Against The Grain – Boiling Point Approaches

When the sound of bikes is heard across Czechia – for the Grand Prix that has just been run at Loket for the 27th time – it tends to hint that the current FIM Motocross World Championship is rather close to a conclusion. The championship chase is all but over at that point in the schedule, more often than not, as it is not uncommon for an athlete to exit the venue with a lead of more than 80 points.

Tim Gajser has a lead that is a fraction of that, 36 points to be exact, but the number should inspire some merriment at Team HRC. The on-track excitement has caused most to discount that upper hand – the idea of a three-rider duel is just too attractive to pass over. Gajser holds the red plate and won the most recent Grand Prix, yet his recent effectiveness has been overlooked in favor of Jeffrey Herlings' return to form. It is Loket that has been cruel to '84' in the past and so most had marked the Czech track as one that would prove to be a hurdle in his title bid.

Points were lost to Gajser. It was, nonetheless, a moral win for Herlings, who made it clear that he is close to his best form and will not admit defeat. The fact that the endless sand of Lommel in Belgium awaits is set to fuel his fire further. Arnhem, his home Grand Prix, is not too far in the distance either and so all will depend on whether Gajser can minimize the points lost at those specialist events. The fact that he is able to work with a lead of more than a moto means that the power remains in his hands, especially as Herlings is not his closest challenger.

Jorge Prado dominated headlines at the start of the current Grand Prix season – his competitiveness was spectacular and caused most to deem him unbeatable. There has been a small slump in recent weeks, in comparison to the near-perfect level that he possessed at the beginning of the season, but the reason that is noticeable is because he was so exceptional to start with. There is no reason for a pundit to dismiss him, but Herlings delivers more of a 'thrill' at the moment and so the excitement filters in that direction. It is a fickle environment, off-road.

To revert back to the start, the idea that the Grand Prix of Czechia marks the start of the final chapter is a rather well-founded concept. There are six instances in the last 20 terms where the top two in the MXGP class (this is a discussion that is exclusive to the 450F division) were separated by less than 50 points as the circus departed Eastern Europe. In fact, it has occurred once in the last 12 years and that was in 2018 – it was a number influenced by Jeffrey Herlings missing one race with injury. There was almost no doubt that he was en route to that title.

Now consider that just once since 2004, when this current structure was introduced, has the athlete who has left Czechia with the red plate relinquished it. Josh Coppins holds that unfortunate title and it was an injury-induced heartbreak, which almost renders it irrelevant. Could 2024 be an exception to this rule or will Gajser maintain? Note that '243' has not succumbed to the pressure before but, in truth, he has never had a lead under 109 points as Lommel beckons. This is a familiar situation and so he is able to call upon past experience. It is still uncharted territory in some instances, however.

The thrill comes from the fact that this could be just the start of something rather special.

Post-Czech Point Differences