January's True Essence – The Tomac Tale 1

Curiosity surrounds the paradigm for how Eli Tomac operates in the thirty-one days of January. It is rather bizarre for an all-time talent to be used as a case study for brilliance as well as darkness, but his name is familiar with both sides of the spectrum. There is a reason why watching Tomac has never entered a stale state – an air of unpredictability will do that.

Until recently, January was anything but unpredictable for Tomac. Limping through Californian staples like Angel Stadium and Petco Park would yield far from desirable results. There are many statistics that could shine a light on how dire this excursion became for the two-time champion, but the fact that he had stood on the podium in the first two weekends of January three times over eight terms should pass muster. The fourth round's where he has typically found comfort in the past – the fact that Glendale has occupied that spot on the schedule more times than not is, of course, no coincidence.

There is an obvious outlier in this data set, that being 2023 Monster Energy Supercross in which he burst into life with back-to-back triumphs at rounds one and two. Even those who are mathematically challenged can arrive at the fact that he started the season with a mean finish of first. Not only was that the first time that he started the term with an average below fourth, but it was also just the fourth time that his average was inside of the top five. To use "subpar" to describe the way in which he typically starts a season would fail to convey the mediocre nature in which he operates.

There was never a conclusive answer for why Tomac transformed into a January master – the closest that anyone was able to get to an explanation was simply the fact that he liked the new YZ450FM much more. Such an opinion is subjective and therefore it is hard to identify how much merit that it carries. The latest rendition of Yamaha's machine is not too dissimilar but that does not mean that January will be as fruitful. It is understandable that there will be rust and whatnot after six months of inactivity. Simply, there are more factors at play than there were twelve months prior.

Ponder the consequences for the rest of the field if he comes out swinging in a similar fashion. The same could be said if Jett Lawrence or Chase Sexton execute immediately. The notion that it is not possible to win the championship at Anaheim 1 has spread far and altered perceptions of January as a whole. Anaheim 1 means little in the grand scheme of things, true, but the behavior throughout the first month of the year is often telling for what lies ahead. Let's decipher the numbers to achieve a greater understanding of what January has foreshadowed in years gone by.

In thirteen of the last twenty seasons, the series leader at the conclusion of January has claimed the crown when the final checkered was waved. The eventual champion has not featured outside of the top three at all in that time frame. In fact, existing outside of the top two was rare: Ryan Villopoto ranked third at the end of January in both 2012 and 2013. Does this information not prompt you to place more weight into what will be seen across the next thirty-one days? Truthfully, it should.

There is a reason for trepidation. A multitude of alterations in the Monster Energy Supercross space have created an air of uncertainty as the opener beckons; Tomac is set to return from injury, Jett Lawrence has moved classes and Chase Sexton has moved teams. Cooper Webb has changed his setting too, of course, then Jason Anderson is on Kawasaki's new motorcycle. Ken Roczen is the only elite rider with some sense of stability and that means that January could be even more of an outlier.

If these athletes are pivoting to adjust then that could position January as a month of madness. In contrast, month one could be a beacon of illumination that guides onlookers in amongst the craziness. There is no doubt that many will go berserk after Anaheim 1 – it will be easy to get lost in the countless storylines that emerge from the twenty minutes of on-track action. Take note of this storyline, however, as this could help you to identify a pattern that will guide you to answers that are hiding in plain sight.