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OK guys, here's my usual late-season analysis. The 250 class may turn into a barnburner down the stretch, and although it's a long shot for anyone not named Dylan Ferrandis, the 450s aren't sealed up just yet. Here are the details:
250
Justin "The Future" Cooper leads the championship by three points over Jett Lawrence. Throw a blanket over them, as this could easily go either way. Barring any DNFs or disastrous motos, the championship is up for grabs.
Jeremy Martin is the wrench that could be thrown into the mix. He's Cooper's teammate, but sort of a lone wolf. Will he help out with team tactics? My gut says no. BTW, he's "only" 60 points back. If he wins both motos at a race that the other two miss for some reason, he's right back in this thing for himself.
Watch this space for more scenarios as this story unfolds.
450
Oh, it's starting to look good for Dylan Ferrandis. Ken Roczen barely eked out a 1st moto win last weekend, but Ferrandis reversed the order in the second, making for a net zero change in points. With only six motos remaining and 39 points to gain, Ken Roczen has only one way to win the championship: win everything and hope for help.
If he does win every moto, Roczen will amass 150 more points. Should Dylan Ferrandis take seconds in each moto, he will lose only 18 points to Roczen. Thirds? He'd lose only 30. Fourths or worse? That would do it, as he would lose 42 points and Roczen would win the title by 3 points. Likewise, all fourths and one third would see him lose 40 points and Roczen would win by one point.
So there you have it: Kroc must win out, and Dylan Ferrandis can finish no better than 4th, except for one moto 3rd. Any other scenario, and the title goes to Big Bleu. (See what I did there?)
Good luck to all the competitors!
250
Justin "The Future" Cooper leads the championship by three points over Jett Lawrence. Throw a blanket over them, as this could easily go either way. Barring any DNFs or disastrous motos, the championship is up for grabs.
Jeremy Martin is the wrench that could be thrown into the mix. He's Cooper's teammate, but sort of a lone wolf. Will he help out with team tactics? My gut says no. BTW, he's "only" 60 points back. If he wins both motos at a race that the other two miss for some reason, he's right back in this thing for himself.
Watch this space for more scenarios as this story unfolds.
450
Oh, it's starting to look good for Dylan Ferrandis. Ken Roczen barely eked out a 1st moto win last weekend, but Ferrandis reversed the order in the second, making for a net zero change in points. With only six motos remaining and 39 points to gain, Ken Roczen has only one way to win the championship: win everything and hope for help.
If he does win every moto, Roczen will amass 150 more points. Should Dylan Ferrandis take seconds in each moto, he will lose only 18 points to Roczen. Thirds? He'd lose only 30. Fourths or worse? That would do it, as he would lose 42 points and Roczen would win the title by 3 points. Likewise, all fourths and one third would see him lose 40 points and Roczen would win by one point.
So there you have it: Kroc must win out, and Dylan Ferrandis can finish no better than 4th, except for one moto 3rd. Any other scenario, and the title goes to Big Bleu. (See what I did there?)
Good luck to all the competitors!
Jett Lawrence leads Justin Cooper by 24 points going into the final. If he gains even one point on Cooper in moto 1, he will claim the championship- with a 25 point lead, Cooper could win moto 2 and Lawrence could DNF. They would tie on points, and Lawrence would win by more overalls.
For Cooper to win, his best bet is to win both motos. If he manages that, Jett would have to score no more than 25 points. That's a 2-DNF, or an 8-9 day.
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