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Location
Oregon City, OR
US
Edited Date/Time
3/18/2021 4:18pm
38 Interesting predictions.
1 — Auto repair shops will disappear..
2 — A gas/diesel engine has about (?) 20,000 individual parts... an electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...
3 — Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...
4 — Your electric motor malfunction light goes on ... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...
5 — Gas stations will go away...
6 — Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations ... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...
7 — Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars..
8 — The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...
9 — Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof??
10 — A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...
11 — In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening??
12 — What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5–10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...
13 — Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days??
14 — Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...
15 — It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...
16 — Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...
17 — Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries ... (in the next 5 to 10 years...
18 — UBER is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...
19 — AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...
20 — Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world ... (10 years earlier than expected)...
21 — In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON) ... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff ... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, STOP IMMEDIATELY... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...
22 — WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer ... it's 4 times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...
23 — Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...
24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...
25 — You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's licence and they will never own a car..
26 — This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...
27 — About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...
28 — Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt... They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...
29 — Look at what Volvo is doing right now ... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...
30 — Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...
31 — Insurance companies will have massive trouble too ... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...
32 — Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home ... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.
33 — Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...
34 — Cities will have much cleaner air...
35 — Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free..
36 — Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years ... but you can now see the burgeoning impact ... and it's just starting to get ramped up...
37 — Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid ... to prevent competition from home solar installations ... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...
38 — Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...
WELCOME TO TOMORROW — To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."
1 — Auto repair shops will disappear..
2 — A gas/diesel engine has about (?) 20,000 individual parts... an electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...
3 — Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...
4 — Your electric motor malfunction light goes on ... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...
5 — Gas stations will go away...
6 — Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations ... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...
7 — Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars..
8 — The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...
9 — Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof??
10 — A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...
11 — In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening??
12 — What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5–10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...
13 — Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days??
14 — Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...
15 — It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...
16 — Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...
17 — Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries ... (in the next 5 to 10 years...
18 — UBER is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...
19 — AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...
20 — Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world ... (10 years earlier than expected)...
21 — In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON) ... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff ... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, STOP IMMEDIATELY... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...
22 — WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer ... it's 4 times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...
23 — Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...
24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...
25 — You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's licence and they will never own a car..
26 — This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...
27 — About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...
28 — Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt... They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...
29 — Look at what Volvo is doing right now ... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...
30 — Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...
31 — Insurance companies will have massive trouble too ... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...
32 — Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home ... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.
33 — Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...
34 — Cities will have much cleaner air...
35 — Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free..
36 — Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years ... but you can now see the burgeoning impact ... and it's just starting to get ramped up...
37 — Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid ... to prevent competition from home solar installations ... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...
38 — Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...
WELCOME TO TOMORROW — To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."
Solar panels are a bit of an eyesore, but I'm not big on aesthetics. . . especially to the point that I can eliminate the need to pay my electric bill. If I could power my house with solar I would. But the costs and reliability would have to align with my current budget and usage before I entertain the idea. I think it is something like a 10-15 year cost recovery period and at that point, you'll probably need a system overhaul that will dig that hole a little larger.
The Shop
I have huge issue with your assumption that there will be no need for oil or coal (or natural gas here in europe). I was curious and looked into how is electricity made on Hawaii. Bro, you guys are running really high on oil. I can't see even that tiny island surviving without seweral oil power plants in upcoming future.
You guys in US have a huge advantage in fossil fuels as power source. That is that there is 0 foreign politics in it. Here in Europe we (meaning the few reasonable countries with electricity surplus that battle the ever looming blackout from now non-nuclear germany) would like to switch from coal to natural gas... but it makes us atleast partially dependable on Russia, which isn't the most reliable partner in anything to be frank. So it comes down to politics and EU regulations which in other words is just nipple cramp on the testies.
If building nuclear power plants wouldn't be so overpriced and didn't take like 25 years i would have more faith in the electrical grid being able to withstand your drastic prediction. Centralised battery storage and balls-to-the-walls solar-wind only combo makes me physically sick and worried. Decentralised batteries and low scale power production in homes is fine by me.
I do agree that electric motor is from technical standpoint briliant and if it goes bad you just swap it - no problem - but it needs power source/battery and that is the thorn in a foot so far...
What i am affraid of the most for the future is that due to the powergrid constrains owning a personal car will be the thing of past. The freedom of movement is key for me. So everyone please feel free to switch to electric cars i will be looking into Audi R8 on ecomaniac's discount at that time.
Maybe i'm delusional. Feel free to bash me.
You have to destroy a lot of forests to charge those batteries and the avaliable grid seems to be a huge problem for just the tiny amount out there already. People don't realize how expensive EV is, not only do you have a car payment, insurance and charge fees but you also have to have a membership and a stack of exponential fees. It will be a lot more expensive to drive and you can be powered up and down by another entity at their discretion. Also think about all the people who buy used cars off a lot for 10k or less. There will not be anything available like that so lots of people wil be carless unless you have lots of money. I am not against it at all and will buy one soon but just pointing out that it will make life a lot more expensive and restricted actually. The majority will vote against their best interest as a general rule since the dawn of time. That's why there is a 1 percent. It's not about the money, it just a result of the 1 percent having all the common sense and money is the result.
Do you think prisons want people to stop doing crime? They get paid by filling that prison. Crime stops, pay stops. It's the same with the government. They don't want you taking care of yourself, they want you dependent on them, its their whole goal. With ev's it will push a whole lot more of people into poverty because it's essentially a rich person's model.
The financial obstacle of buying one is enough of a burden here so the legislation tries to make "financial returns" during the use of it. But i can see governments trying to cut their losses from less gasoline tax money by making consumer electricity more expensive by additional taxation in here.
“You can’t stop what’s coming. That’s vanity.”
I think it means that the only constant in life is change.
If I’m wrong, someone please help a brother out - I’ve been thinking that’s what it means for the past 25 years.
Predict Nuclear energy will be source for energy. Clean, efficient, works anywhere. Many Uranium deposits. Prediction are based under ideal conditions, which is very few places. Many modern world live in cold climates. Require mega power.
If the panels are inclined to get the optimal amount of sun, then snow/winter doesn't seem to affect them all that much. Here's a study conducted in Alberta that shows the details. They are using some decent latitudes, too (53 and 55 degrees).
The flat panels definitely didn't perform as well, obviously, but then again they didn't perform as well in the "full sun" either.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8iovcGawVd-Ri02Q090Y29Xbzg/view
https://onemileatatime.com/united-airlines-archer-electric-air-taxis/
All the solar panels in you can dream of don't make enough power to light a 3 watt bug bulb when it's night time, under 3 feet of snow, or when it's dark due to storms. For those in the southern states, solar can be a great thing, but not everyone lives there. Despite claims to the contrary, solar isn't for everyone; how about in Alaska where the sun doesn't come up for months on end? You aren't storing the energy from when the sun wouldn't go down for months.
Combined with fossil fuels, nuclear and battery backup, solar has a strong future. Relying on renewables only will spell disaster.
Massive Solar flare. Technology all goes poof.
Mad Max style of "civilization" takes over.
Pit Row
The one that I cannot get out of my head?
*When information is able to be disseminated in “real time”, without the process of editing and fact-checking prior to “print”, consumers of the information will not be able to discern “real” information from that which is “fake”.
Spot on.
We no longer have news pretty much these days.
It's more a race to scoop the BS story of the day (or hour).
But how the first “scoop” is jaded to fit a specific narrative, the following reconciliation of the story is irrelevant.
“He who gets the story out first wins”, no matter how much bullshit was spread over the true facts.
People look for stories that confirm their bias, won’t listen to other opinions. They also don’t care if the information they used to confirm their bias is later proven to be false.
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