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Edited Date/Time
1/13/2012 6:57am
GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS
GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditiona…
GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditiona…
Gallup typically does a daily tracking, this was a different type of polling with different segmentations and weighting
That's an abbreviated "Likely voter" (LV) poll
The expanded "Registered Voter" (RV) poll was at it's usual +6 for Obama and then their weighted RV poll was an even larger margin.
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/09 - 10/16 -- 49.5 42.6 Obama +6.9
Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 3000 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1210 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 804 LV 50 40 Obama +10
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/14 - 10/16 2155 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/14 - 10/16 2314 LV 51 45 Obama +6
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/12 - 10/16 800 LV 49 45 Obama +4
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/12 - 10/16 1020 LV 46 41 Obama +5
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/10 - 10/13 1030 LV 50 41 Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times 10/10 - 10/13 699 LV 53 39 Obama +14
USA Today/Gallup (Traditional)* 10/10 - 10/12 761 LV 50 46 Obama +4
USA Today/Gallup (Expanded)* 10/10 - 10/12 1030 LV 52 45 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/09 - 10/12 1191 LV 49 42 Obama +7
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/09 - 10/13 1036 RV 48 39 Obama +9
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I saw a commerical the other day that was advetising a Presidental debate between all the other parties running other than the Reps and Dems. Question: Why would you have 3rd party candidates debating each other instead of having them debate the Reps and Dems?
My comment is that it was said that Barr wouldnt make the debate as he had a previous engagement of some sort.
What would be more important to attend than a Prez debate (with free TV time) when youre running for President?
Regarding this post; I hope the race is super close and that once again the popular vote disagrees with the Electoral vote. I hope its so close that the losing party calls for a recount and claims voter fraud. Should be great entertainment.
Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, CA conducted the survey, interviewing 873 Democrats and 650 Republicans between October 3-13.
Other interesting findings were Obama's likeability was up 13% over the chronology of the survey and his perceived dicisiveness doubled during the same time frame. McCain showed improvements in both categories, but much less dramatic.
Respondents of the survey showed a worsening pessimism about the direction of the country, with 85 percnt of respondents feeling the country was heading on the "wrong track."
For what it's worth, and not crapping on it just saying so for clarity, the AP/Yahoo poll seems to be a bit of a strange poll, as they continually ask the same people over and over and have been sampling the same group since Nov/Dec of last year, basically tracking them alone.
Does that invalidate it?
No, I don't think so, but it is a factor that needs to be considered and is partly why it's not used in polling averages or quoted very often
This is a year when the electorate will turn the polls upsidedown. We had a taste of this during the 2000 and 2004 national election returns when all the polls up to election day had GWB losing by 1 to 5 percentage points.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2103699/posts
1-5% pts is typically within the margins of error, which vary from poll to poll (most are 1-3%)
If a poll falls within their margin of error, it is to be considered a statistical tie
Polls should never be trusted.
They're only a trending and guidance tool.
They have a purpose and are valid, when read and understood in its proper context.
However, with this election, probably not.
People are motivated and registrations are way up and have been, and we're talking about registrations directly with the states, not via contracted registrars (like ACORN)
Youth and Black voter turnout is predicted to exceed all previous elections.
Also keep in mind, a "Likely Voter" is one who votes in ALL ELECTIONS including local elections.
Many do not do that, many vote primarily "bigger" elections and ignore smaller local elections.
It's not that LV is a bad poll, but for a presidential and especially this presidential, it's not going to be that accurate
Absurd!? But I believe it will happen, because the days of rigged elections by the republicans have only just begun, and the Bradley factor is about to rear its head again.
They also agree that past performance and "tradition" is being pushed aside and the election maps will have large changes
Post a reply to: Uh, Oh!