The Weekend Breakdown | 2026 Anaheim 1

Lights illuminated Anaheim's Angel Stadium once more as 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross launched on Saturday, January 10, and provided a plethora of narratives that sent fans into overdrive. Some of those captured Lewis Phillips' attention and landed within this recapitulation.

AUSTRIA ANGLE REDEMPTION ARC

Financial difficulties, suspension woes and public spats defined KTM's previous twelve months. A near-podium sweep silenced all of those and established a new discussion: excellence. Eli Tomac was as good as ever on the whole; there were no weaknesses of note, a rarity even as one of the sport's all timers. For instance, he sat in the top three on both main event starts.

Tomac led on the first lap in five of his 47 450SX main event starts with Yamaha and now, in his first attempt, he has done it aboard his KTM 450 SX-F. It is not a trend yet, but it's positive.

The same could be said about the robustness of their WP components. There were no durability issues and credit must head in the direction of the Austrian factory, where an all-new fork and shock were built for their premier class stars. Tomac first used the shock at the end of his worldwide adventure – Prado was on it in mid-November and therefore provided a reference point. The true 'factory' parts are available to all three 450SX riders.

"The suspension that we have now is all-new," Ian Harrison shared. "We received it a few weeks ago. Everyone had ideas that we could try, and we were lucky enough to roll that into one package. It took some fine tuning for each rider, but they all said it was better. I knew it would be better with the amount of time that they rode. It was not a guess or reaction to one lap. This was after hours and hours of track time."

There are less question marks around the suspension components, the business has a clear direction and the riders are publicly praising various facets of the organization. This is a far cry from where KTM sat last January, despite the similar result.

Verdict: A dream start. Now, attention turns to sustainability.

MAX MASTERS CRITICAL WEAKNESS

The catalyst for Max Anstie's Anaheim win can be traced back to Vancouver, the second round of the FIM World Supercross Championship. There were many issues on that cold November day but Anstie overcame those and, consequently, a deep-rooted demon was slayed: he executed on a day where he typically would not.

"I could have messed up today," Anstie said in Canada. "There was a lot happening in my head and I'm so pleased that I did the job. Today meant a lot for the future, because I made a nice step mentally. Today was a hard day: I can take this into the future that I can overcome that."

Anstie underwhelmed in qualification – he was classified seventh and over a second from his title foes over one lap. The turns seemed difficult for him, far from fluid, and he just looked ordinary. The races were very different; softer suspension helped him open up his turns and he won with the five fastest lap times. To boot, his best time was just shy of nine tenths quicker than anyone else.

Now, in dark moments, he can call back on Vancouver and Anaheim 1 for inspiration.

Verdict: Subpar day to brilliant night. Tricker than it sounds.

PRADO PROVES POINT, POTENTIAL

In just his seventh Monster Energy AMA Supercross start, Jorge Prado is a podium finisher in the premier class. It took Tomac nine 450SX starts to claim a trophy, Chase Sexton seven, Cooper Webb five and Hunter Lawrence nine. It's in this context that the extent of Prado's achievement truly appears.

This was no fluke, to boot. Track conditions were 'normal' from the very start of the day, the field was as stacked as it's ever been, he was fast as soon as Q1 begun and he was one of the only stars to triple onto the tabletop out of turn five. There is no room to discredit his performance – he looked the part amongst supercross' elite.

Even his quickest lap time, a 01:07.059, was the sixth fastest and better than Lawrence behind him. Dive into all of the analytics from the twenty-lap main event and attempt to find a misstep or weakness, because that does not exist. This was more than a bronze medal – this was proof of concept.

Most will be quick to criticize his former employer, Kawasaki, but remember that he was happy with the bike in supercross and it's entirely possible that he would have arrived at this point with the KX450, had he not spent a majority of the off-season on the sidelines and raced more than twice. Prado's 'win' is in no way a loss for anyone else, and the same will ring true when the opposite inevitably arises.

Verdict: Exhale. Prado is, and always has been, phenomenal.

HAIDEN HAS SOME MORE TO LEARN

Haiden Deegan carries an air of immortality in the 250SX class, more than a typical current champion. It is, for that reason, that it's quite startling to see him leave Angel Stadium without a trophy. Not the least because it's the fourth time in succession that he has missed out at round one.

Deegan started twelfth and took seven laps to move to sixth, which just seemed a little slower than one would've expected from someone of his stature. That did not resonate as much as him overlooking the triple, triple exiting turn two and the sheer number of minor errors that cost him tenths each lap. Those two elements will loom large, as Anstie's strengths lie there.

"I kind of blew it. I brain fogged that race," Deegan admitted when I pointed out the discrepancy.

Anstie and Levi Kitchen were the only athletes to take that line and the difference in speed was apparent in those sector times. The third sector, which covered the rhythm exclusively, saw Deegan record a personal best that was 1.138 slower than Anstie's. Losing more than a second in one lane is unheard of for a current champion. Kitchen, for context, was within a tenth of Anstie's time.

Verdict: Haiden is human – rivals will find comfort in that...

COMPETITIVE MIX OF OLD VS. NEW

The competitive landscape in 450SX was a pleasant reminder of just how far this sport has come. Suzuki are on an upward trajectory once more – a pleasant sight to behold – and Ducati has proven to be immediately effective. There were raised eyebrows when Dylan Ferrandis proclaimed that the Desmo450's made him happier than ever before, but those fell once he took to the circuit. Ferrandis looked like his normal self, which is no small feat on an all-new motorcycle.

Ferrandis' sector times look favorably on the machine too, with no glaring fault. The whoops were where he was the most powerful, as he was on his CRF450R and YZ450F, and he actually had the second-fastest time there in the main event. Roczen was the only quicker star there – a blend of the most archaic machine and the newest in a sea of former championship-winning motorcycles. Triumph deserves a nod for their maiden 450SX main event, as well.

Suzuki had two athletes in the top five for the first time since San Francisco in 2024, when Roczen and former teammate Shane McElrath sat in third and fourth respectively.

Verdict: Options galore for those in pursuit of a factory bike.

AUSTIN'S FORK IN THE ROAD AHEAD

3,290 days on from his first appearance in the 250SX division, Austin Forkner debuted in 450SX. Was it his full-time debut on the TF 450-X? Time will tell, as he's yet to decide whether he'll start the 250SX East championship. Jordon Smith's timeline will inevitably loom large, but Forkner can dictate the narrative with his showings across his five-race stint.

"It's not really just my decision," Forkner shared. "It's us as a team. They have kind of just said 'if we see progress then you will stay.' It's not a specific result like top five or ten. If they see progress and we are improving the bike, then maybe I'll stay in the 450SX class for the whole of the supercross season. If I get into it and want to try to make a title run in the 250SX East division, we'll do that. I think I'm signed up for the first five 450SX races as of now."

It is well documented that Triumph Factory Racing pursued both Dean Wilson and Phil Nicoletti for this 450SX project. Wilson, especially, was a target with his nationality and consistent fanfare, but both riders overlooked a chance to steer the TF 450-X to history. Forkner was the benefactor in that – his career may just progress rapidly as a result.

Verdict: Change could kickstart Forkner's turbulent career…