Dow 5000?

borg
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Edited Date/Time 1/25/2012 8:38pm
Are we looking at a copy of Japans 15 year slide?

Dow
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borg
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8/24/2010 8:11am
txmxer
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I got out a month ago. All I've got is a 401k, but, this thing has been smelling pretty sour for a while. It will come back, but, it will be sometime next year. Spring to early summer will be really important IMO.
Titan1
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Actually it was Clinton. He laid/allowed the groundwork for the Bush housing bubble.
flarider
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8/24/2010 10:46am
Titan1 wrote:
Actually it was Clinton. He laid/allowed the groundwork for the Bush housing bubble.
OK, so I understand this...

While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now"

But when discussing Bush, IT IS OK to blame Clinton for any fuck ups even though Bush was President for eight years

Right?


The Shop

Frogman
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8/24/2010 11:00am Edited Date/Time 8/24/2010 11:01am
Titan1 wrote:
Actually it was Clinton. He laid/allowed the groundwork for the Bush housing bubble.
flarider wrote:
OK, so I understand this... While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now" But...
OK, so I understand this...

While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now"

But when discussing Bush, IT IS OK to blame Clinton for any fuck ups even though Bush was President for eight years

Right?


Bush, Clinton, Bush all fucked up. Can probably go back further if we want to.

Now Mr. Change is perpetuating previous mistakes and making his own. More of the same results in more of the same. Obama owns this mess now

TeamGreen
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8/24/2010 11:25am
"Same as it Ever was."
"Same as it Ever was."
Titan1
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8/24/2010 11:28am
Clinton passed key legislation that encouraged mortgage banks and fannie mae/freddie mac to reduce lending standards.

Clintons dot com boom/bust (if Bush is responsible for the house boom/bust, then clinton is responsible for the dot com boom/bust), AND the WTC attacks (Clinton had a shot to kill bin laden....and Bush had only been in office for 9 months when they happened....if Obama isn't to blame for anything that happened his first year, neither is bush) laid the ground work for historically low interest rates.

The historically low rates started the housing price increase.

the housing prices increasing sparked the investor interest

Investor interest further increased housing prices

Rapidly increasing home prices, made bankers realize they can make loans to borrowers with weaker and weaker qualifications.

The lower the lending standards the more people will qualify.

The more people that qualify the faster home prices go up.

The faster home prices go up the lower the lending standards get.

Do you see?

Anyway, without the dot com crash, and without the WTC attacks rates wouldn't have been as low as they were. Without the low rates you don't see the home appreciation. Without the home appreciation you don't get the low lending standards. Without the low lending standards you don't get the foreclosures. Without the foreclosures you don't get this recession.

Bush is getting the blame for clintons mess....Obama is getting the blame for Bushes mess which is really clintons mess. Clinton was just lucky enough to get out while the getting was good, and looks like a hero as a result. If he had been in office one more year he'd be looked at much the same way Bush is (the dot com crash would have happened on his watch, as would have the WTC attacks).
txmxer
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8/24/2010 11:29am
Frogman is right here: Can probably go back further if we want to.

You can scroll through the history books and see it there throughout time. We are good with a goal...but, once humanity achieves a level of satisfaction and comfort we start to flounder.
flarider
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8/24/2010 11:46am
Titan1 wrote:
Actually it was Clinton. He laid/allowed the groundwork for the Bush housing bubble.
flarider wrote:
OK, so I understand this... While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now" But...
OK, so I understand this...

While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now"

But when discussing Bush, IT IS OK to blame Clinton for any fuck ups even though Bush was President for eight years

Right?


Frogman wrote:
Bush, Clinton, Bush all fucked up. Can probably go back further if we want to. Now Mr. Change is perpetuating previous mistakes and making his own...
Bush, Clinton, Bush all fucked up. Can probably go back further if we want to.

Now Mr. Change is perpetuating previous mistakes and making his own. More of the same results in more of the same. Obama owns this mess now

But no one is allowed to mention Bush's fuck ups. right?
Even though that is how we got here, that is unmentionable.

Why is that?


borg
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8/24/2010 11:50am
txmxer wrote:
I got out a month ago. All I've got is a 401k, but, this thing has been smelling pretty sour for a while. It will come...
I got out a month ago. All I've got is a 401k, but, this thing has been smelling pretty sour for a while. It will come back, but, it will be sometime next year. Spring to early summer will be really important IMO.
Do you have a reason why you think it will come back? If you look at the above chart, Japan's market had several bear market rallies, but continued to make lower lows for almost 20 years. There are a host of reasons for it and some think that there are many parallels to our own situation.

BTW, I was out in August of 08' and haven't returned except for some random day trading.
Frogman
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8/24/2010 11:53am Edited Date/Time 8/24/2010 11:55am
flarider wrote:
OK, so I understand this... While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now" But...
OK, so I understand this...

While Obama is in office, no one is allowed to mention Bush or his fuck ups because "Obama's President now"

But when discussing Bush, IT IS OK to blame Clinton for any fuck ups even though Bush was President for eight years

Right?


Frogman wrote:
Bush, Clinton, Bush all fucked up. Can probably go back further if we want to. Now Mr. Change is perpetuating previous mistakes and making his own...
Bush, Clinton, Bush all fucked up. Can probably go back further if we want to.

Now Mr. Change is perpetuating previous mistakes and making his own. More of the same results in more of the same. Obama owns this mess now

flarider wrote:
But no one is allowed to mention Bush's fuck ups. right?
Even though that is how we got here, that is unmentionable.

Why is that?


I don't know who you are talking about. I have had a Bush fuckup in my signature for 4 years.

Maybe the problem is that they don't agree when you want to lay it all on Bush. There were presidents before Bush. Hell, you were the most vocal opponent to laying anything on Clinton when Bush was in office...you understand more than I do why it is.
flarider
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8/24/2010 11:57am
Frogman wrote:
I don't know who you are talking about. I have had a Bush fuckup in my signature for 4 years. Maybe the problem is that they...
I don't know who you are talking about. I have had a Bush fuckup in my signature for 4 years.

Maybe the problem is that they don't agree when you want to lay it all on Bush. There were presidents before Bush. Hell, you were the most vocal opponent to laying anything on Clinton when Bush was in office...you understand more than I do why it is.
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now"

I've read that shit a BUNCH of times on here, if you say you have not, you're either a liar or you ignore it
txmxer
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8/24/2010 11:59am
txmxer wrote:
I got out a month ago. All I've got is a 401k, but, this thing has been smelling pretty sour for a while. It will come...
I got out a month ago. All I've got is a 401k, but, this thing has been smelling pretty sour for a while. It will come back, but, it will be sometime next year. Spring to early summer will be really important IMO.
borg wrote:
Do you have a reason why you think it will come back? If you look at the above chart, Japan's market had several bear market rallies...
Do you have a reason why you think it will come back? If you look at the above chart, Japan's market had several bear market rallies, but continued to make lower lows for almost 20 years. There are a host of reasons for it and some think that there are many parallels to our own situation.

BTW, I was out in August of 08' and haven't returned except for some random day trading.
Probably should have used more "if's"

I got back in when the rebound happened. It's been sitting in neutral for a while. Lots of bad news. But, then there are sprinklings of good news here and there. Anyway, I just don't have a good feeling about what I'm seeing and hearing, so I got out.

We know there's still more garbage from the bubble to come. That's bad.

But, I hear orders for trucks is on the rise. Car sales are up. People are doing new jobs...have cut costs. Saving more. There are some positives. It will take a while to sort it out.

20 years? Who knows. I kind of like to sense the overall direction and follow the trends. A 401k isn't flexible enough to respond to daily news...I just try to be in it as much as practical for overall trend.
Frogman
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8/24/2010 12:00pm
flarider wrote:
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now" I've...
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now"

I've read that shit a BUNCH of times on here, if you say you have not, you're either a liar or you ignore it
I clearly remember you being on the "CEO, man in charge, buck stops here" soap box when it was convenient. Is it not convenient anymore?

All I said was I don't know who you are talking about. I didn't say it didn't happen. I don't have all day to writes names on paper and keep score.
Blake
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8/24/2010 12:15pm
Titan1 wrote:
Clinton passed key legislation that encouraged mortgage banks and fannie mae/freddie mac to reduce lending standards. Clintons dot com boom/bust (if Bush is responsible for the...
Clinton passed key legislation that encouraged mortgage banks and fannie mae/freddie mac to reduce lending standards.

Clintons dot com boom/bust (if Bush is responsible for the house boom/bust, then clinton is responsible for the dot com boom/bust), AND the WTC attacks (Clinton had a shot to kill bin laden....and Bush had only been in office for 9 months when they happened....if Obama isn't to blame for anything that happened his first year, neither is bush) laid the ground work for historically low interest rates.

The historically low rates started the housing price increase.

the housing prices increasing sparked the investor interest

Investor interest further increased housing prices

Rapidly increasing home prices, made bankers realize they can make loans to borrowers with weaker and weaker qualifications.

The lower the lending standards the more people will qualify.

The more people that qualify the faster home prices go up.

The faster home prices go up the lower the lending standards get.

Do you see?

Anyway, without the dot com crash, and without the WTC attacks rates wouldn't have been as low as they were. Without the low rates you don't see the home appreciation. Without the home appreciation you don't get the low lending standards. Without the low lending standards you don't get the foreclosures. Without the foreclosures you don't get this recession.

Bush is getting the blame for clintons mess....Obama is getting the blame for Bushes mess which is really clintons mess. Clinton was just lucky enough to get out while the getting was good, and looks like a hero as a result. If he had been in office one more year he'd be looked at much the same way Bush is (the dot com crash would have happened on his watch, as would have the WTC attacks).
If they didn't, America would be nothing more than a Tijuana looking shanty town with plywood houses, dirt floors and blue tarps for roofs.

America asked for longer terms and easier financing when they should have been getting more money.

75 Grand needs to be minimum wage. At least in CA.

69 K is Poverty Line in the county I'm in.
So if you make 75 grand, you're barely getting by.

Why do you think cars have 5-7 year loans? People dont make any fuckin money! WIthout it, they'd be riding bicycles.
OR Horses, Mules, etc
borg
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8/24/2010 12:18pm
txmxer wrote:
Probably should have used more "if's" I got back in when the rebound happened. It's been sitting in neutral for a while. Lots of bad news...
Probably should have used more "if's"

I got back in when the rebound happened. It's been sitting in neutral for a while. Lots of bad news. But, then there are sprinklings of good news here and there. Anyway, I just don't have a good feeling about what I'm seeing and hearing, so I got out.

We know there's still more garbage from the bubble to come. That's bad.

But, I hear orders for trucks is on the rise. Car sales are up. People are doing new jobs...have cut costs. Saving more. There are some positives. It will take a while to sort it out.

20 years? Who knows. I kind of like to sense the overall direction and follow the trends. A 401k isn't flexible enough to respond to daily news...I just try to be in it as much as practical for overall trend.
Did you see this today?

Home sales

This is a good illustration of why I don't think that government stimulus works. The people that got tax credits were going to buy a home anyway. They just did it sooner. So now we get the reality. People that think that dipping water out of one end of a pond and then pouring into the other end, accomplishes anything, are being gamed. They only see the video of the "new" water being poured in. They didn't see it getting dipped out.
Titan1
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8/24/2010 12:23pm
Titan1 wrote:
Clinton passed key legislation that encouraged mortgage banks and fannie mae/freddie mac to reduce lending standards. Clintons dot com boom/bust (if Bush is responsible for the...
Clinton passed key legislation that encouraged mortgage banks and fannie mae/freddie mac to reduce lending standards.

Clintons dot com boom/bust (if Bush is responsible for the house boom/bust, then clinton is responsible for the dot com boom/bust), AND the WTC attacks (Clinton had a shot to kill bin laden....and Bush had only been in office for 9 months when they happened....if Obama isn't to blame for anything that happened his first year, neither is bush) laid the ground work for historically low interest rates.

The historically low rates started the housing price increase.

the housing prices increasing sparked the investor interest

Investor interest further increased housing prices

Rapidly increasing home prices, made bankers realize they can make loans to borrowers with weaker and weaker qualifications.

The lower the lending standards the more people will qualify.

The more people that qualify the faster home prices go up.

The faster home prices go up the lower the lending standards get.

Do you see?

Anyway, without the dot com crash, and without the WTC attacks rates wouldn't have been as low as they were. Without the low rates you don't see the home appreciation. Without the home appreciation you don't get the low lending standards. Without the low lending standards you don't get the foreclosures. Without the foreclosures you don't get this recession.

Bush is getting the blame for clintons mess....Obama is getting the blame for Bushes mess which is really clintons mess. Clinton was just lucky enough to get out while the getting was good, and looks like a hero as a result. If he had been in office one more year he'd be looked at much the same way Bush is (the dot com crash would have happened on his watch, as would have the WTC attacks).
Blake wrote:
If they didn't, America would be nothing more than a Tijuana looking shanty town with plywood houses, dirt floors and blue tarps for roofs. America asked...
If they didn't, America would be nothing more than a Tijuana looking shanty town with plywood houses, dirt floors and blue tarps for roofs.

America asked for longer terms and easier financing when they should have been getting more money.

75 Grand needs to be minimum wage. At least in CA.

69 K is Poverty Line in the county I'm in.
So if you make 75 grand, you're barely getting by.

Why do you think cars have 5-7 year loans? People dont make any fuckin money! WIthout it, they'd be riding bicycles.
OR Horses, Mules, etc
I don't disagree with that.

I'm just pointing out that Clinton did/allowed some things that made the housing boom/bust possible, and the housing bust caused this recession.
txmxer
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8/24/2010 12:24pm
Yeah...bad news. But, that's not exactly a proper analogy. The water would be borrowed from another source.

What I think the stimulus does is it's kind of like a tourniquet. It's not going to solve your problem, but hopefully you won't die until you get proper treatment.

My problem with what's been done is the government hasn't done anything to prevent things from getting fucked up again. The wolves are licking their chops and all these pennies the average joe is putting back are the fresh meat that Wall Street is looking for.
borg
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8/24/2010 12:40pm
txmxer wrote:
Yeah...bad news. But, that's not exactly a proper analogy. The water would be borrowed from another source. What I think the stimulus does is it's kind...
Yeah...bad news. But, that's not exactly a proper analogy. The water would be borrowed from another source.

What I think the stimulus does is it's kind of like a tourniquet. It's not going to solve your problem, but hopefully you won't die until you get proper treatment.

My problem with what's been done is the government hasn't done anything to prevent things from getting fucked up again. The wolves are licking their chops and all these pennies the average joe is putting back are the fresh meat that Wall Street is looking for.
We only have one source, the American taxpayer.
TeamGreen
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8/24/2010 12:51pm
Un-Fuckin'-Believable...

Total Fuckin' DEREGULATION of the Banking/Investment System...as we've known it since the fuckin' DEPRESSION had NOTHIING to do with ANY AND ALL of this?

Really?

Glass-Steagall...Repealed in 1999...under Sec. Treas. Rubin's guidance; yet, another wonderful leader brought to you by Goldman Sachs...Both PARTIES were involved in this P.O.S.

Some of you need to get a fuckin' clue...
flarider
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8/24/2010 1:16pm Edited Date/Time 8/24/2010 1:20pm
flarider wrote:
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now" I've...
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now"

I've read that shit a BUNCH of times on here, if you say you have not, you're either a liar or you ignore it
Frogman wrote:
I clearly remember you being on the "CEO, man in charge, buck stops here" soap box when it was convenient. Is it not convenient anymore? All...
I clearly remember you being on the "CEO, man in charge, buck stops here" soap box when it was convenient. Is it not convenient anymore?

All I said was I don't know who you are talking about. I didn't say it didn't happen. I don't have all day to writes names on paper and keep score.
Actually, in order to be accurate, I said that after a few years of Bush being in office, not within his first year or year and a half.

It was once the WMD thing was found to be bullshit and the Iraq war being a farce that I began to say it was Bush's fuck up and he was the man in charge and the buck stopped with him.



It is OBVIOUS that any President is going to have to deal with the shit from the predecessor for at least the first few years and to say that you cannot discuss or blame that predecessor for the conditions the sitting President has to deal with is just plain bullshit.



You forget, or weren't here, I supported Bush up to 9-11, through 9-11, his invasion of Afghanistan, his march to war in iraq, all the propaganda and the eventual invasion and occupation.



It wasn't until much later when it became obvious it was all bullshit about Iraq that I began to question Bush and laid the blame at his feet as Commander in Chief and that the buck stops with him.

That would be late 2003/early 2004.....almost 4 yrs into his Presidency



People have been saying in regards to this administration since day one to not blame Bush since Obama is President now, as if all Bush did isn't relevant....that we somehow got to this point and position though osmosis



motogeezer
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8/24/2010 1:40pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Un-Fuckin'-Believable... Total Fuckin' DEREGULATION of the Banking/Investment System...as we've known it since the fuckin' DEPRESSION had NOTHIING to do with ANY AND ALL of this? Really...
Un-Fuckin'-Believable...

Total Fuckin' DEREGULATION of the Banking/Investment System...as we've known it since the fuckin' DEPRESSION had NOTHIING to do with ANY AND ALL of this?

Really?

Glass-Steagall...Repealed in 1999...under Sec. Treas. Rubin's guidance; yet, another wonderful leader brought to you by Goldman Sachs...Both PARTIES were involved in this P.O.S.

Some of you need to get a fuckin' clue...
DING DING DING!!!

Don Pardo, tell him what he's won.
Frogman
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8/24/2010 2:04pm
flarider wrote:
Actually, in order to be accurate, I said that after a few years of Bush being in office, not within his first year or year and...
Actually, in order to be accurate, I said that after a few years of Bush being in office, not within his first year or year and a half.

It was once the WMD thing was found to be bullshit and the Iraq war being a farce that I began to say it was Bush's fuck up and he was the man in charge and the buck stopped with him.



It is OBVIOUS that any President is going to have to deal with the shit from the predecessor for at least the first few years and to say that you cannot discuss or blame that predecessor for the conditions the sitting President has to deal with is just plain bullshit.



You forget, or weren't here, I supported Bush up to 9-11, through 9-11, his invasion of Afghanistan, his march to war in iraq, all the propaganda and the eventual invasion and occupation.



It wasn't until much later when it became obvious it was all bullshit about Iraq that I began to question Bush and laid the blame at his feet as Commander in Chief and that the buck stops with him.

That would be late 2003/early 2004.....almost 4 yrs into his Presidency



People have been saying in regards to this administration since day one to not blame Bush since Obama is President now, as if all Bush did isn't relevant....that we somehow got to this point and position though osmosis



To be accurate, late 2003 early 2004 would be closer to 3 years than 4.

So we disagree on when the presidents policies, those proposed and those passed through legislaltion, have an effect. I can live with that.

txmxer
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8/24/2010 2:08pm
TeamGreen wrote:
Un-Fuckin'-Believable... Total Fuckin' DEREGULATION of the Banking/Investment System...as we've known it since the fuckin' DEPRESSION had NOTHIING to do with ANY AND ALL of this? Really...
Un-Fuckin'-Believable...

Total Fuckin' DEREGULATION of the Banking/Investment System...as we've known it since the fuckin' DEPRESSION had NOTHIING to do with ANY AND ALL of this?

Really?

Glass-Steagall...Repealed in 1999...under Sec. Treas. Rubin's guidance; yet, another wonderful leader brought to you by Goldman Sachs...Both PARTIES were involved in this P.O.S.

Some of you need to get a fuckin' clue...
motogeezer wrote:
DING DING DING!!!

Don Pardo, tell him what he's won.
Agree totally...but, I'm beginning to believe it's the nature of the beast. Not sure that people are going to change.
motogeezer
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8/24/2010 3:22pm
txmxer wrote:
Agree totally...but, I'm beginning to believe it's the nature of the beast. Not sure that people are going to change.
It is the nature of the beast.

Regulation of the stock market was how the beast was corralled.

Repealing Glass-Steagall opened the corral gates, and the beast was set free to eat what ever it wanted, and shit where ever it wanted.

Now, once fertile fields are decimated, and the tax payers are left shoveling the shit.
txmxer
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8/24/2010 3:25pm
txmxer wrote:
Agree totally...but, I'm beginning to believe it's the nature of the beast. Not sure that people are going to change.
motogeezer wrote:
It [i]is[/i] the nature of the beast. Regulation of the stock market was how the beast was corralled. Repealing Glass-Steagall opened the corral gates, and the...
It is the nature of the beast.

Regulation of the stock market was how the beast was corralled.

Repealing Glass-Steagall opened the corral gates, and the beast was set free to eat what ever it wanted, and shit where ever it wanted.

Now, once fertile fields are decimated, and the tax payers are left shoveling the shit.
true...this is the "when" it happened. My point is humans will always find a way to fuck things up given the chance.
KAWboy14
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8/24/2010 3:27pm Edited Date/Time 8/24/2010 3:27pm
the democrats owned the houses for the last 2 years of bush.........NONE of them really wanted to fix anything! ohhh let me restate that.....none of them realised there was a problem!
KAWboy14
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8/24/2010 3:29pm
flarider wrote:
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now" I've...
Because many people on here and elsewhere say "Bush isn't President anymore" or that "People need to stop talking about Bush, Obama is President now"

I've read that shit a BUNCH of times on here, if you say you have not, you're either a liar or you ignore it
Frogman wrote:
I clearly remember you being on the "CEO, man in charge, buck stops here" soap box when it was convenient. Is it not convenient anymore? All...
I clearly remember you being on the "CEO, man in charge, buck stops here" soap box when it was convenient. Is it not convenient anymore?

All I said was I don't know who you are talking about. I didn't say it didn't happen. I don't have all day to writes names on paper and keep score.
flarider wrote:
Actually, in order to be accurate, I said that after a few years of Bush being in office, not within his first year or year and...
Actually, in order to be accurate, I said that after a few years of Bush being in office, not within his first year or year and a half.

It was once the WMD thing was found to be bullshit and the Iraq war being a farce that I began to say it was Bush's fuck up and he was the man in charge and the buck stopped with him.



It is OBVIOUS that any President is going to have to deal with the shit from the predecessor for at least the first few years and to say that you cannot discuss or blame that predecessor for the conditions the sitting President has to deal with is just plain bullshit.



You forget, or weren't here, I supported Bush up to 9-11, through 9-11, his invasion of Afghanistan, his march to war in iraq, all the propaganda and the eventual invasion and occupation.



It wasn't until much later when it became obvious it was all bullshit about Iraq that I began to question Bush and laid the blame at his feet as Commander in Chief and that the buck stops with him.

That would be late 2003/early 2004.....almost 4 yrs into his Presidency



People have been saying in regards to this administration since day one to not blame Bush since Obama is President now, as if all Bush did isn't relevant....that we somehow got to this point and position though osmosis



bush was responding to what he was told right? or did bush actually make up the wmd's as a ploy to drag america into war?
KAWboy14
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Austin, TX US
8/24/2010 3:30pm
wasnt there a guy in here saying the dow was going to drop .........what was his name?



by the way if your looking for a good investment to replace stocks....Life Settlements!
Frogman
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Washington, DC US
8/24/2010 4:37pm Edited Date/Time 8/24/2010 4:37pm
KAWboy14 wrote:
wasnt there a guy in here saying the dow was going to drop .........what was his name? by the way if your looking for a good...
wasnt there a guy in here saying the dow was going to drop .........what was his name?



by the way if your looking for a good investment to replace stocks....Life Settlements!
I have been saying I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 9000 this calendar year. We got to 9600ish in July...lots of bad news left in the year. I doubt we see 11,000+ in the near future.

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