Rumblins at Harley

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4/2/2020 4:02 PM

The Head guy that was behind the electric movement, gone as of yesterday.
A few more higher ups, poof.
Rumors abound.
They’re gonna split the apparel and bike divisions into 2 different companies.
They’re gonna drop the electric and small bikes stuff and just go back to making big cruisers.
They’re gonna be bought by BMW.
Unsettled times at Orange&Black.

https://www.visordown.com/news/industry/harley-davidson-and-impala-settle-new-ceo

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4/2/2020 4:05 PM

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4/2/2020 4:11 PM

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

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4/2/2020 4:24 PM

AHRMA361 wrote:

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

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4/2/2020 4:25 PM

AHRMA361 wrote:

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

I don’t think so. I really don’t think Indian has a billion and change laying around.
And really. I don’t see a lot of banks wantin to lend on
that deal right now.

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4/2/2020 4:27 PM

AHRMA361 wrote:

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

tcannon521 wrote:

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

Lighten up McGraw.
A lot of people don’t realize how big the mother ship actually is.

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4/2/2020 4:31 PM

motogrady wrote:

The Head guy that was behind the electric movement, gone as of yesterday.
A few more higher ups, poof.
Rumors abound.
They’re gonna split the apparel and bike divisions into 2 different companies.
They’re gonna drop the electric and small bikes stuff and just go back to making big cruisers.
They’re gonna be bought by BMW.
Unsettled times at Orange&Black.

https://www.visordown.com/news/industry/harley-davidson-and-impala-settle-new-ceo

The old CEO is right for the long term viability of HD. Unfortunately, like all publicly traded companies they focus on quarter to quarter profitability, so that means they must want to milk the last of the boomers and then be way behind or go out of business from lack of relevant products. Of course, they have to stay in business during the transition but not aggressively planning for the future in their situation will be detrimental in my opinion.

Here’s my personal example with HD. I’m 41 and no HD models excite me other than the Livewire, Pan America and the Fat Bob 114. All 3 of those bikes are far from traditional HD motorcycles.

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4/2/2020 4:35 PM

motogrady wrote:

The Head guy that was behind the electric movement, gone as of yesterday.
A few more higher ups, poof.
Rumors abound.
They’re gonna split the apparel and bike divisions into 2 different companies.
They’re gonna drop the electric and small bikes stuff and just go back to making big cruisers.
They’re gonna be bought by BMW.
Unsettled times at Orange&Black.

https://www.visordown.com/news/industry/harley-davidson-and-impala-settle-new-ceo

tcannon521 wrote:

The old CEO is right for the long term viability of HD. Unfortunately, like all publicly traded companies they focus on quarter to quarter profitability, so that means they must want to milk the last of the boomers and then be way behind or go out of business from lack of relevant products. Of course, they have to stay in business during the transition but not aggressively planning for the future in their situation will be detrimental in my opinion.

Here’s my personal example with HD. I’m 41 and no HD models excite me other than the Livewire, Pan America and the Fat Bob 114. All 3 of those bikes are far from traditional HD motorcycles.

Ya, I’m with you guy.
I visited a dealer a few months ago.
Was disappointed no live wire there.

Rumor has it they just had had enough.
I mean, half the value of that company is gone.
That guy I believe didn’t quit, IMO his ass got canned

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4/2/2020 4:38 PM

motogrady wrote:

Ya, I’m with you guy.
I visited a dealer a few months ago.
Was disappointed no live wire there.

Rumor has it they just had had enough.
I mean, half the value of that company is gone.
That guy I believe didn’t quit, IMO his ass got canned

They had a lot at Bike Week this year and the rides were always booked up from what their employees stated.

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4/2/2020 4:42 PM

Well, they haven't built a bike since March 19th. Before that they were only building a handful of Live Wires each day. It'll be interesting to see what this does to them.

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4/2/2020 4:43 PM

tcannon521 wrote:

The old CEO is right for the long term viability of HD. Unfortunately, like all publicly traded companies they focus on quarter to quarter profitability, so that means they must want to milk the last of the boomers and then be way behind or go out of business from lack of relevant products. Of course, they have to stay in business during the transition but not aggressively planning for the future in their situation will be detrimental in my opinion.

Here’s my personal example with HD. I’m 41 and no HD models excite me other than the Livewire, Pan America and the Fat Bob 114. All 3 of those bikes are far from traditional HD motorcycles.

motogrady wrote:

Ya, I’m with you guy.
I visited a dealer a few months ago.
Was disappointed no live wire there.

Rumor has it they just had had enough.
I mean, half the value of that company is gone.
That guy I believe didn’t quit, IMO his ass got canned

tcannon521 wrote:

They had a lot at Bike Week this year and the rides were always booked up from what their employees stated.

Yeah, contrary to popular belief, I hear they do a lot of that kind of promotion.

I tell you guys, it will be a dark day in American Motorcycling, heck, American Industry, if that show goes belly up or is sold to an overseas concern.

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4/2/2020 4:46 PM

Hman144 wrote:

Well, they haven't built a bike since March 19th. Before that they were only building a handful of Live Wires each day. It'll be interesting to see what this does to them.

Well that’s scary. But add the virus thing, who knows.

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4/2/2020 4:48 PM

motogrady wrote:

Yeah, contrary to popular belief, I hear they do a lot of that kind of promotion.

I tell you guys, it will be a dark day in American Motorcycling, heck, American Industry, if that show goes belly up or is sold to an overseas concern.

If that happens, it will have happened for a very good reason IMO

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4/2/2020 4:51 PM

tcannon521 wrote:

They had a lot at Bike Week this year and the rides were always booked up from what their employees stated.

motogrady wrote:

Yeah, contrary to popular belief, I hear they do a lot of that kind of promotion.

I tell you guys, it will be a dark day in American Motorcycling, heck, American Industry, if that show goes belly up or is sold to an overseas concern.

zehn wrote:

If that happens, it will have happened for a very good reason IMO

Yeah, whatever Zehn.

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4/2/2020 4:52 PM

AHRMA361 wrote:

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

tcannon521 wrote:

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

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4/2/2020 4:56 PM
Edited Date/Time: 4/2/2020 4:59 PM

motogrady wrote:

Yeah, whatever Zehn.

tcannon hit on it perfectly above. They don't make products that appeal to the younger generations and they're struggling greatly because of it. I'm not saying they should or deserve to be sold, go out of business, etc. but it's pretty simple why they are in the the position they are currently in

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4/2/2020 4:56 PM

AHRMA361 wrote:

Maybe Indian will buy them?

too soon?

tcannon521 wrote:

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

APLMAN99 wrote:

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

True.
Apparently some investment company that owns 2%
is trying to get guys on the board.

How does owning 2% of anything get u that kind of clout?

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4/2/2020 4:59 PM

When I first saw reviews of the Livewire, with it's limited range and outrageous price, I said that would be the final nail in the coffin. I would bet that they have a LOT of money tied up in that debacle.

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4/2/2020 4:59 PM

zehn wrote:

If that happens, it will have happened for a very good reason IMO

motogrady wrote:

Yeah, whatever Zehn.

zehn wrote:

tcannon hit on it perfectly above. They don't make products that appeal to the younger generations and they're struggling greatly because of it. I'm not saying they should or deserve to be sold, go out of business, etc. but it's pretty simple why they are in the the position they are currently in

Yeah, we know.

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4/2/2020 5:02 PM

tcannon521 wrote:

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

APLMAN99 wrote:

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

motogrady wrote:

True.
Apparently some investment company that owns 2%
is trying to get guys on the board.

How does owning 2% of anything get u that kind of clout?

They just have to convince more of the shareholders, really. Obviously the holders of 2% of the voting stock won't get their way if the other 98% vote against them, but they only have to convince another 48.1% of the shareholders to agree......

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4/2/2020 5:02 PM

just James wrote:

When I first saw reviews of the Livewire, with it's limited range and outrageous price, I said that would be the final nail in the coffin. I would bet that they have a LOT of money tied up in that debacle.

Probably. That’s the feeling I had/have.

Another Cannondale/Alta/Griffin deal.
Effing overkill to the point it puts em out of business.

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4/2/2020 5:10 PM

APLMAN99 wrote:

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

motogrady wrote:

True.
Apparently some investment company that owns 2%
is trying to get guys on the board.

How does owning 2% of anything get u that kind of clout?

APLMAN99 wrote:

They just have to convince more of the shareholders, really. Obviously the holders of 2% of the voting stock won't get their way if the other 98% vote against them, but they only have to convince another 48.1% of the shareholders to agree......

Yep.
Scary thing is, there’s no Willie G to contend with anymore.
Read the bios of all the board members.
None really strike me as bike guys.
All tree huggers and sneaker makers .

That’s scary.

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4/2/2020 5:12 PM
Edited Date/Time: 4/2/2020 5:14 PM

APLMAN99 wrote:

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

Polaris:

Cash on Hand: 157 Million

Long Term Debt: 1.6 Billion

Total Liabilities: 3.3 Billion

Total Assets: 4.4 Billion

Gross Revenue: 6.7 Billion

2019 Profit: 324 Million


HD:

Cash on Hand: 898 Million

Long Term Debt: 5.1 Billion

Total Liabilities: 8.7 Billion

Total Assets: 10.5 Billion

Gross Revenue: 5.3 Billion

2019 Profit: 424 Million


I don't see anyway your proposal works. Do you?

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4/2/2020 5:13 PM

Rather than trying to compete with Japanese bikes and keep up with demand in the 90s-10, they should have kept supply just below demand. They lived on mystique. High demand is what kept the mystique alive and showrooms selling all of their inventory.

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No Signature.

4/2/2020 5:14 PM

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Go for it! Don't let a little thing like fear, or common sense hold you back.

4/2/2020 5:26 PM

I mean I have to kind of half agree.
That blue bike in the link you provided, and thanks by the way for doing so, is a corporate attempt to mimick their big dirttracker.
Which, style wise they already had for years with the xr750.
Look at Indians street legal dirt tracker, which by the way is in reality not even close to the actual racers.
Effin bad ass.

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4/2/2020 5:27 PM

It bums me out to see Harley struggling, but they've been shooting themselves in the foot. Their quality has gone way down, but they still have a premium price tag. They've also flooded the market. There is so many nice later model used Harleys for sale at a fraction of the cost of a new one.

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4/2/2020 5:28 PM
Edited Date/Time: 4/2/2020 5:28 PM

SEEMEFIRST wrote:

Then they roll out this abortion...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/jalopnik.com/harley-davidson-has-some-neat-new-motorcycles-in-the-wo-1842616655/amp

motogrady wrote:

I mean I have to kind of half agree.
That blue bike in the link you provided, and thanks by the way for doing so, is a corporate attempt to mimick their big dirttracker.
Which, style wise they already had for years with the xr750.
Look at Indians street legal dirt tracker, which by the way is in reality not even close to the actual racers.
Effin bad ass.

It's hideous.

And you're welcome.

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Go for it! Don't let a little thing like fear, or common sense hold you back.

4/2/2020 5:29 PM

tcannon521 wrote:

These statements always crack me up.. Polaris (who owns Indian) is basically worth the same as HD. Will you explain to me how Polaris comes up with about 3 billion dollars to purchase HD?

APLMAN99 wrote:

Leverage, obviously. M&A transactions don't have to occur with straight cash.

tcannon521 wrote:

Polaris:

Cash on Hand: 157 Million

Long Term Debt: 1.6 Billion

Total Liabilities: 3.3 Billion

Total Assets: 4.4 Billion

Gross Revenue: 6.7 Billion

2019 Profit: 324 Million


HD:

Cash on Hand: 898 Million

Long Term Debt: 5.1 Billion

Total Liabilities: 8.7 Billion

Total Assets: 10.5 Billion

Gross Revenue: 5.3 Billion

2019 Profit: 424 Million


I don't see anyway your proposal works. Do you?

Well, I didn't actually make a proposal so there's that.....

Then there's the part that the things you are listing may not really even matter in a leveraged buyout.

Think of it this way, you decide that you want to buy a business in your town. Do you have to have a larger business with more revenue or profits in order to finance the purchase of that business?

No.

You need to convince a lender that your plan to operate that business is profitable at a level that will enable you to pay them back for financing the purchase.

Hypothetically, if Polaris could convince lenders that they could purchase at least 50.1% or so of the ownership of H-D and turn a profit enough to pay that back with their business plan, they could leverage a buyout.

All of that is hypothetical, of course, but the general idea happens all the time.

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4/2/2020 6:31 PM

when they describe the new models as 'neat' your in trouble,

the blue bike is ugly,

however the cafe racer looks a bit like a buell, and they were popular down here, but dont think they were that popular in the states

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