate the open minds, I could have just as easily been wrong. Stewart was on a man size charge and it was not the result I was hoping for, or at least to prove my math. To be honest I didn't even finish watching the main after watching Stewart crash his reputation into infamy.
offroadtoday 3/6/2011 2:12am
3/6/2011 2:12am
txmxer wrote:
have you back checked your calcs versus races this season? Can you do a simple comparison of the accuracy of your calcs versus just the fastest...
have you back checked your calcs versus races this season?

Can you do a simple comparison of the accuracy of your calcs versus just the fastest laps in A and B practices?
Pretty much done. That is why I felt pretty good about throwing it out there. I wanted to test the waters and see how it would go. I thought Daytona would be the trickiest to predict so I figured why not start with the biggest guy on the block to see how things would pan out?

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