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668
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4/16/2008
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Edited Date/Time
1/22/2012 5:54pm
Got to think'n...
After Daytona Bubba said "I know how to win and I don't need to change a thing"
After Daytona I made a post to the effect that given the history of this series, Bubba was crashing once every 3.67 races and with 6 races left, statistically speaking, he WOULD crash once before the series was over and it was likely he would hand the championship over to Reed if he didn't change anything.
Well, guess what? Bubba DID crash - BUT...
Statistically speaking, Bubba got his crash out of the way and should finish the series with out another crash. And we all know this years stat of Bubba winning 100% of the races he DOESN'T crash in.
Given Bubba's win statistic and his crash ratio and then factoring that Reed has ALWAYS finished second to Bubba when he doesn't crash, one can conclude that Bubba will win all the races from here on out and Reed will place second from here on out.
With the points at Reed 271 - Bubba 260 and a 3 point advantage for 1st with 5 races left - Bubba will win by 4 points.
Of course the future is unpredictable and there are infinite possibilites, but just given the historical facts - Bubba will win ....
After Daytona Bubba said "I know how to win and I don't need to change a thing"
After Daytona I made a post to the effect that given the history of this series, Bubba was crashing once every 3.67 races and with 6 races left, statistically speaking, he WOULD crash once before the series was over and it was likely he would hand the championship over to Reed if he didn't change anything.
Well, guess what? Bubba DID crash - BUT...
Statistically speaking, Bubba got his crash out of the way and should finish the series with out another crash. And we all know this years stat of Bubba winning 100% of the races he DOESN'T crash in.
Given Bubba's win statistic and his crash ratio and then factoring that Reed has ALWAYS finished second to Bubba when he doesn't crash, one can conclude that Bubba will win all the races from here on out and Reed will place second from here on out.
With the points at Reed 271 - Bubba 260 and a 3 point advantage for 1st with 5 races left - Bubba will win by 4 points.
Of course the future is unpredictable and there are infinite possibilites, but just given the historical facts - Bubba will win ....
Stewart's obviously faster, why not chill out a little, get in behind Ol' Reedy and put the pressure on him for 16-17 laps. Pressure him, then pass him last lap or two for the win.
Sounds simple enough, right?
What you're saying makes sense to me, but once again, if history and past performance are any indication of what's to come - Bubba will race like he always has - wide open and not holding back.
Sometimes I think that's the only speed he knows...
statistically speaking, he's got a win and a half left in him.
it's not a long shot for either to win.
but really we are the winners, the fans watching this great series unfold every weekend.
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And 14 in his last full season of SX.
Calling Stewart inconsistent can not be supported.
Bike didn't start at A1.
First turn pile up led to an out of character 7th.
And a few tip overs put him in 2nd.
So basically he's consistent. Just his miscues were more damaging points wise.
he crashed in 3 of 4. so that doesn't hold.
i really hope people aren't trying to find excuses as to why stewart might lose this thing. it's racing. shit happens. sometimes the fastest guy doesn't win. reed knows stewarts faster, but he knows he is more solid than stewart.
Stewart wins when he doesn't crash. Reed get's second when he doesnt crash.
Reed was 3rd at Anaheim and he ran in to the back of Stewart. So he robbed himself and Stewart.
I don't get any win bonuses from Suzuki or Yamaha!!!
GO REED!!
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