The Weekend Breakdown | 2026 Nashville 1

Nashville's Nissan Stadium produced another memorable Monster Energy AMA Supercross event. The thirteenth round was a crucial point in the vicious brawl for off-road's most prominent crown. Lewis Phillips' recapitulation tackles the impact that it's had.

LAWRENCE'S REDEMPTION

There may be no better testament to Hunter Lawrence's quality than his response to Detroit: he crashed out, lost the red plate and less than two weeks later holds the largest 450SX points advantage of his career. Whilst it's true that he has had help from an inconsistent Eli Tomac, it's impressive how well he has handled such adversity.

"Hindsight is a great thing," Lawrence reflected after his fourth triumph (one that ties him for the most in season). "You look back to Detroit and think, 'Oh, maybe he should have settled for third?' Maybe I wouldn't have crashed and would have a healthy double-digit points lead now? It just puts emphasis on how important it is to be healthy, or the healthiest version of yourself, at every round."

Lawrence checked himself when pondering the importance of staying healthy, as he is tussling with that jammed wrist and has been unable to log too many practice laps in the last fourteen days. Therefore, his focus has shifted from the balance of his CRF450RW to the hyperbaric chamber. It's perhaps been a welcome distraction from the ever-present battle to fine tune his Showa suspension.

"We just left the bike all day," he said. "With this kind of track, you just have to get in tune with the feeling and connectivity. Traction was a massive thing. I think we maybe hit three-quarter throttle, or half throttle, once out there." It was critical to be precise rather than explosive on Nashville's crusty (and unpopular) surface, something that is reflected in Lawrence's path to the victory: he was not the fastest in any sector yet had the best time of the race.

Verdict: Lawrence has left no doubt that he is the best man.

TOMAC TURNS TO HIS TIRE

Nashville's qualification sessions provided relief for those in Tomac's corner – he topped the charts for the sixth time this year (the most pole positions for him since 2018). The intent behind his pole lap would have struck fear into his competitors, and banished memories of his subpar races in weeks past.

Hours later, the main event all but diminished his title aspirations.

The downturn of Tomac – his results have worsened with each race since Daytona – remains a mystery, although it is now clear that no physical ailment is at play. The decision to reintroduce a scoop tire on the 'icy' surface in Nashville was curious, but perhaps there was some logic behind it. That choice would have seemed more conventional in Indianapolis, yet Tomac said there that it would provide "too much" traction. Maybe surfaces like this – or even the conditions seen in Fort Worth in 2024 – are where he thinks the tire paves over issues? It would be unusual, but there has been little that is normal about this situation.

Nashville's main event contradicts that, no matter what he believes, as he floundered in the lower half of the top ten before a mistake restricted him to twelfth at the checkered flag.

"You can't pin it all on the tire – I think that Eli did not quite get it together there and once he tipped over, things just went from bad to worse," Ian Harrison (KTM's leader) mentioned. "It was definitely a tough night for him. I checked with him after the race; he will head back this week and work on himself. Eli was happy with his set-up – that's what he told us. There were areas that were rock hard, but the corners still had ruts in them and so did the rhythm lanes. This would not be my choice of tire, but everyone's different. I have to trust him, with the way that he feels like it helps him."

There is no physical ailment and it seems unlikely that this is just a set-up problem. It feels like he lost something – a feeling or spark – and is trying everything imaginable to rediscover it. Even if he finds it in Cleveland, it may be too late.

Verdict: 2026 appears like a missed opportunity for Tomac.

DUCATI'S BREAKOUT RIDE

Ducati's maiden voyage in 450SX has been an undisputed success – a Desmo450 has finished inside the top ten in nine of its eleven attempts. For an all-new platform, without any prior supercross data, it is tricky to categorize that as anything other than a success.

Alas, the campaign had lacked a headline-grabbing event (besides Justin Barcia's catastrophic crash at Anaheim 1) and therefore those in Bologna would have hoped for more attention. Two podiums in their first MXGP season steered the narrative from some dismal results – all it takes is a singular 'flash' to justify an investment.

Nashville was exactly that.

Ferrandis started in the lower half of the top ten – the area that he's resided in since Anaheim 1 – and pushed on with aplomb, climbing as high as fifth and setting the third-fastest lap of the race. It's no shock that he performed well; valuable testing was done in the week and the Desmo450 performs best on the hardest of dirt (that trait is consistent indoors and out).

"This is the first time that I have really felt like the bike was for me; that was my bike and my set-up," Ferrandis said. "I am very happy and proud of the team. We had a big week of riding and testing in Florida. The full team was there. The team wanted me to start riding motocross, but I told them we have five more races. I know what the bike is capable of and we had not achieved what I was looking for yet.

"With all the feedback that we had from the previous race, and all of the testing, we knew the direction that we wanted to go and we found how. It was chassis. We had been trying to fix the chassis issue with suspension, but it did not work. Finally, we found what was wrong on the chassis and changed parts."

Verdict: Ducati's supercross season's now a clear success.

COENENS COME CALLING?

KTM's roster for the 2027 SMX World Championship requires more puzzle pieces than ever before – all four of their riders are out of contract in October. Additionally, a spot at Husqvarna is not finalized and it appears the Coenens have an open invitation to travel to the United States.

"I think the ball is in their court, actually," Harrison said. "I think the boys want to come over. Everyone on my team, all of their contracts are done. Eli was just a one-year contract too, so we'll see. They [the Coenens] showed huge potential but, at the same time, you never know if they want to stay and win a world title. We are still early days. We don't know where everything is going to land with them. For the most part, their journey is heading this way. I don't know if that'll happen in 2027 or 2028."

The first domino to fall will be Tomac's decision about his future. The former champion aside, Prado appears the only one certain to stay in KTM colors. Although his negotiations – likely to take him into a multi-year deal and seven-figure salary – will be thorough.

Verdict: Plenty to decipher ahead of 2027 commitments…